AI Diffusion

10 Followers

23 Questions

Moderated by mghodak

0 comments

22 forecasters

Will the federal US government provide any financial incentives specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before 2030?

50%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

68 forecasters

Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?

99%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

62 forecasters

Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?

35%chance

Key Factors

Junior Developers and entry level knowledge workers.

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

72 forecasters

Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?

19%chance

4% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

11 forecasters

How many major US labor strikes with generative AI as one of their main reasons will start in 2029?

Current estimate

4.99 strikes

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

33 forecasters

Will global corporate spending on adoption of AI applications, infrastructure, and services reach or exceed $700 billion USD during 2029?

68%chance

Key Factors

Inflation

0 comments

7 forecasters

What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?

Current estimate

518B $

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

2 comments

33 forecasters

Will 20 million Americans be laid off from private sector jobs in any quarter before 2030?

16%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

Current estimate

17.8 companies

0 comments

9 forecasters

What will be the total US public spending on AI-related contracts in 2029?

Current estimate

15.4B $

0 comments

18 forecasters

What percent of workforce tasks performed in 2025 by humans will be primarily automated in 2029 in the United States?

Current estimate

32.9%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

25 forecasters

What percentage of global electricity consumption will be attributed to data centers in 2029?

Current estimate

6.22%

1 comment

12 forecasters

What percentage of workers will report that they use AI daily as a part of their role in 2029?

Current estimate

71.4%

Key Factors

Awareness of AI integration is limited
Sector-specific AI usage differences

0 comments

6 forecasters

What percentage of businesses surveyed in 2029 will cite regulatory uncertainty as a relevant risk of AI?

Current estimate

44.3%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?

30%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

What percentage of business leaders will describe their deployment of AI as "mature" in 2029?

Current estimate

39.8%

0 comments

7 forecasters

What percentage of firms will report difficulties hiring for AI-related roles in 2029?

Current estimate

46.2%

0 comments

9 forecasters

How many of the following countries will enact a national-level law that restricts the deployment of high-risk AI systems before 2030?

Current estimate

7.72 countries

0 comments

4 forecasters

How many of the following countries will enact a comprehensive national-level AI law before 2030?

Current estimate

7.87 countries

0 comments

13 forecasters

How quickly will companies put novel generative AI capabilities to use in 2029?

Current estimate

3.75 months

1 comment

10 forecasters

What percentage of businesses are using AI in five or more business functions in 2029?

Current estimate

63.5%

Key Factors

Software, SaaS and PaaS as baking it into everything. It will be everywhere for the most part invisible.

2 comments

What percentage of companies will report that at least 11% of their revenues is due to the use of generative AI in 2029?

community

result

Annulled

0 comments

7 forecasters

What percentage of companies will report that at least 11% of their EBIT is due to the use of generative AI in 2029?

Current estimate

54.4%