Contributed by the AI Diffusion community.
Question
Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?
Total Forecasters10
Community Prediction
28%
(5% - 80%)
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Authors:
Opened:Jul 14, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 19, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
35%
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
45%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
5%
Authors:
Opened:Jul 14, 2025
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 19, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?
35%
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
45%
Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?
5%