Risk Threshold Forecasting

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34 Questions

Moderated by romeodean

1 comment

54 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

2 comments

2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

6 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

0 comments

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate

1 comment

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate

0 comments

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Autonomy level 1

Upcoming

Uplift level 1

Upcoming

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

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13 forecasters

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Current estimate

14 Apr 2028

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When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Current estimate

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

3 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

1 forecaster

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?

Current estimate

13 Sep 2028

0 comments

1 forecaster

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?

Current estimate

0 comments

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate

0 comments

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Current estimate

0 comments

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Current estimate