Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?
Total Forecasters1
Community Prediction
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | >Jun 2036 | — |
| median | >Jun 2036 | — |
| upper 75% | >Jun 2036 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2036 | 98.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036