Foresight Institute

12 Followers

17 Questions

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

4 comments

33 forecasters

Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?

resultNo

3 comments

14 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

resultNo

2 comments

11 forecasters

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

Current estimate

17 GW

0 comments

4 forecasters

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)

32.3%

Embryo gene editing

45.9%

Neither/Other

21.8%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

8 comments

65 forecasters

How many nuclear reactors will be in operation in the US on December 31, 2035?

Current estimate

156 reactors

0 comments

13 forecasters

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?

25%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

5 comments

33 forecasters

In what year will the first private citizen become a permanent off-Earth resident?

Current estimate

Sep 2064

1 comment

19 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

94.4%chance

0 comments

17 forecasters

Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?

15%chance

2 comments

36 forecasters

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

86%chance

1 comment

24 forecasters

Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?

12%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

When will the first privately governed charter city have 10,000 residents?

Current estimate

Dec 2067

0 comments

6 forecasters

When will the following milestones in mapping and reconstruction of a mouse (or larger) brain be completed?

0 comments

13 forecasters

Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?

29.3%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

20 forecasters

Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?

3%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

42 forecasters

Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?

1%chance