Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.
Question
When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction
Nov 2030
(19 Feb 2028 - Jul 2035)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 19 Feb 2028 | — |
| median | Nov 2030 | — |
| upper 75% | Jul 2035 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jun 2040 | 4.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2025
Closes:Jan 1, 2041
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2041
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 1, 2041