Foresight Institute

10 Followers

17 Questions

0 comments

12 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

73%chance

1 comment

10 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

98%chance

0 comments

9 forecasters

Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?

48%chance

2 comments

8 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

Current estimate

14.7 GW

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

5 comments

30 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Jan 2068

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

8 comments

63 forecasters

How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?

Current estimate

183 reactors

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?

25%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

Embryo gene editing45.9%

In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)32.3%

Neither/Other21.8%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

16 forecasters

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Epigenetic reprogramming130

Senolytics93

Ozempic82.9

1 comment

25 forecasters

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

87%chance