Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
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3 forecasters
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?
Current estimate
16 Oct 2027
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Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2036
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2036
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 28, 2025