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Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts
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12
Questions
Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?
Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?
Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?
0.1%
chance
Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?
99.9%
chance
Will companies' adoption to production-grade AI systems scaled out in the real-world be tentative?
Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?
Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?
Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?
19%
chance
Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?
99.9%
chance
Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?
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