Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?
Total Forecasters3
Community Prediction
16 Oct 2027
(24 Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 24 Oct 2026 | — |
| median | 16 Oct 2027 | — |
| upper 75% | Nov 2031 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2036 | 21.7% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch