Risk Threshold Forecasting

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34 Questions

Moderated by romeodean

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2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

1 comment

54 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

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2 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following Biological and Chemical risk levels?

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When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Autonomy level 1

Upcoming

Uplift level 1

Upcoming

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6 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

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1 forecaster

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

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3 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

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2 forecasters

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?

Current estimate

13 Sep 2028

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1 forecaster

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Grok 3 scale model by xAI?

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When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?

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When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?

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