Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

1 Followers

12 Questions

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?

1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will companies' adoption to production-grade AI systems scaled out in the real-world be tentative?

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?

99.9%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment

11 forecasters

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

0.1%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

99.9%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?

0.5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

M

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?

Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?

Will companies' adoption to production-grade AI systems scaled out in the real-world be tentative?

Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?

Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?

Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?

Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?

Will profits from AI models continue to be modest?

Will companies' adoption to production-grade AI systems scaled out in the real-world be tentative?

Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?

Will driverless cars — in which no human is required to attend to traffic — continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities?

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?

Will many radiologists be replaced by AI in 2025?