Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?
Total Forecasters1
Community Prediction
18 Jul 2029
(04 Dec 2028 - 04 Mar 2030)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 04 Dec 2028 | — |
| median | 18 Jul 2029 | — |
| upper 75% | 04 Mar 2030 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2040 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041
