Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?
Total Forecasters1
Community Prediction
16 Dec 2028
(29 Aug 2027 - Jul 2030)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 29 Aug 2027 | — |
| median | 16 Dec 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2030 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2036 | 0.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2036
