Question

Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction

50.2%

(35% - 65%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50.2%

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Group co-led by Fei-Fei Li suggests that AI safety laws should anticipate future risks

TechCrunch•Mar 20, 2025

What does OpenAI really want from Trump?

Verge•Mar 19, 2025

AI scientists are sceptical that modern models will lead to AGI

New Scientist•Mar 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

15%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

sandman

Opened:

Jan 23, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2025

AGI Readiness Index

Artificial Intelligence

Group co-led by Fei-Fei Li suggests that AI safety laws should anticipate future risks

TechCrunch•Mar 20, 2025

What does OpenAI really want from Trump?

Verge•Mar 19, 2025

AI scientists are sceptical that modern models will lead to AGI

New Scientist•Mar 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?

70%

Will every frontier AI lab collaborate with at least one other frontier lab on AI alignment or safety research, on January 1, 2030?

15%