Kiko Llaneras Tournament 🔮

239 Followers

35 Questions

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

10 comments

322 forecasters

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?

15%chance

21 comments

1.4k forecasters

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

30%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

79 comments

1.8k forecasters

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

6%chance

4% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

19 comments

631 forecasters

Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?

2%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

359 forecasters

Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?

85%chance

6% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

2 comments

335 forecasters

Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?

96%chance

3% this week

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1 comment

393 forecasters

Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?

resultYes

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

67 comments

2.1k forecasters

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

1%chance

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1 comment

430 forecasters

Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?

2%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

90 comments

1.8k forecasters

Will Elon Musk cease to be an advisor to Donald Trump and face public criticism from Donald Trump before 2026?

resultYes