Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | ... | — |
| median | ... | — |
| upper 75% | ... | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2040 | — | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041