Risk Threshold Forecasting
7 Followers
34 Questions
When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
Current estimate
19 Apr 2030
When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?
When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?
When will 75% accuracy be reached on LAB-Bench Cloning Scenarios by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?
When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?
00