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Risk Threshold Forecasting
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When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached AI R&D risk level 5?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?
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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?
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When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?
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