AI Diffusion

10 Followers

23 Questions

Moderated by mghodak

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4 forecasters

How many of the following countries will enact a comprehensive national-level AI law before 2030?

Current estimate

5.1 countries

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7 forecasters

What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?

Current estimate

363B $

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10 forecasters

How many of the 25 largest global companies will have a C-suite officer that specializes in AI, as of January 1, 2030?

Current estimate

14.8 companies

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

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10 forecasters

How many major US labor strikes with generative AI as one of their main reasons will start in 2029?

Current estimate

6.64 strikes

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6 forecasters

What percentage of businesses surveyed in 2029 will cite regulatory uncertainty as a relevant risk of AI?

Current estimate

33.2%

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7 forecasters

What percentage of companies will report that at least 11% of their EBIT is due to the use of generative AI in 2029?

Current estimate

44.1%

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7 forecasters

What percentage of firms will report difficulties hiring for AI-related roles in 2029?

Current estimate

38.6%

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9 forecasters

How many of the following countries will enact a national-level law that restricts the deployment of high-risk AI systems before 2030?

Current estimate

6.52 countries

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13 forecasters

How quickly will companies put novel generative AI capabilities to use in 2029?

Current estimate

3.18 months

1 comment

12 forecasters

What percentage of workers will report that they use AI daily as a part of their role in 2029?

Current estimate

62.3%

Key Factors

Awareness of AI integration is limited
Sector-specific AI usage differences

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9 forecasters

What will be the total US public spending on AI-related contracts in 2029?

Current estimate

29.9B $

1 comment

10 forecasters

What percentage of businesses are using AI in five or more business functions in 2029?

Current estimate

57.4%

Key Factors

Software, SaaS and PaaS as baking it into everything. It will be everywhere for the most part invisible.

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10 forecasters

What percentage of business leaders will describe their deployment of AI as "mature" in 2029?

Current estimate

41.3%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

25 forecasters

What percentage of global electricity consumption will be attributed to data centers in 2029?

Current estimate

5.74%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?

22.8%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

33 forecasters

Will 20 million Americans be laid off from private sector jobs in any quarter before 2030?

12%chance