Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=280
{ "count": 5887, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=260", "results": [ { "id": 38961, "title": "#13 - Will the City receive a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection in 2025?", "short_title": "#13 - The city receives a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection", "url_title": "#13 - The city receives a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection", "slug": "13-the-city-receives-a-250000-grant-for-stormwater-or-shoreline-protection", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:37.160820Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:06:34.452212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:53:16.935411Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38301, "title": "#13 - Will the City receive a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:37.161289Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze regularly applies for state and federal grants to fund projects that reduce flooding, improve drainage, and protect the shoreline. These funds help the City strengthen its infrastructure without putting extra costs on local taxpayers. In past years, Gulf Breeze has successfully brought in outside support for these kinds of environmental improvements. This forecast asks: will the City win a major grant — \\$250,000 or more — for stormwater or shoreline resiliency work during 2025? Know of a project that could benefit? Or have questions about how these grants are used? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\n## Resources and News\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program compliant with EPA and state regulations, engaging in education and infrastructure projects to reduce pollution and flooding ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n* The Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan highlights state-level efforts to support flood resilience and shoreline protection with substantial investments. This program funds eligible projects that help harden coastal infrastructure across the state ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n* Santa Rosa County, which includes Gulf Breeze, received over \\$8.5 million in state funding for water infrastructure and resilience projects in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. This includes grants to improve water supply and resiliency, indirectly supporting Gulf Breeze area infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n* The State of Florida’s water quality programs offer grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline projects. Gulf Breeze has access to competitive grants through programs like Protecting Florida Together, which facilitates multi-agency collaboration and grant funding for water-related projects ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze receives at least one external grant of \\$250,000 or more during calendar year 2025, specifically for stormwater management or shoreline resiliency efforts. If no such grant is awarded by the end of 2025, it resolves **No**. Official grant announcements and City records will be used to confirm.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38961, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286383.653493, "end_time": 1757784505.393, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286383.653493, "end_time": 1757784505.393, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.822963203915285 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze regularly applies for state and federal grants to fund projects that reduce flooding, improve drainage, and protect the shoreline. These funds help the City strengthen its infrastructure without putting extra costs on local taxpayers. In past years, Gulf Breeze has successfully brought in outside support for these kinds of environmental improvements. This forecast asks: will the City win a major grant — \\$250,000 or more — for stormwater or shoreline resiliency work during 2025? Know of a project that could benefit? Or have questions about how these grants are used? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\n## Resources and News\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program compliant with EPA and state regulations, engaging in education and infrastructure projects to reduce pollution and flooding ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n* The Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan highlights state-level efforts to support flood resilience and shoreline protection with substantial investments. This program funds eligible projects that help harden coastal infrastructure across the state ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n* Santa Rosa County, which includes Gulf Breeze, received over \\$8.5 million in state funding for water infrastructure and resilience projects in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. This includes grants to improve water supply and resiliency, indirectly supporting Gulf Breeze area infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n* The State of Florida’s water quality programs offer grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline projects. Gulf Breeze has access to competitive grants through programs like Protecting Florida Together, which facilitates multi-agency collaboration and grant funding for water-related projects ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))" }, { "id": 38960, "title": "#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?", "short_title": "#12 - City secures funding to design Poinciana septic-to-sewer project", "url_title": "#12 - City secures funding to design Poinciana septic-to-sewer project", "slug": "12-city-secures-funding-to-design-poinciana-septic-to-sewer-project", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:34.854477Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:01:59.564955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:53:04.595689Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38300, "title": "#12 - Will the City secure funding in 2025 to design the future Poinciana septic-to-sewer project?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:34.855001Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Poinciana neighborhood is part of Gulf Breeze's long-term plan to move all homes off septic systems and onto central sewer service. The Poinciana conversion is targeted for completion around 2029. But before any digging starts, the City must secure funding for design work — the engineering plans that guide construction. This forecast asks: will that design funding be in place before the end of 2025? Have ideas or questions about future septic-to-sewer projects? Please share in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Septic-to-Sewer Resources\n\n* **City Septic-to-Sewer Program overview:**\n [City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Updated April 2025. Overview of the citywide program, current and scheduled conversions, funding updates, and long-term goals.*\n* **Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan section (Poinciana mentioned):**\n [Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Program Plan 2021-2031](https://pubhtml5.com/ygar/ewje/basic/51-73)\n *Contains CIP projects, city priorities, and mentions of Poinciana and other neighborhoods in long-term funding strategies.*\n* **Construction project status for other neighborhoods (context for Poinciana):**\n [Highpoint Septic-to-Sewer Conversion - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/highpoint-septic-to-sewer-conversion/)\n *See current project implementation, typical funding process, and conversion steps. Useful for understanding stages similar to what Poinciana will undergo.*\n* **Recent grant awarded for Gulf Breeze septic-to-sewer conversions:**\n [Florida Trustees Seek Public Comment on Draft Restoration Plan 3 (Santa Rosa County Civic Alerts)](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1281\\&ARC=1630)\n *Describes a recent \\$12.8 million grant for Gulf Breeze septic-to-sewer work (March 2024); relevant for context and future grant strategies.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze secures funding specifically for design work on the Poinciana septic-to-sewer conversion project during calendar year 2025. If no such funding is secured by December 31, 2025, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757353560.163, "end_time": 1757784498.033, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757353560.163, "end_time": 1757784498.033, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6129905646330698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Poinciana neighborhood is part of Gulf Breeze's long-term plan to move all homes off septic systems and onto central sewer service. The Poinciana conversion is targeted for completion around 2029. But before any digging starts, the City must secure funding for design work — the engineering plans that guide construction. This forecast asks: will that design funding be in place before the end of 2025? Have ideas or questions about future septic-to-sewer projects? Please share in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Septic-to-Sewer Resources\n\n* **City Septic-to-Sewer Program overview:**\n [City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Updated April 2025. Overview of the citywide program, current and scheduled conversions, funding updates, and long-term goals.*\n* **Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan section (Poinciana mentioned):**\n [Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Program Plan 2021-2031](https://pubhtml5.com/ygar/ewje/basic/51-73)\n *Contains CIP projects, city priorities, and mentions of Poinciana and other neighborhoods in long-term funding strategies.*\n* **Construction project status for other neighborhoods (context for Poinciana):**\n [Highpoint Septic-to-Sewer Conversion - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/highpoint-septic-to-sewer-conversion/)\n *See current project implementation, typical funding process, and conversion steps. Useful for understanding stages similar to what Poinciana will undergo.*\n* **Recent grant awarded for Gulf Breeze septic-to-sewer conversions:**\n [Florida Trustees Seek Public Comment on Draft Restoration Plan 3 (Santa Rosa County Civic Alerts)](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1281\\&ARC=1630)\n *Describes a recent \\$12.8 million grant for Gulf Breeze septic-to-sewer work (March 2024); relevant for context and future grant strategies.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest.*" }, { "id": 38959, "title": "#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#11 - Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reaches at least 50% completion", "url_title": "#11 - Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reaches at least 50% completion", "slug": "11-hoffman-bayou-septic-to-sewer-project-reaches-at-least-50-completion", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:32.650626Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:03:12.083940Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:52:45.913816Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38299, "title": "#11 - Will the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project reach at least 50% completion by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:32.651026Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to replace septic systems across the city to protect local waterways and improve infrastructure. One of these efforts is the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer (STS) project, which will install new sewer lines and connect homes currently on septic tanks. Because the project is located near environmentally sensitive areas, it's considered especially important for long-term water quality. This forecast asks: will at least half of the Hoffman Bayou STS project be completed by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Hoffman Bayou Septic-to-Sewer Project Resources\n\n* The Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project is part of the City’s ongoing efforts to replace septic systems with centralized sewer service to protect local waterways.\n* According to the city’s 2025 Capital Improvement Program (CIP) and public works updates, this project is included and has site work and design phases active as of early to mid-2025.\n* The project is financially estimated around \\$1,675,000 and listed in the city’s active projects in the 2025-2029 CIP.\n\n***\n\n## Suggested Resource Links\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Current program status and multiple neighborhood projects including Hoffman Bayou.*\n* **Nightingale & Fairpoint Gravity System - 2025 CIP Listing**\n [https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023555-nightingale-fairpoint-gravity-system-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find\\_loc=florida-32561](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023555-nightingale-fairpoint-gravity-system-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n *This project related to Hoffman Bayou indicates CIP recognition and ongoing utility upgrades.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Program 2025-2029 (PDF)**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-\\_-1.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-_-1.pdf)\n *Official CIP document listing sewer and water projects including septic-to-sewer upgrades.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official project updates, funding reports, and completion percentages for Hoffman Bayou and related projects will be found here.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official reports from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that at least 50% of the total planned work for the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project is completed by December 31, 2025. If less than 50% is complete by that date, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286181.585978, "end_time": 1757781260.555, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286181.585978, "end_time": 1757781260.555, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6807783183768882 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to replace septic systems across the city to protect local waterways and improve infrastructure. One of these efforts is the Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer (STS) project, which will install new sewer lines and connect homes currently on septic tanks. Because the project is located near environmentally sensitive areas, it's considered especially important for long-term water quality. This forecast asks: will at least half of the Hoffman Bayou STS project be completed by December 31, 2025? Have thoughts or questions about this project? Please share in the comments — we'd love to hear from you!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Hoffman Bayou Septic-to-Sewer Project Resources\n\n* The Hoffman Bayou septic-to-sewer project is part of the City’s ongoing efforts to replace septic systems with centralized sewer service to protect local waterways.\n* According to the city’s 2025 Capital Improvement Program (CIP) and public works updates, this project is included and has site work and design phases active as of early to mid-2025.\n* The project is financially estimated around \\$1,675,000 and listed in the city’s active projects in the 2025-2029 CIP.\n\n***\n\n## Suggested Resource Links\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Current program status and multiple neighborhood projects including Hoffman Bayou.*\n* **Nightingale & Fairpoint Gravity System - 2025 CIP Listing**\n [https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023555-nightingale-fairpoint-gravity-system-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find\\_loc=florida-32561](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023555-nightingale-fairpoint-gravity-system-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n *This project related to Hoffman Bayou indicates CIP recognition and ongoing utility upgrades.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Program 2025-2029 (PDF)**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-\\_-1.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-_-1.pdf)\n *Official CIP document listing sewer and water projects including septic-to-sewer upgrades.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official project updates, funding reports, and completion percentages for Hoffman Bayou and related projects will be found here.*" }, { "id": 38958, "title": "#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#10 - Eufaula septic-to-sewer project completed", "url_title": "#10 - Eufaula septic-to-sewer project completed", "slug": "10-eufaula-septic-to-sewer-project-completed", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:30.414413Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:07:51.683605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:52:24.106615Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38298, "title": "#10 - Will the Eufaula septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:30.414897Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is replacing septic systems across the city to protect water quality and modernize its wastewater infrastructure. In the Eufaula neighborhood, this means connecting homes that currently use septic tanks to the city's main sewer system.\n\nThe City plans to complete this work in Eufaula by the end of 2025. This forecast asks: will the project wrap up on time?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Eufaula Septic-to-Sewer Project Resources\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Overview of the citywide septic-to-sewer conversion efforts, including project status updates, funding, and implementation timelines. Last updated April 2025.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Public Works Projects Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/)\n *Includes the current active projects such as Eufaula septic-to-sewer conversion with information for contractors and project updates.*\n* **Recent City Reports & Monthly Updates**\n [April 2025 Monthly Report - City of Gulf Breeze Controller](https://pubhtml5.com/ygar/gdbu/)\n *Monthly reports with infrastructure updates and financial reports related to utility projects, including wastewater system inspections.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official meeting records that provide project updates, progress reports, and confirmations of project completions.*\n\n*From* the city website program page: \n\n> 5.8.25: Staff has drafted a Request for Qualifications (RFQ) for the STS Engineering Program Manager and will present it to the GBRWS Board on June 19, 2025, for a recommendation to the City Council for approval.\n\n> 4.15.2025: The City was recently awarded a Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Grant totaling \\$12,219,200 to support the completion of all remaining septic-to-sewer (STS) conversion projects within the city limits. This funding presents a unique opportunity to advance conversion projects within the city limits. Four of the City's twelve STS project areas are under construction, or soon to be under construction: Highpoint STS, Fairpoint STS, Florida/Montrose STS, and Shoreline Phase I STS. While all projects are expected to be implemented successfully, the design and bidding of four separate projects with different engineering consultants and contractors have proved challenging, for example, inconsistent service and designs, and coordination challenges.\n\n> For the balance of the STS projects to be funded by the new \\$12 million grant, staff recommended moving forward with a consolidated STS Program and presented the following two strategies to the GBRWS Board on April 14, 2025: **Engineering Program Manager or a Progressive Design-Build with Incremental Funding.** The Engineering Program Manager offers a middle ground approach, preserving traditional construction bidding while adding consistency through a centralized engineering team. Progressive Design-Build represents a more modern and fully integrated approach suited for delivering the remaining STS areas efficiently and flexibly. The GBRWS Board recommended that the remaining septic-to-sewer areas within the city limits be designed and constructed under the oversight of a designated Engineering Program Manager. Staff will be draft an RFQ for the STS Engineering Program Manager to present to the GBRWS Board for a recommendation to the City Council for approval.", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Eufaula septic-to-sewer (STS) conversion project is fully completed by December 31, 2025. If the project is still ongoing after that date, it resolves **No**. Official city reports will be used to verify completion.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38958, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286460.75849, "end_time": 1757784624.574, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286460.75849, "end_time": 1757784624.574, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4835223030678896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7472393069716001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is replacing septic systems across the city to protect water quality and modernize its wastewater infrastructure. In the Eufaula neighborhood, this means connecting homes that currently use septic tanks to the city's main sewer system.\n\nThe City plans to complete this work in Eufaula by the end of 2025. This forecast asks: will the project wrap up on time?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Eufaula Septic-to-Sewer Project Resources\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Overview of the citywide septic-to-sewer conversion efforts, including project status updates, funding, and implementation timelines. Last updated April 2025.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Public Works Projects Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/)\n *Includes the current active projects such as Eufaula septic-to-sewer conversion with information for contractors and project updates.*\n* **Recent City Reports & Monthly Updates**\n [April 2025 Monthly Report - City of Gulf Breeze Controller](https://pubhtml5.com/ygar/gdbu/)\n *Monthly reports with infrastructure updates and financial reports related to utility projects, including wastewater system inspections.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official meeting records that provide project updates, progress reports, and confirmations of project completions.*\n\n*From* the city website program page: \n\n> 5.8.25: Staff has drafted a Request for Qualifications (RFQ) for the STS Engineering Program Manager and will present it to the GBRWS Board on June 19, 2025, for a recommendation to the City Council for approval.\n\n> 4.15.2025: The City was recently awarded a Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Grant totaling \\$12,219,200 to support the completion of all remaining septic-to-sewer (STS) conversion projects within the city limits. This funding presents a unique opportunity to advance conversion projects within the city limits. Four of the City's twelve STS project areas are under construction, or soon to be under construction: Highpoint STS, Fairpoint STS, Florida/Montrose STS, and Shoreline Phase I STS. While all projects are expected to be implemented successfully, the design and bidding of four separate projects with different engineering consultants and contractors have proved challenging, for example, inconsistent service and designs, and coordination challenges.\n\n> For the balance of the STS projects to be funded by the new \\$12 million grant, staff recommended moving forward with a consolidated STS Program and presented the following two strategies to the GBRWS Board on April 14, 2025: **Engineering Program Manager or a Progressive Design-Build with Incremental Funding.** The Engineering Program Manager offers a middle ground approach, preserving traditional construction bidding while adding consistency through a centralized engineering team. Progressive Design-Build represents a more modern and fully integrated approach suited for delivering the remaining STS areas efficiently and flexibly. The GBRWS Board recommended that the remaining septic-to-sewer areas within the city limits be designed and constructed under the oversight of a designated Engineering Program Manager. Staff will be draft an RFQ for the STS Engineering Program Manager to present to the GBRWS Board for a recommendation to the City Council for approval." }, { "id": 38957, "title": "#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?", "short_title": "#9 - Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project completed", "url_title": "#9 - Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project completed", "slug": "9-bay-cliffs-septic-to-sewer-project-completed", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:28.125188Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:09:49.460119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:59:55.437653Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38297, "title": "#9 - Will the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer project be completed by the end of 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:28.125586Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer conversion is one of several neighborhood projects in Gulf Breeze's plan to eliminate all septic tanks within city limits by 2029. With funding from a \\$12.8 million federal NRDA grant awarded in 2024, the City is working to connect homes in the Bay Cliffs area to the main sewer system and retire outdated septic systems.\n\nThis forecast asks: will all work on the Bay Cliffs project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nThe latest updates from the city website: \n\n> 8.5.2025: A redesign proposal for this project has been approved by City Council on 8.4.2025. This design process is expected to be completed December 2025, and anticipated construction starting February 2026.\n>  \n> 5.8.25: Staff is currently collaborating with GMC on the redesign proposal and expects to have all the necessary information to present the proposal to the GBRWS Board in June, seeking a recommendation for approval to the City Council.\n\n## Bay Cliffs Septic-to-Sewer Project — Key Recent Information\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze officially documents the Bay Cliffs STS Conversion project area, including Bay Cliffs Road and adjacent streets, with approximately 76 residential properties involved. Work includes surveying, design, lift station construction, septic abandonment, and property restoration. The project aims for a fully operational system once complete ([City of Gulf Breeze project page](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/bay-cliffs-sts-conversion/)).\n* The project has been recommended for redesign from a gravity sewer system to a low-pressure sewer (LPS) system as of April 2025, indicating active planning and adaptation efforts to optimize the infrastructure ([City project update](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/bay-cliffs-sts-conversion/)).\n* According to the City's Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for 2025-2029, the Bay Cliffs STS project features in city planning with ongoing site work and expected completion by late 2026. The project is recognized as part of the city’s commitment to eliminating septic systems by 2029 ([ConstructConnect listing](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023483-city-septic-to-sewer-conversion-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)) and ([City Septic to Sewer Program](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)).\n* The Florida Senate’s recent Local Funding Initiative requests list Bay Cliffs related septic-to-sewer funding and schedule construction to start in early 2026 with expected completion by December 31, 2026 ([Florida Senate PDF](https://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/FiscalYear/FY2025-26/LocalFundingInitiativeRequests/FY2025-26_S3108.pdf))", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer (STS) project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If significant work remains after that date, it resolves **No**. The city's official records will be used to determine the outcome.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38957, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286578.549545, "end_time": 1758675976.603, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286578.549545, "end_time": 1758675976.603, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6558976312346456 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18562954364815923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Bay Cliffs septic-to-sewer conversion is one of several neighborhood projects in Gulf Breeze's plan to eliminate all septic tanks within city limits by 2029. With funding from a \\$12.8 million federal NRDA grant awarded in 2024, the City is working to connect homes in the Bay Cliffs area to the main sewer system and retire outdated septic systems.\n\nThis forecast asks: will all work on the Bay Cliffs project be completed by the end of 2026?\n\nThe latest updates from the city website: \n\n> 8.5.2025: A redesign proposal for this project has been approved by City Council on 8.4.2025. This design process is expected to be completed December 2025, and anticipated construction starting February 2026.\n>  \n> 5.8.25: Staff is currently collaborating with GMC on the redesign proposal and expects to have all the necessary information to present the proposal to the GBRWS Board in June, seeking a recommendation for approval to the City Council.\n\n## Bay Cliffs Septic-to-Sewer Project — Key Recent Information\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze officially documents the Bay Cliffs STS Conversion project area, including Bay Cliffs Road and adjacent streets, with approximately 76 residential properties involved. Work includes surveying, design, lift station construction, septic abandonment, and property restoration. The project aims for a fully operational system once complete ([City of Gulf Breeze project page](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/bay-cliffs-sts-conversion/)).\n* The project has been recommended for redesign from a gravity sewer system to a low-pressure sewer (LPS) system as of April 2025, indicating active planning and adaptation efforts to optimize the infrastructure ([City project update](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/bay-cliffs-sts-conversion/)).\n* According to the City's Capital Improvement Program (CIP) for 2025-2029, the Bay Cliffs STS project features in city planning with ongoing site work and expected completion by late 2026. The project is recognized as part of the city’s commitment to eliminating septic systems by 2029 ([ConstructConnect listing](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023483-city-septic-to-sewer-conversion-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)) and ([City Septic to Sewer Program](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)).\n* The Florida Senate’s recent Local Funding Initiative requests list Bay Cliffs related septic-to-sewer funding and schedule construction to start in early 2026 with expected completion by December 31, 2026 ([Florida Senate PDF](https://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/FiscalYear/FY2025-26/LocalFundingInitiativeRequests/FY2025-26_S3108.pdf))" }, { "id": 38956, "title": "#8 - Will the city contract at least half of its old clay sewer pipes for relining by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#8 - Contract at least half of old clay sewer pipes for relining", "url_title": "#8 - Contract at least half of old clay sewer pipes for relining", "slug": "8-contract-at-least-half-of-old-clay-sewer-pipes-for-relining", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:25.800409Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:59:47.593996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:51:35.271767Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38296, "title": "#8 - Will the city contract at least half of its old clay sewer pipes for relining by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:25.800798Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to fix aging clay sewer pipes using a method called Cured-In-Place Pipe (CIPP) relining — a technique that reinforces underground pipes without having to dig them up. In total, about 46,577 feet of terracotta pipe have been flagged for this upgrade.\n\nThis effort is part of the city's push to modernize its sewer system and reduce the risk of failures or environmental harm. This forecast asks: will the city have awarded contracts to reline at least half of that total—over 23,000 feet—by the end of 2025?\n\nIf you live in an area affected by these upgrades or have thoughts on the project, feel free to share your input in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Sewer Pipe Relining Resources\n\n* **Clay Pipe Relining Initiative – City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/clay-pipe-relining-initiative/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/clay-pipe-relining-initiative/)\n *Details the city’s effort for relining aging terracotta sewer pipes as part of its Capital Improvement Plan to modernize infrastructure, reduce maintenance costs, and prevent system failures. (Updated April 2025)*\n* **State Legislation Related to Sewer Lateral Repairs (SB 1208)**\n [https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/1208/Analyses/2025s01208.en.PDF](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/1208/Analyses/2025s01208.en.PDF)\n *Fiscal impact and bill analysis for the Florida Service Lateral Assessment and Rehabilitation Act, establishing statewide standards and requirements for sewer lateral inspections and repairs. Relevant for understanding regulations affecting Gulf Breeze infrastructure.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Projects Overview Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/)\n *General project listing including sewer infrastructure improvements like pipe relining.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest on sewer pipe relining contracts and funding.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze has awarded construction contracts covering at least 23,289 linear feet of clay sewer pipe relining by December 31, 2025. If the total contracted footage falls short, it resolves **No**. The city's official contract records will be used to determine the outcome.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38956, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757285977.016759, "end_time": 1757781176.122, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757285977.016759, "end_time": 1757781176.122, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.59 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41000000000000003, 0.59 ], "means": [ 0.5834635529494822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to fix aging clay sewer pipes using a method called Cured-In-Place Pipe (CIPP) relining — a technique that reinforces underground pipes without having to dig them up. In total, about 46,577 feet of terracotta pipe have been flagged for this upgrade.\n\nThis effort is part of the city's push to modernize its sewer system and reduce the risk of failures or environmental harm. This forecast asks: will the city have awarded contracts to reline at least half of that total—over 23,000 feet—by the end of 2025?\n\nIf you live in an area affected by these upgrades or have thoughts on the project, feel free to share your input in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Sewer Pipe Relining Resources\n\n* **Clay Pipe Relining Initiative – City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/clay-pipe-relining-initiative/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/clay-pipe-relining-initiative/)\n *Details the city’s effort for relining aging terracotta sewer pipes as part of its Capital Improvement Plan to modernize infrastructure, reduce maintenance costs, and prevent system failures. (Updated April 2025)*\n* **State Legislation Related to Sewer Lateral Repairs (SB 1208)**\n [https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/1208/Analyses/2025s01208.en.PDF](https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/1208/Analyses/2025s01208.en.PDF)\n *Fiscal impact and bill analysis for the Florida Service Lateral Assessment and Rehabilitation Act, establishing statewide standards and requirements for sewer lateral inspections and repairs. Relevant for understanding regulations affecting Gulf Breeze infrastructure.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Projects Overview Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/)\n *General project listing including sewer infrastructure improvements like pipe relining.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest on sewer pipe relining contracts and funding.*" }, { "id": 38955, "title": "#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "7-will-the-montrose-and-florida-avenue-septic-to-sewer-project-finish-by-the-end-of-2026", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:23.469969Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:11:20.629056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:51:23.719341Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38295, "title": "#7 - Will the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project finish by the end of 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:23.470592Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is replacing septic tanks with central sewer connections across the city, including in two key neighborhoods: the Florida Avenue–Dolphin Street–Hillcrest area and the Montrose Boulevard–Navy Cove–Berry Avenue area.\n\nWork on this combined project is planned to begin in 2025, with construction expected to wrap up by Fall 2026. This forecast asks: will it all be done by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live in one of these neighborhoods or have thoughts about the septic-to-sewer upgrades, we'd love to hear from you in the comments.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Montrose and Florida Avenue septic-to-sewer project is fully completed by December 31, 2026. If work continues into 2027, the question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38955, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286669.550713, "end_time": 1758676188.789, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286669.550713, "end_time": 1758676188.789, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.6469363296046169 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.225425551112417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is replacing septic tanks with central sewer connections across the city, including in two key neighborhoods: the Florida Avenue–Dolphin Street–Hillcrest area and the Montrose Boulevard–Navy Cove–Berry Avenue area.\n\nWork on this combined project is planned to begin in 2025, with construction expected to wrap up by Fall 2026. This forecast asks: will it all be done by the end of 2026?\n\nIf you live in one of these neighborhoods or have thoughts about the septic-to-sewer upgrades, we'd love to hear from you in the comments." }, { "id": 38954, "title": "#6 - Will at least 100 homes switch from septic to sewer in 2025?", "short_title": "#6 - Will at least 100 homes switch from septic to sewer in 2025?", "url_title": "#6 - Will at least 100 homes switch from septic to sewer in 2025?", "slug": "6-will-at-least-100-homes-switch-from-septic-to-sewer-in-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:21.157042Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:07:29.657977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:51:10.025722Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38294, "title": "#6 - Will at least 100 homes switch from septic to sewer in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:21.157523Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to eliminate all septic systems within city limits by 2029. In 2024, the city received a \\$12.8 million grant to speed up these conversions. Several neighborhoods—including Highpoint, Montrose & Navy Cove, Florida & Dolphin Streets, and Bay Cliffs—are already seeing construction activity to connect homes to the sewer system.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will at least 100 homes be newly connected?\n\nHave thoughts about the septic-to-sewer program? Let us know in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Residential Sewer Connections Resources\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Overview of the sewer conversion program covering multiple neighborhoods including Highpoint, Montrose & Navy Cove, Florida & Dolphin Streets, and Bay Cliffs. Program progress and funding updates as of April 2025.*\n* **City Septic to Sewer Conversion Project Details**\n [City Septic to Sewer Conversion - ConstructConnect](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023483-city-septic-to-sewer-conversion-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n *Project included in the 2025-2029 Capital Improvement Program; contains contract and construction activity updates (March 2025).*\n* **Florida \\$12.8 Million Grant for Septic Conversion**\n [Florida Trustees Seek Public Comment on Draft Restoration Plan 3](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1281\\&ARC=1630)\n *Grant program supporting Gulf Breeze’s conversion efforts to improve water quality.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official records with updates, approvals, and confirmations regarding residential connections to the sewer system.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official City of Gulf Breeze records show that at least 100 residential properties were newly connected to the central sewer system between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38954, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757353552.752, "end_time": 1757781321.725, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757353552.752, "end_time": 1757781321.725, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7681045945979125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to eliminate all septic systems within city limits by 2029. In 2024, the city received a \\$12.8 million grant to speed up these conversions. Several neighborhoods—including Highpoint, Montrose & Navy Cove, Florida & Dolphin Streets, and Bay Cliffs—are already seeing construction activity to connect homes to the sewer system.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will at least 100 homes be newly connected?\n\nHave thoughts about the septic-to-sewer program? Let us know in the comments!\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Residential Sewer Connections Resources\n\n* **City Septic to Sewer Program (STS) - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/city-septic-to-sewer-program-s-t-s/)\n *Overview of the sewer conversion program covering multiple neighborhoods including Highpoint, Montrose & Navy Cove, Florida & Dolphin Streets, and Bay Cliffs. Program progress and funding updates as of April 2025.*\n* **City Septic to Sewer Conversion Project Details**\n [City Septic to Sewer Conversion - ConstructConnect](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023483-city-septic-to-sewer-conversion-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n *Project included in the 2025-2029 Capital Improvement Program; contains contract and construction activity updates (March 2025).*\n* **Florida \\$12.8 Million Grant for Septic Conversion**\n [Florida Trustees Seek Public Comment on Draft Restoration Plan 3](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1281\\&ARC=1630)\n *Grant program supporting Gulf Breeze’s conversion efforts to improve water quality.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official records with updates, approvals, and confirmations regarding residential connections to the sewer system.*" }, { "id": 38952, "title": "#5 - Will the Baybridge water and sewer replacement project be substantially complete by November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "#5 - Baybridge water and sewer replacement project is substantially complete", "url_title": "#5 - Baybridge water and sewer replacement project is substantially complete", "slug": "5-baybridge-water-and-sewer-replacement-project-is-substantially-complete", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:40.342291Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:05:52.577319Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:50:44.654888Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T17:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38292, "title": "#5 - Will the Baybridge water and sewer replacement project be substantially complete by November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:40.342688Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T17:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T17:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2024, Gulf Breeze began replacing old water and sewer systems in the Baybridge neighborhood near the Pensacola Bay Bridge. The work includes digging up and replacing water mains and sewer lines in both homes and businesses throughout the area. The project is currently scheduled to be finished by October 16, 2025.\n\nFrom the city project latest status update:\n\n> 5.7.25: **Notice of Construction – Road Closure – Buildings 104-118** Pensacola Concrete Construction (PCC) has informed the City that they will begin construction on the east side of the property, beginning approximately at the pool area and extending to Building 118. Therefore, this area will be **<u>closed</u>** to traffic during the week of **<u>May 12</u>** due to ongoing construction work. During this time, PCC will replace the sewer and water infrastructure and update the road base as they proceed, ensuring the roadway can be reopened and available for resident use once a section is complete. PCC anticipates reopening the area by May 19, or sooner if possible. We kindly request that residents make alternate parking arrangements until they can reaccess their driveways. We appreciate your continued patience and cooperation as we work to improve the community’s infrastructure. If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out.\n\nThis forecast asks: will the main construction work be done by the start of November 2025?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Baybridge Water and Sewer Replacement Project Resources\n\n* **Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/baybridge-water-sewer-replacement/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/baybridge-water-sewer-replacement/)\n *Project page with detailed construction updates through 2025, including phases completed, road closures, testing, and contractor progress. Last updated May 2025.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Bid Opportunities – Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement**\n [Florida Vendor Bid Portal - Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement](https://www.dms.myflorida.com/business_operations/state_purchasing/office_of_supplier_development_osd/vendor_resources/current_bid_opportunities/city_of_gulf_breeze_-_baybridge_water_sewer_replacement-_itb_9145576)\n *Official city bidding portal listing for construction contracts and bid documentation.*\n* **Florida Department of Environmental Protection Funding Announcement (April 2025)**\n [\\$836,196 awarded for Baybridge Water Replacement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)\n *Report on state funding to support water infrastructure upgrades including the Baybridge project.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official documents, contract awards, progress updates, special assessments, and construction approvals related to the Baybridge project may be found here.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the Baybridge water and sewer replacement project is substantially complete by November 1, 2025. If major construction work is still ongoing after that date, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286342.397383, "end_time": 1757781220.003, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286342.397383, "end_time": 1757781220.003, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.439913375827719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037828112710855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2024, Gulf Breeze began replacing old water and sewer systems in the Baybridge neighborhood near the Pensacola Bay Bridge. The work includes digging up and replacing water mains and sewer lines in both homes and businesses throughout the area. The project is currently scheduled to be finished by October 16, 2025.\n\nFrom the city project latest status update:\n\n> 5.7.25: **Notice of Construction – Road Closure – Buildings 104-118** Pensacola Concrete Construction (PCC) has informed the City that they will begin construction on the east side of the property, beginning approximately at the pool area and extending to Building 118. Therefore, this area will be **<u>closed</u>** to traffic during the week of **<u>May 12</u>** due to ongoing construction work. During this time, PCC will replace the sewer and water infrastructure and update the road base as they proceed, ensuring the roadway can be reopened and available for resident use once a section is complete. PCC anticipates reopening the area by May 19, or sooner if possible. We kindly request that residents make alternate parking arrangements until they can reaccess their driveways. We appreciate your continued patience and cooperation as we work to improve the community’s infrastructure. If you have any questions or concerns, please don’t hesitate to reach out.\n\nThis forecast asks: will the main construction work be done by the start of November 2025?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Baybridge Water and Sewer Replacement Project Resources\n\n* **Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement - City of Gulf Breeze**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/baybridge-water-sewer-replacement/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/baybridge-water-sewer-replacement/)\n *Project page with detailed construction updates through 2025, including phases completed, road closures, testing, and contractor progress. Last updated May 2025.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Bid Opportunities – Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement**\n [Florida Vendor Bid Portal - Baybridge Water & Sewer Replacement](https://www.dms.myflorida.com/business_operations/state_purchasing/office_of_supplier_development_osd/vendor_resources/current_bid_opportunities/city_of_gulf_breeze_-_baybridge_water_sewer_replacement-_itb_9145576)\n *Official city bidding portal listing for construction contracts and bid documentation.*\n* **Florida Department of Environmental Protection Funding Announcement (April 2025)**\n [\\$836,196 awarded for Baybridge Water Replacement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)\n *Report on state funding to support water infrastructure upgrades including the Baybridge project.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official documents, contract awards, progress updates, special assessments, and construction approvals related to the Baybridge project may be found here.*" }, { "id": 38951, "title": "#4 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion stay within its $64 million budget through the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#4 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion stay in budget", "url_title": "#4 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion stay in budget", "slug": "4-will-the-tiger-point-wastewater-treatment-facility-expansion-stay-in-budget", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:38.097130Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:10:42.765563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:50:21.487032Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38291, "title": "#4 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion stay within its $64 million budget through the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:38.097538Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding its Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to increase capacity and support future growth. This \\$64 million project is crucial for improving sewer infrastructure and transitioning neighborhoods from septic to sewer systems. The City is funding it through a mix of federal and state grants and a new \\$14 monthly capital improvement fee on utility bills.\n\nFrom the [city project page for the 1.5 MGD Expansion for Tiger Point Waste Water Treatment Facility:](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n\n> The Project Area is in Tiger Point. The work includes the construction of infrastructure to expand the treatment capacity of the existing wastewater treatment plant from 2.0 million gallons per day to 3.5 million gallons per day. The infrastructure includes constructing new oxidation ditches, water clarifiers, filters, and all other components necessary for a complete and operational wastewater treatment facility. It also includes the rehab and refurbishing of existing Bardenpho reactors to additional water reject storage tanks.\n\nBids were opened early 2024, and the bid was awarded April 2024. Construction began August 2024, and the estimated completion date for the project is January 2027. Construction is currently at 25% complete.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the total projected or actual cost of the project still be within the \\$64 million budget set in spring 2025?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Project Information\n\n* **Official project page:**\n [1.5 MGD Expansion for Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n *Contains detailed scope, funding info, project contacts, timeline (last updated April 2025, with active construction and budget information).*\n* **City's explanation of the \\$14 monthly sewer capital fee:**\n [Sewer Capital Fee - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/proposed-sewer-capital-fee/)\n *Explains how the \\$64 million project is funded, the city council’s May 2024 vote, and why the new fee structure was chosen. Useful for understanding budget, grants, and fees.*\n\n***\n\n## Recent News Stories\n\n* **News overview of funding and fee changes:**\n [Gulf Breeze will add \\$14 to customer bills to help fund wastewater expansion (WEAR-TV)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion)\n *Covers council approval, why the budget changed, and the project’s broader role in eliminating septic systems (May 2025).*\n* **News feature on project impact and costs:**\n [Gulf Breeze-area sewer costs are set to increase. Here's how much ... (Yahoo News)](https://www.yahoo.com/news/gulf-breeze-area-sewer-costs-090436348.html)\n *Breaks down the city’s search for \\$32 million, the role of grants, and cost drivers (April 2025).*\n\n***\n\n## Related Public Funding Documents\n\n* **Santa Rosa County RESTORE Act funding plan (Federal Grants):**\n [Santa Rosa County MYP Amendment 2 - Treasury Department (PDF)](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/216/SantaRosaCounty-MYP-Amendment2--2021.pdf)\n *Lists the Tiger Point WWTF expansion, federal and state funding streams, and some historic cost baselines (though the numbers are a little older).*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest.*\n\nIf you have thoughts about project costs, funding, or priorities—feel free to share in the comments!", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official reports from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that the Tiger Point WWTF expansion remains at or below a \\$64 million total cost as of December 31, 2025. If the project exceeds that budget by that date, it will resolve **No**. City council meeting records, budget updates, or published city financial reports will serve as the basis for resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38951, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286631.996871, "end_time": 1757781308.288, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286631.996871, "end_time": 1757781308.288, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.38047551931595486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding its Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to increase capacity and support future growth. This \\$64 million project is crucial for improving sewer infrastructure and transitioning neighborhoods from septic to sewer systems. The City is funding it through a mix of federal and state grants and a new \\$14 monthly capital improvement fee on utility bills.\n\nFrom the [city project page for the 1.5 MGD Expansion for Tiger Point Waste Water Treatment Facility:](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n\n> The Project Area is in Tiger Point. The work includes the construction of infrastructure to expand the treatment capacity of the existing wastewater treatment plant from 2.0 million gallons per day to 3.5 million gallons per day. The infrastructure includes constructing new oxidation ditches, water clarifiers, filters, and all other components necessary for a complete and operational wastewater treatment facility. It also includes the rehab and refurbishing of existing Bardenpho reactors to additional water reject storage tanks.\n\nBids were opened early 2024, and the bid was awarded April 2024. Construction began August 2024, and the estimated completion date for the project is January 2027. Construction is currently at 25% complete.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the total projected or actual cost of the project still be within the \\$64 million budget set in spring 2025?\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Project Information\n\n* **Official project page:**\n [1.5 MGD Expansion for Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n *Contains detailed scope, funding info, project contacts, timeline (last updated April 2025, with active construction and budget information).*\n* **City's explanation of the \\$14 monthly sewer capital fee:**\n [Sewer Capital Fee - City of Gulf Breeze](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/proposed-sewer-capital-fee/)\n *Explains how the \\$64 million project is funded, the city council’s May 2024 vote, and why the new fee structure was chosen. Useful for understanding budget, grants, and fees.*\n\n***\n\n## Recent News Stories\n\n* **News overview of funding and fee changes:**\n [Gulf Breeze will add \\$14 to customer bills to help fund wastewater expansion (WEAR-TV)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion)\n *Covers council approval, why the budget changed, and the project’s broader role in eliminating septic systems (May 2025).*\n* **News feature on project impact and costs:**\n [Gulf Breeze-area sewer costs are set to increase. Here's how much ... (Yahoo News)](https://www.yahoo.com/news/gulf-breeze-area-sewer-costs-090436348.html)\n *Breaks down the city’s search for \\$32 million, the role of grants, and cost drivers (April 2025).*\n\n***\n\n## Related Public Funding Documents\n\n* **Santa Rosa County RESTORE Act funding plan (Federal Grants):**\n [Santa Rosa County MYP Amendment 2 - Treasury Department (PDF)](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/216/SantaRosaCounty-MYP-Amendment2--2021.pdf)\n *Lists the Tiger Point WWTF expansion, federal and state funding streams, and some historic cost baselines (though the numbers are a little older).*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/)\n *Where official meeting documents, resolutions, and updates are posted. You can search here for the latest.*\n\nIf you have thoughts about project costs, funding, or priorities—feel free to share in the comments!" }, { "id": 38950, "title": "#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?", "short_title": "#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished", "url_title": "#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished", "slug": "3-will-the-tiger-point-wastewater-treatment-facility-expansion-be-finished", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:35.792180Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:04:36.857624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:49:57.577156Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-02T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-02T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38290, "title": "#3 - Will the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion be finished before February 2027?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:35.792606Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-02T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-02T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-02-02T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to help serve more homes and support future growth. The project will increase the facility's capacity from 2.0 to 3.5 million gallons per day—allowing more households to move off septic systems and connect to city sewer.\n\nConstruction began in August 2024, and as of mid-2025, the work was about 25% complete. The expansion is being funded by a mix of state and federal dollars, plus a new \\$14 monthly fee for utility customers.\n\nCity plans show the project is scheduled to be finished by January 2027. This forecast asks: will the construction be complete before February 1, 2027?\n\n**Resources**\n\nGulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program designed to reduce pollution and flooding, managed under the EPA’s Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) permit requirements ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n\nThe Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan outlines substantial investments in flood resilience and shoreline protection statewide, with programs that fund projects to harden coastal infrastructure against flooding and hurricanes ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n\nSanta Rosa County, including Gulf Breeze, was awarded over \\$8.5 million in state funding through the Local Government Water Supply Pilot Grant Program to improve water infrastructure and resilience in 2024-2025, highlighting the region’s capacity to secure sizable grants for environmental infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n\nThe state’s broader water quality and infrastructure programs also provide grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline resiliency projects, which Gulf Breeze is well positioned to pursue ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))", "resolution_criteria": "\n\nScroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze officially reports that the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility expansion is substantially complete before February 1, 2027. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**. Official city updates or public project documents will be used for confirmation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38950, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286266.74021, "end_time": 1758952294.397, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286266.74021, "end_time": 1758952294.397, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.660047249224576 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility to help serve more homes and support future growth. The project will increase the facility's capacity from 2.0 to 3.5 million gallons per day—allowing more households to move off septic systems and connect to city sewer.\n\nConstruction began in August 2024, and as of mid-2025, the work was about 25% complete. The expansion is being funded by a mix of state and federal dollars, plus a new \\$14 monthly fee for utility customers.\n\nCity plans show the project is scheduled to be finished by January 2027. This forecast asks: will the construction be complete before February 1, 2027?\n\n**Resources**\n\nGulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program designed to reduce pollution and flooding, managed under the EPA’s Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System (MS4) permit requirements ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n\nThe Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan outlines substantial investments in flood resilience and shoreline protection statewide, with programs that fund projects to harden coastal infrastructure against flooding and hurricanes ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n\nSanta Rosa County, including Gulf Breeze, was awarded over \\$8.5 million in state funding through the Local Government Water Supply Pilot Grant Program to improve water infrastructure and resilience in 2024-2025, highlighting the region’s capacity to secure sizable grants for environmental infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n\nThe state’s broader water quality and infrastructure programs also provide grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline resiliency projects, which Gulf Breeze is well positioned to pursue ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))" }, { "id": 38949, "title": "#2 - Will storm-hardening upgrades shorten power outages by at least 20% compared to 2023?", "short_title": "#2 - Storm-hardening upgrades shorten power outages by more than 20%", "url_title": "#2 - Storm-hardening upgrades shorten power outages by more than 20%", "slug": "2-storm-hardening-upgrades-shorten-power-outages-by-more-than-20", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:33.475845Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:07:06.919658Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:49:41.838880Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38289, "title": "#2 - Will storm-hardening upgrades shorten power outages by at least 20% compared to 2023?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:22:33.476337Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to strengthen its power system so that residents experience fewer and shorter outages after storms. The City has invested in projects like moving power lines underground and reinforcing utility poles and equipment—part of a broader \"storm-hardening\" strategy.\n\nThe goal is to reduce the amount of time residents are without power during severe weather. For context, during Hurricane Ivan in 2004, some parts of the city were without electricity for weeks. These upgrades aim to prevent outages like that in the future.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the average length of storm-related power outages be at least 20% shorter than in 2023?", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official reports from the City of Gulf Breeze or its utility providers confirm that the average duration of storm-related power outages in 2025 was at least 20% shorter than in 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38949, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286416.118529, "end_time": 1757781247.145, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286416.118529, "end_time": 1757781247.145, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.6024630474204633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is working to strengthen its power system so that residents experience fewer and shorter outages after storms. The City has invested in projects like moving power lines underground and reinforcing utility poles and equipment—part of a broader \"storm-hardening\" strategy.\n\nThe goal is to reduce the amount of time residents are without power during severe weather. For context, during Hurricane Ivan in 2004, some parts of the city were without electricity for weeks. These upgrades aim to prevent outages like that in the future.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the average length of storm-related power outages be at least 20% shorter than in 2023?" }, { "id": 38948, "title": "#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?", "short_title": "#1 - Construction starts on Phase II moving power lines underground", "url_title": "#1 - Construction starts on Phase II moving power lines underground", "slug": "1-construction-starts-on-phase-ii-moving-power-lines-underground", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T16:26:38.043559Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:58:55.625510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:49:10.101282Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38288, "title": "#1 - Will construction start in 2025 on Phase II of the project to move neighborhood power lines underground?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T16:26:38.044032Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To improve storm safety and make the Gulf Breeze power system more reliable, the city is moving power lines underground. Phase I focused on Highway 98 and wrapped up in August 2025. Now, Phase II will bring this work to neighborhood streets including Fairpoint Drive, Shoreline Drive, Sunset Boulevard, Daniel Drive, and Daniel Circle. City plans say construction is expected to begin in winter 2025 and finish by the end of 2026. \n\nThis forecast asks: will the actual work on Phase II get underway by December 31, 2025? \n\n## Utility Undergrounding Phase II — Key Resources\n\n* [Gulf Breeze set to finish phase one of \\$18M project to move utility lines underground (WEAR-TV, July 21, 2025)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-set-to-finish-phase-one-of-18m-project-to-move-utility-lines-underground)\n Confirms Phase I wrap-up and Phase II construction to begin within two weeks of above date, including neighborhood streets.\n* [Florida city set to finish first phase of \\$18 million underground power line project (Underground Infrastructure, July 24, 2025)](https://undergroundinfrastructure.com/news/2025/july/florida-city-set-to-finish-first-phase-of-18-million-underground-power-line-project)\n Industry news supporting Phase II schedule and project details.\n* [Gulf Breeze set to finish phase one of \\$18M project (YouTube, August 12, 2025)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub-VutKSJt8)\n Video report reiterating Phase II neighborhoods and start timing.\n* [Utility Undergrounding Conversion Project - City of Gulf Breeze (October 22, 2024)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/utility-undergrounding-conversion-project/)\n Official city project page with timeline including Phase II planned for winter 2025.\n* [City Projects - City of Gulf Breeze (February 20, 2025)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/utility-undergrounding-conversion-project/)\n General project listing confirming Phase II schedule and neighborhood coverage.\n* [Underground Utility Conversion - CRA - City of Gulf Breeze (ConstructConnect, March 17, 2025)](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023266-underground-utility-conversion-cra-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n Construction project documentation with related phases and milestones.", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if official documentation confirms that construction has started on Phase II of the neighborhood utility undergrounding project by 12:59 PM on December 31, 2025. Acceptable sources may include city project updates, council meeting minutes, or contractor notices. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38948, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757353546.865, "end_time": 1757781330.308, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757353546.865, "end_time": 1757781330.308, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6426696839637265 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To improve storm safety and make the Gulf Breeze power system more reliable, the city is moving power lines underground. Phase I focused on Highway 98 and wrapped up in August 2025. Now, Phase II will bring this work to neighborhood streets including Fairpoint Drive, Shoreline Drive, Sunset Boulevard, Daniel Drive, and Daniel Circle. City plans say construction is expected to begin in winter 2025 and finish by the end of 2026. \n\nThis forecast asks: will the actual work on Phase II get underway by December 31, 2025? \n\n## Utility Undergrounding Phase II — Key Resources\n\n* [Gulf Breeze set to finish phase one of \\$18M project to move utility lines underground (WEAR-TV, July 21, 2025)](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-set-to-finish-phase-one-of-18m-project-to-move-utility-lines-underground)\n Confirms Phase I wrap-up and Phase II construction to begin within two weeks of above date, including neighborhood streets.\n* [Florida city set to finish first phase of \\$18 million underground power line project (Underground Infrastructure, July 24, 2025)](https://undergroundinfrastructure.com/news/2025/july/florida-city-set-to-finish-first-phase-of-18-million-underground-power-line-project)\n Industry news supporting Phase II schedule and project details.\n* [Gulf Breeze set to finish phase one of \\$18M project (YouTube, August 12, 2025)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub-VutKSJt8)\n Video report reiterating Phase II neighborhoods and start timing.\n* [Utility Undergrounding Conversion Project - City of Gulf Breeze (October 22, 2024)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/utility-undergrounding-conversion-project/)\n Official city project page with timeline including Phase II planned for winter 2025.\n* [City Projects - City of Gulf Breeze (February 20, 2025)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/utility-undergrounding-conversion-project/)\n General project listing confirming Phase II schedule and neighborhood coverage.\n* [Underground Utility Conversion - CRA - City of Gulf Breeze (ConstructConnect, March 17, 2025)](https://projects.constructconnect.com/details/7023266-underground-utility-conversion-cra-city-of-gulf-breeze\\&find_loc=florida-32561)\n Construction project documentation with related phases and milestones." }, { "id": 38944, "title": "Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any of these 7 Taiwan KMT legislators lose their recall on Aug 23, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any of these 7 Taiwan KMT legislators lose their recall on Aug 23, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-of-these-7-taiwan-kmt-legislators-lose-their-recall-on-aug-23-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-27T14:45:33.883912Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T05:55:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.916350Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T05:56:14.687373Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T14:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T07:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38286, "title": "Will any opposition legislator in Taiwan lose their recall election on August 23, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-27T14:45:33.884351Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T07:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-29T07:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-29T07:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T14:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-26T14:31:08.463558Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Al Jazeera July 26, 2025: [Taiwan voters reject attempt to recall opposition lawmakers](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/26/polls-open-in-taiwans-key-recall-election-closely-watched-by-china)\n\n> Taiwanese voters have rejected an attempt to remove 24 opposition lawmakers, according to an official tally, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s party and its hopes for taking control of the parliament.\n\n> The DPP needed to unseat a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers to gain temporary control of parliament, with risk analysis firm Eurasia Group giving that outcome “a 60 percent probability”.\n\n> The heated recall election was closely watched by China, whose Taiwan Affairs Office and Chinese state media have repeatedly commented on and even used the KMT’s talking points to lambaste Lai.\n\nGeopolitically, the politics of Taiwan is best understood as Independence oriented Pan-Green coalition versus the [One China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_China_with_respective_interpretations) oriented Pan-Blue coalition. The President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te (William Lai) is currently part of the Pan-Green coalition and [has made](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp95mdjk95ko) statements such as saying he would \"uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.\" \n\nEven as Lai won re-election in 2024, his party [lost](https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/01/the-outcomes-of-taiwans-2024-legislative-elections/) the legislative election, with the Pan-Blue Kuomintang (KMT) and the populist Taiwan People's Party (TPP) controlling the legislator.\n\nOn July 26, 2025, 24 KMT lawmakers [faced](https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202507265002) a recall vote but [none](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38802/) were recalled. Successful recalls face difficult electoral rules as Taiwan requires not only that the majority vote in favour, but that more than 25% of eligible voters do so.\n\nSee also: [2025 Taiwanese recall votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_recall_votes)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any of the listed Taiwanese legislators lose their recall election [currently scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_recall_votes#23_August:_Legislators) for August 23, 2025:\n\n* Johnny Chiang (江啟臣)\n* Lin Szu‑ming (林思銘)\n* Lo Ming‑tsai (羅明才)\n* Ma Wen‑chun (馬文君)\n* Yen Kuan‑heng (顏寬恆)\n* Yang Chiung‑ying (楊瓊瓔)\n* Yu Hao (游顥)", "fine_print": "If any of the 7 recall elections are postponed until after December 31, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf a recall election is cancelled, that will be considered as that legislator not losing their recall election.", "post_id": 38944, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755825722.367573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755825722.367573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3238545466267428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2007788399476635, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.589234344316395, "peer_score": 102.15120846830102, "coverage": 0.9824280346401549, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9824280346401549, "spot_peer_score": 306.3501426552702, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 55.589234344316395, "peer_archived_score": 102.15120846830102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 306.3501426552702, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Al Jazeera July 26, 2025: [Taiwan voters reject attempt to recall opposition lawmakers](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/26/polls-open-in-taiwans-key-recall-election-closely-watched-by-china)\n\n> Taiwanese voters have rejected an attempt to remove 24 opposition lawmakers, according to an official tally, dealing a blow to President Lai Ching-te’s party and its hopes for taking control of the parliament.\n\n> The DPP needed to unseat a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers to gain temporary control of parliament, with risk analysis firm Eurasia Group giving that outcome “a 60 percent probability”.\n\n> The heated recall election was closely watched by China, whose Taiwan Affairs Office and Chinese state media have repeatedly commented on and even used the KMT’s talking points to lambaste Lai.\n\nGeopolitically, the politics of Taiwan is best understood as Independence oriented Pan-Green coalition versus the [One China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_China_with_respective_interpretations) oriented Pan-Blue coalition. The President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te (William Lai) is currently part of the Pan-Green coalition and [has made](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp95mdjk95ko) statements such as saying he would \"uphold the commitment to resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.\" \n\nEven as Lai won re-election in 2024, his party [lost](https://globaltaiwan.org/2024/01/the-outcomes-of-taiwans-2024-legislative-elections/) the legislative election, with the Pan-Blue Kuomintang (KMT) and the populist Taiwan People's Party (TPP) controlling the legislator.\n\nOn July 26, 2025, 24 KMT lawmakers [faced](https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202507265002) a recall vote but [none](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38802/) were recalled. Successful recalls face difficult electoral rules as Taiwan requires not only that the majority vote in favour, but that more than 25% of eligible voters do so.\n\nSee also: [2025 Taiwanese recall votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_recall_votes)" }, { "id": 38943, "title": "Will FEWS NET declare a famine in any part of Gaza before 2026?", "short_title": "Will FEWS NET declare a famine in any part of Gaza before 2026?", "url_title": "Will FEWS NET declare a famine in any part of Gaza before 2026?", "slug": "will-fews-net-declare-a-famine-in-any-part-of-gaza-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-26T02:30:40.846512Z", "published_at": "2025-07-26T15:12:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.301468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-26T15:12:51.858350Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-29T19:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-29T19:08:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38283, "title": "Will FEWS NET declare a famine in any part of Gaza before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-26T02:30:40.846920Z", "open_time": "2025-07-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-27T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-29T19:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-29T19:14:45.910432Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-29T19:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Washington Post July 24, 2025: [Mass starvation stalks Gaza as deaths from hunger rise](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/24/gaza-starvation-israel-restrictions/)\n\n> After four months of a near-total Israeli siege, Gaza’s few remaining hospitals now have wards for the growing number of malnourished children whose tiny bodies are just the width of their bones.\n\n> Doctors are famished to the point that they have dizzy spells as they make their rounds, medics say, and the journalists documenting their caseloads are often too weak to even walk to the clinics.\n\n> For months, aid agencies had warned of the coming crisis, as Israel halted the flow of aid to the Gaza Strip before attempting to replace U.N. relief efforts with distribution points inside military zones. It was a move Israeli officials said was aimed at pressuring Hamas, whose fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and continue to hold about 50 hostages who were abducted that day, about 20 of whom are still believed to be alive.\n\nFEWS NET, [established by](https://fews.net/about) the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 1985, serves as an early warning system for food insecurity and worldwide famines. At the time of this question, the Gaza Strip as a whole, as well as its five geographic territories are listed at the resolution source as being in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Broken down by population, the plurality, 925,000, are currently classified as Phase 4, while 244,000 are classified as Phase 5. FEWS NET projects that in its next update through September 2025, over 1 million people will be classified as Phase 4, while 470,000 will be classified as Phase 5, which it describes as \"a significant deterioration.\" \n\nOn July 25, 2025, the heads of state of the UK, France and German [put out a joint statement](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-uk-france-say-gaza-humanitarian-crisis-must-end/live-73407430) urging Israel to allow in humanitarian aid, as a United Nations official [described](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le7I4kC4Lbc) Palestinians as \"walking corpses.\" For its part, the Israeli government [has blamed](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/25/israel-gives-tour-of-un-aid-left-rotting-in-gaza/) the UN for failing to deliver food, with a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu telling a TV interviewer, \"The UN is working in cooperation with Hamas to restrict the amount of aid to its own people.\"\n\nSee also NPR: [What does it take for a famine to be declared in Gaza?](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/07/25/g-s1-78968/what-does-it-take-for-a-famine-to-be-declared-in-gaza)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) declares that Gaza, or any geographic area in Gaza is currently under famine ([IPC Phase 5](https://fews.net/about/integrated-phase-classification)) conditions. The resolution source is FEWS NET's [Gaza country page](https://fews.net/middle-east-and-asia/gaza) or, in the event of issues at that page, other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38943, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753755414.468117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753755414.468117, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6484064895772393 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 1.2697738486604029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Washington Post July 24, 2025: [Mass starvation stalks Gaza as deaths from hunger rise](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/07/24/gaza-starvation-israel-restrictions/)\n\n> After four months of a near-total Israeli siege, Gaza’s few remaining hospitals now have wards for the growing number of malnourished children whose tiny bodies are just the width of their bones.\n\n> Doctors are famished to the point that they have dizzy spells as they make their rounds, medics say, and the journalists documenting their caseloads are often too weak to even walk to the clinics.\n\n> For months, aid agencies had warned of the coming crisis, as Israel halted the flow of aid to the Gaza Strip before attempting to replace U.N. relief efforts with distribution points inside military zones. It was a move Israeli officials said was aimed at pressuring Hamas, whose fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and continue to hold about 50 hostages who were abducted that day, about 20 of whom are still believed to be alive.\n\nFEWS NET, [established by](https://fews.net/about) the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in 1985, serves as an early warning system for food insecurity and worldwide famines. At the time of this question, the Gaza Strip as a whole, as well as its five geographic territories are listed at the resolution source as being in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Broken down by population, the plurality, 925,000, are currently classified as Phase 4, while 244,000 are classified as Phase 5. FEWS NET projects that in its next update through September 2025, over 1 million people will be classified as Phase 4, while 470,000 will be classified as Phase 5, which it describes as \"a significant deterioration.\" \n\nOn July 25, 2025, the heads of state of the UK, France and German [put out a joint statement](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-uk-france-say-gaza-humanitarian-crisis-must-end/live-73407430) urging Israel to allow in humanitarian aid, as a United Nations official [described](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le7I4kC4Lbc) Palestinians as \"walking corpses.\" For its part, the Israeli government [has blamed](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/25/israel-gives-tour-of-un-aid-left-rotting-in-gaza/) the UN for failing to deliver food, with a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu telling a TV interviewer, \"The UN is working in cooperation with Hamas to restrict the amount of aid to its own people.\"\n\nSee also NPR: [What does it take for a famine to be declared in Gaza?](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/07/25/g-s1-78968/what-does-it-take-for-a-famine-to-be-declared-in-gaza)" }, { "id": 38940, "title": "Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?", "short_title": "Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?", "url_title": "Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?", "slug": "will-over-23-of-the-eu-recognize-palestine-before-july-2026", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-25T23:16:03.559174Z", "published_at": "2025-07-31T22:00:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T10:31:37.970216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-31T22:00:55.499990Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38280, "title": "Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T23:16:03.559658Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n\nSee also:\n\n* An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n* The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n\nA country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n\nFor purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n\n1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n\nEU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n\n1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n\n\\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))", "post_id": 38940, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757500287.211804, "end_time": 1757756382.447, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757500287.211804, "end_time": 1757756382.447, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.456631855531422 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.9147633448549574, 1.2989031955007186, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3489077159008476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.4240754605254244, 0.0, 0.23815523496648797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6527945939109298, 0.09630553750946041, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n\nSee also:\n\n* An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n* The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"" }, { "id": 38939, "title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "slug": "will-australia-recognize-palestine-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2025-07-25T20:35:42.119604Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T23:53:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T07:25:54.151582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-25T23:54:17.094932Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-26T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38279, "title": "Will Australia recognize Palestine before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T20:35:42.119967Z", "open_time": "2025-07-26T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-27T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Australian government has [historically supported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93Palestine_relations) a two-state solution but has stopped short of formal recognition. In 2025, a growing number of Australian lawmakers, particularly within the Labor Party, have recently urged the federal government to officially recognize a Palestinian state. According to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/25/australia-news-live-marles-wong-aukus-trade-beef-submarines-productivity-summit-albanese-chalmers-ley-ntwnfb):\n\n> Former minister and Labor backbencher, **Ed Husic**, has said France’s announcement to recognise Palestinian statehood was the “perfect opportunity” for Australia to follow suit.\n> \n> He told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing: \"This is a fairly comprehensive statement that France has put out, and I think it is one that Australia has the perfect opportunity now to stand with the French to recognise the state of Palestine.\"\n> \n> He said the Labor party at its two most recent national conferences had reaffirmed recognising the state of Palestine, and the “brutality over the last 20 months” had led many nations to rethink their approach to this issue.\n\nThis comes amid a broader international movement supporting Palestinian statehood, including formal recognition by countries such as [Spain, Ireland, and Norway](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/28/ireland-norway-and-spain-recognised-palestine-what-has-that-changed) in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Australian federal government officially announces that it is formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757298700.325, "end_time": 1757631375.395, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757298700.325, "end_time": 1757631375.395, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7693926538765691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5968963232163145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47737054121135125, 0.4255734980278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8212308980069889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3071198352210196, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 1.041425315964801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6974116445682013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Australian government has [historically supported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93Palestine_relations) a two-state solution but has stopped short of formal recognition. In 2025, a growing number of Australian lawmakers, particularly within the Labor Party, have recently urged the federal government to officially recognize a Palestinian state. According to [the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jul/25/australia-news-live-marles-wong-aukus-trade-beef-submarines-productivity-summit-albanese-chalmers-ley-ntwnfb):\n\n> Former minister and Labor backbencher, **Ed Husic**, has said France’s announcement to recognise Palestinian statehood was the “perfect opportunity” for Australia to follow suit.\n> \n> He told ABC’s Afternoon Briefing: \"This is a fairly comprehensive statement that France has put out, and I think it is one that Australia has the perfect opportunity now to stand with the French to recognise the state of Palestine.\"\n> \n> He said the Labor party at its two most recent national conferences had reaffirmed recognising the state of Palestine, and the “brutality over the last 20 months” had led many nations to rethink their approach to this issue.\n\nThis comes amid a broader international movement supporting Palestinian statehood, including formal recognition by countries such as [Spain, Ireland, and Norway](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/28/ireland-norway-and-spain-recognised-palestine-what-has-that-changed) in 2024." }, { "id": 38938, "title": "Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will conflict b/t Thailand & Cambodia result in 500 deaths thru Dec 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will conflict b/t Thailand & Cambodia result in 500 deaths thru Dec 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-conflict-bt-thailand-cambodia-result-in-500-deaths-thru-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-25T20:22:16.226064Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T23:20:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T01:25:59.963078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-26T00:27:14.682817Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38278, "title": "Will conflict between Thailand and Cambodia result in 500 deaths from March 28 to December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T20:22:16.226548Z", "open_time": "2025-07-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-26T23:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-26T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Thai-Cambodian border dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Background) is an ongoing conflict centred around the 11th‑century Khmer temples of [Preah Vihear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preah_Vihear_Temple) and [Ta Muen Thom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prasat_Ta_Muen_Thom). Cambodia has relied on the [1907 French‑produced map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Siamese_treaty_of_1907), while Thailand argues it was never formally accepted, leaving roughly 4.6 km² of overlapping claims. The International Court of Justice [awarded sovereignty](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/45) over Preah Vihear to Cambodia in 1962 and clarified in 2013 that the surrounding promontory also falls under Cambodian control, yet adjacent tracts remain contested. [Border skirmishes in 2008–11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) killed fourty individuals and displaced thousands.\n\nTensions flared again on [28 May 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodia%E2%80%93Thailand_border_conflict) when troops exchanged fire near Preah Vihear, escalating over two months into the deadliest clash between the countries in over a decade, with artillery duels, Thai F‑16 strikes, more than 20 fatalities, the evacuation of more than 130,000 Thai civilians, closure of all crossing points, and an emergency UN Security Council session. On the July 25, Thailand [rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-favours-direct-talks-end-cambodia-conflict-rather-than-mediation-2025-07-25/) mediation offers from The United States, China, and Malaysia, saying that they would like to resolve the dispute bilaterally. In response, Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet [revealed](https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501725013/hun-manet-reaffirms-cambodias-support-for-ceasefire-amid-thai-retraction/) that Cambodia and Thailand had initially agreed on a ceasefire proposed by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, but Thailand retracted from it an hour before it came into effect.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia results in at least 500 deaths after May 27, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIndependent estimates of the number of deaths will be prioritised in resolving this question. These may include cases where an independent organisation has reviewed and explicitly endorsed one side's death figures. If no such estimates are available or if they are judged by Metaculus to be in error, this question will resolve according to each side's count of their own dead.", "fine_print": "* The deaths have to occur in Thai and/or Cambodian territory, as demarcated by their internationally recognised state borders. Deaths in disputed territories between the two countries will be included.\n* The deaths have to be caused by the overtly flagged military forces of Thailand, Cambodia, and/or their explicit allies in the conflict.\n* The conflict need not involve Thailand forces within the borders of Cambodia or vice-versa, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* The deaths must be caused by [kinetic attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* In case of conflicting information between sources, Metaculus might wait until the end of the tournament to resolve this question or might make a determination as to which sources should contribute to its resolution.", "post_id": 38938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757208349.687342, "end_time": 1757696749.35, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757208349.687342, "end_time": 1757696749.35, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02873425675567099 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.754561409801607, 0.1264389227324011, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128789349383285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Thai-Cambodian border dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis#Background) is an ongoing conflict centred around the 11th‑century Khmer temples of [Preah Vihear](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preah_Vihear_Temple) and [Ta Muen Thom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prasat_Ta_Muen_Thom). Cambodia has relied on the [1907 French‑produced map](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Siamese_treaty_of_1907), while Thailand argues it was never formally accepted, leaving roughly 4.6 km² of overlapping claims. The International Court of Justice [awarded sovereignty](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/45) over Preah Vihear to Cambodia in 1962 and clarified in 2013 that the surrounding promontory also falls under Cambodian control, yet adjacent tracts remain contested. [Border skirmishes in 2008–11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932013_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) killed fourty individuals and displaced thousands.\n\nTensions flared again on [28 May 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodia%E2%80%93Thailand_border_conflict) when troops exchanged fire near Preah Vihear, escalating over two months into the deadliest clash between the countries in over a decade, with artillery duels, Thai F‑16 strikes, more than 20 fatalities, the evacuation of more than 130,000 Thai civilians, closure of all crossing points, and an emergency UN Security Council session. On the July 25, Thailand [rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailand-favours-direct-talks-end-cambodia-conflict-rather-than-mediation-2025-07-25/) mediation offers from The United States, China, and Malaysia, saying that they would like to resolve the dispute bilaterally. In response, Cambodian prime minister Hun Manet [revealed](https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501725013/hun-manet-reaffirms-cambodias-support-for-ceasefire-amid-thai-retraction/) that Cambodia and Thailand had initially agreed on a ceasefire proposed by Malaysian prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, but Thailand retracted from it an hour before it came into effect." }, { "id": 38936, "title": "Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a ceasefire before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a ceasefire before September 2025?", "slug": "will-thailand-and-cambodia-announce-a-ceasefire-before-september-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-25T15:55:30.842002Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T17:07:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.882382Z", "curation_status": 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"type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.984235Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38276, "title": "Will Thailand and Cambodia announce a bilateral ceasefire, with an intended duration of at least 28 days, before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T15:55:30.842452Z", "open_time": "2025-07-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-27T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-29T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-29T11:01:47.052466Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-29T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A series of border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand [began](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-border-clash-talk-7ac8b8c2b53d19617aeea00552549ea6) on May 28, 2025, with Thai soldiers opening fire on a Cambodian patrol, with a 10-minute firefight before both sides withdrew from the disputed area. \n\nTwo months later, clashes began again. According to the New York Times: \n\n> Cambodia and Thailand exchanged fire for a second day on Friday after months of rising tension over the shared border between the two Southeast Asian countries. At least 15 people have been killed on the Thai side since the fighting started, and in Cambodia, at least one death has been reported. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled the disputed area.  \n\n> The border tensions have already contributed to a political crisis in Thailand: On July 1 a Thai court suspended the prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, because of comments she made about the dispute, which goes back decades.\n\nAt the time of the writing of this question, Cambodia [has backed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/25/death-toll-in-thai-cambodia-clashes-rises-to-16-as-120000-flee-border-area) a ceasefire proposal from Malaysia, which Thailand initially agreed to but then quickly withdrew its backing.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, a bilateral ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand is announced or acknowledged by both countries according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). The ceasefire must have an intended duration of greater than or equal to 28 days, which includes ceasefires with an indefinite duration.\n\nThe question resolves 24 hours after both sides have announced or acknowledged the ceasefire, in order to ensure that neither side retracts or disavows the ceasefire.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, whether the ceasefire holds is immaterial for resolution.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Cambodian and Thai territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 38936, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753781428.075022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753781428.075022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9617935765372836 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009712334743922024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01571433574876876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016279767023399463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025360596869753158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 1.050389031806108, 0.029058259890870124, 0.0, 0.22258622707545178, 0.44961249434629236, 2.3270447060088664, 0.6363545272906954, 1.1646532216198688, 0.32768716652500174, 6.032973238300509 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.811323754235268, "peer_score": 0.961276032981237, "coverage": 0.07632865180145738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946210473205288, "spot_peer_score": -11.70631014607262, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 3.811323754235268, "peer_archived_score": 0.961276032981237, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.70631014607262, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A series of border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand [began](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-border-clash-talk-7ac8b8c2b53d19617aeea00552549ea6) on May 28, 2025, with Thai soldiers opening fire on a Cambodian patrol, with a 10-minute firefight before both sides withdrew from the disputed area. \n\nTwo months later, clashes began again. According to the New York Times: \n\n> Cambodia and Thailand exchanged fire for a second day on Friday after months of rising tension over the shared border between the two Southeast Asian countries. At least 15 people have been killed on the Thai side since the fighting started, and in Cambodia, at least one death has been reported. Tens of thousands of civilians have fled the disputed area.  \n\n> The border tensions have already contributed to a political crisis in Thailand: On July 1 a Thai court suspended the prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, because of comments she made about the dispute, which goes back decades.\n\nAt the time of the writing of this question, Cambodia [has backed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/7/25/death-toll-in-thai-cambodia-clashes-rises-to-16-as-120000-flee-border-area) a ceasefire proposal from Malaysia, which Thailand initially agreed to but then quickly withdrew its backing." }, { "id": 38935, "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?", "short_title": "Bolsonaro imprisoned before September 2025?", "url_title": "Bolsonaro imprisoned before September 2025?", "slug": "bolsonaro-imprisoned-before-september-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-25T15:24:50.730223Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T17:28:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.973746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-25T17:28:43.334474Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38275, "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be imprisoned before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T15:24:50.730693Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T16:11:04.672473Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President Jair Bolsonaro is [on trial](https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-things-to-know-e42439f640a51d22619fb6c087f8e3d5) in Brazil in connection with allegations that he attempted to stage a coup to remain in power after [narrowly losing re-election in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Brazilian_general_election). On July 18, 2025, after U.S. President Donald Trump called for the charges against Bolsonaro to be dropped, federal police [searched](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/18/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-intl) Bolsonaro's home and office, and the Supreme Court [ordered](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/world/americas/brazil-president-bolsonaro-ankle-monitor.html) that he wear an ankle monitor, not speak with foreign officials, not use social media, and not communicate with his son Eduardo.\n\nOn July 21, Bolsonaro spoke with journalists, showing them his ankle monitor and calling it \"a symbol of the utmost humiliation.\" After footage of this interaction was shared on social media by Eduardo Bolsonaro, Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Court [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce83lle56mno) Jair Bolsonaro with imprisonment for violating the court's order.\n\nOn July 24, the court [declined](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-top-court-rules-out-bolsonaro-arrest-now-2025-07-24/) to order Bolsonaro into custody, describing the incident as \"isolated\" but reiterating that any further violations of the court's order would result in his imprisonment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Jair Bolsonaro is imprisoned, for any reason, before September 1, 2025, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "Jair Bolsonaro will be considered to be imprisoned if he is taken into police or other governmental custody and confined for a period of at least 24 hours. It is immaterial whether such confinement is described as imprisonment, jailing, detention, incarceration, or other similar terminology.\n\nHouse arrest or electronic monitoring will not count as imprisonment.", "post_id": 38935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756614681.736696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756614681.736696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02355951207089606 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.476886095618953, 5.348169103458858, 3.291548039481819, 0.8088476483770175, 0.6715964359112688, 0.03027775264910134, 0.08625829385506563, 0.04661068460318263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059171252834452695, 0.0, 0.02787557230531061, 0.0042606242280195635, 0.0, 0.006561483616705533, 0.0, 0.0031043082091917864, 0.0120896308598963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036966661526580076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13735088318617605 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.85169818997166, "peer_score": 19.33136705628902, "coverage": 0.9999135919796653, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999135919796653, "spot_peer_score": 20.77196806682768, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 77.85169818997166, "peer_archived_score": 19.33136705628902, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.77196806682768, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 640, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President Jair Bolsonaro is [on trial](https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-trial-things-to-know-e42439f640a51d22619fb6c087f8e3d5) in Brazil in connection with allegations that he attempted to stage a coup to remain in power after [narrowly losing re-election in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Brazilian_general_election). On July 18, 2025, after U.S. President Donald Trump called for the charges against Bolsonaro to be dropped, federal police [searched](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/18/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-intl) Bolsonaro's home and office, and the Supreme Court [ordered](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/18/world/americas/brazil-president-bolsonaro-ankle-monitor.html) that he wear an ankle monitor, not speak with foreign officials, not use social media, and not communicate with his son Eduardo.\n\nOn July 21, Bolsonaro spoke with journalists, showing them his ankle monitor and calling it \"a symbol of the utmost humiliation.\" After footage of this interaction was shared on social media by Eduardo Bolsonaro, Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Court [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce83lle56mno) Jair Bolsonaro with imprisonment for violating the court's order.\n\nOn July 24, the court [declined](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-top-court-rules-out-bolsonaro-arrest-now-2025-07-24/) to order Bolsonaro into custody, describing the incident as \"isolated\" but reiterating that any further violations of the court's order would result in his imprisonment." } ] }
