Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
Question
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
11 Feb 2028
(27 Aug 2026 - 03 Jan 2030)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 27 Aug 2026 | — |
| median | 11 Feb 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | 03 Jan 2030 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2034 | 2.1% | — |
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Sep 11, 2024
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:May 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 14, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Sep 11, 2024
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:May 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 14, 2024