Foresight Institute

8 Followers

17 Questions

0 comments

44 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

73%chance

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

97%chance

2% this week

1 comment

21 forecasters

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

87%chance

2.8% this week

2 comments

8 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

Current estimate

14.7 GW

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

16 forecasters

What percentage of their January 2024 search interest will these longevity interventions retain in January 2030?

Epigenetic reprogramming130

Senolytics93

Ozempic82.9

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

5 comments

29 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Apr 2064

0 comments

9 forecasters

Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?

48%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

Embryo gene editing45.9%

In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)32.3%

Neither/Other21.8%

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?

25%chance

1 comment

16 forecasters

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

17%chance