Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=280
{ "count": 6254, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=260", "results": [ { "id": 39676, "title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "short_title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "url_title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "slug": "is-alexander-zverev-the-2025-us-open-mens-singles-champion", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.001485Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.285746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.349842Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-03T22:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39053, "title": "Is Alexander Zverev the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:48.001873Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T04:46:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-03T22:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-03T22:58:41.226193Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T06:16:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bb6e0523-0806-4151-b527-fcedec172a47\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination hinges on whether Alexander Zverev secures the title in the Men’s Singles competition at the 2025 US Open. A positive outcome is recorded only if he is officially recognized as the winner of this specific event. Should he be eliminated, withdraw, or otherwise become ineligible to claim the championship under the tournament’s official regulations at any stage, the answer will be negative. The primary reference for verifying the result will be the official US Open website (https://www.usopen.org) with supplementary confirmation from reputable news outlets if necessary. All criteria are assessed as of the conclusion of the tournament, with the final decision based on the status at or before 2025-09-07T00:00:00+00:00.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39676, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756878875.791766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756878875.791766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04774074074074063 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.0, 53.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bb6e0523-0806-4151-b527-fcedec172a47\"}}`" }, { "id": 39675, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will France call another election by 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will France call another election by 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-france-call-another-election-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.028613Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:08.594852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.503803Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39052, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:47.029015Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:49:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:49:42Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:08.279818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T12:19:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114\n- Original question title: Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n> \n> The actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n> \n> Following the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n> \n> See also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 20:49:42 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39675, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756901759.431629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756901759.431629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5179876543209875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -4.355165150148257, "peer_score": 2.9403458620192717, "coverage": 0.9579895025712472, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08982306079106676, "weighted_coverage": 0.9579895025712472, "spot_peer_score": 4.795987650756765, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -4.355165150148257, "peer_archived_score": 2.9403458620192717, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08982306079106676, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.795987650756765, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26114\n- Original question title: Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n> \n> The actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n> \n> Following the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n> \n> See also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26114,\"question_id\":26114,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`" }, { "id": 39674, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 21.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-jd-vance-potus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.283122Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:09.126680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.614760Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39051, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 21.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:46.283535Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:14:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T07:38:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:08.807110Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:44:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336\n- Original question title: Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 21.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n> \n> Serving as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n> \n> If the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n> \n> If elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n> \n> Prior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26336,\"question_id\":26336,\"last_cp\":0.21}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 07:38:53 is higher than 21.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39674, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756897957.38901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756897957.38901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3943189300411523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -49.4809052600271, "peer_score": -0.20412766844441066, "coverage": 0.9908589981661902, "relative_legacy_score": -0.2327188346341859, "weighted_coverage": 0.9908589981661902, "spot_peer_score": -3.5642123336902474, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -49.4809052600271, "peer_archived_score": -0.20412766844441066, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.2327188346341859, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.5642123336902474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26336\n- Original question title: Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 21.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n> \n> Serving as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n> \n> If the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n> \n> If elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n> \n> Prior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26336,\"question_id\":26336,\"last_cp\":0.21}}`" }, { "id": 39673, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-boeings-stock-price-exceed-210-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.130517Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:09.814518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.893400Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39050, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:45.130912Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T02:21:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T17:55:04Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:09.500066Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T03:51:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022\n- Original question title: Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if Boeing's (ticker: BA) stock price closes above \\$210.00 on December 31, 2025, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/) or alternative credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Boeing undergoes any stock splits, reverse splits, or such actions affecting its stock price before December 31, 2025, the stock price at resolution will be adjusted to its corresponding pre-split value.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36022,\"question_id\":35453,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 17:55:04 is higher than 75.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39673, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756869988.746232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756869988.746232, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.45076543209876563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.26221086932621, "peer_score": 9.670277416261802, "coverage": 0.9291866405363436, "relative_legacy_score": 0.06526361128083037, "weighted_coverage": 0.9291866405363436, "spot_peer_score": 10.55441497718368, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "baseline_archived_score": 22.26221086932621, "peer_archived_score": 9.670277416261802, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.06526361128083037, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.55441497718368, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36022\n- Original question title: Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if Boeing's (ticker: BA) stock price closes above \\$210.00 on December 31, 2025, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/) or alternative credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Boeing undergoes any stock splits, reverse splits, or such actions affecting its stock price before December 31, 2025, the stock price at resolution will be adjusted to its corresponding pre-split value.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36022,\"question_id\":35453,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`" }, { "id": 39672, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.90% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-derrick-rose-hall-of-fame-by-2040", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:44.062130Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T19:01:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:10.327476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:44.561482Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:33:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:33:32Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T19:01:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39049, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.90% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:44.062573Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T19:01:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:33:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T20:33:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:10.012691Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T20:31:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397\n- Original question title: Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 28.90%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the Naismith Hall of Fame ceases to exist for any reason, this question will be annulled\n\nOriginal background: \n> [As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19397,\"question_id\":19397,\"last_cp\":0.289}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 20:33:32 is higher than 28.90%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39672, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757103796.384516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757103796.384516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35275113378684797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 13.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -49.09328424235215, "peer_score": 13.395394210668744, "coverage": 0.9761159637239244, "relative_legacy_score": -0.1207263854131481, "weighted_coverage": 0.9761159637239244, "spot_peer_score": 8.680300120661682, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -49.09328424235215, "peer_archived_score": 13.395394210668744, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.1207263854131481, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.680300120661682, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19397\n- Original question title: Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 28.90%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the Naismith Hall of Fame ceases to exist for any reason, this question will be annulled\n\nOriginal background: \n> [As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19397,\"question_id\":19397,\"last_cp\":0.289}}`" }, { "id": 39671, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-openai-deepmind-or-anthropic-have-revenue-of-at-least-100b-in-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:43.047970Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T18:35:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:10.826982Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:43.540701Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:14:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:14:38Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T18:35:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39048, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:43.048359Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T18:35:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:14:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:14:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:10.524430Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T20:05:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38405\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of OpenAI, DeepMind or Anthropic have an annualised revenue of at least \\$100 billion in 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepMind as of June 2025), Metaculus will use the best available information and estimates at the time to determine if the \\$100 billion revenue criterion has been met and might delay resolution until July 2028.\n> \n> For public companies, in the event any of the listed companies go public, official financial reporting will be used to resolve the question (e.g., UK Companies House or relevant reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)).\n> \n> Should all three companies cease to exist this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n> \n> Section 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n> \n> > We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n> \n> | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n> | ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n> | Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n> | Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n> | Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n> | Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n> \n> ***\n> \n> AI 2027 notes some key factors:\n> \n> * *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n> * *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n> * *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> FutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38405,\"question_id\":37679,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38405. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 01:14:38 is higher than 45.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39671, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757015430.823051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757015430.823051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5275000000000001, 0.4725 ], "means": [ 0.44774319727891165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.346686934035023, "peer_score": 12.624920465271508, "coverage": 0.9510357533119342, "relative_legacy_score": 0.165442129504996, "weighted_coverage": 0.9510357533119342, "spot_peer_score": 14.24430024211406, "spot_baseline_score": -8.161376555365212, "baseline_archived_score": -7.346686934035023, "peer_archived_score": 12.624920465271508, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.165442129504996, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.24430024211406, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.161376555365212 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38405\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of OpenAI, DeepMind or Anthropic have an annualised revenue of at least \\$100 billion in 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepMind as of June 2025), Metaculus will use the best available information and estimates at the time to determine if the \\$100 billion revenue criterion has been met and might delay resolution until July 2028.\n> \n> For public companies, in the event any of the listed companies go public, official financial reporting will be used to resolve the question (e.g., UK Companies House or relevant reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)).\n> \n> Should all three companies cease to exist this question will be **annulled**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In [AI 2027's](https://ai-2027.com) [*C*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[*ompute Forecast*](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics)[,](https://ai-2027.com/research/compute-forecast#section-5-industry-metrics) annual revenue of OpenBrain - a fictionalised company whom AI 2027 expects to be the leading world's leading AI company in terms of computing power and model performance - is forecasted to be \\$140 billion. The leading AI companies today are considered to be [OpenAI](https://openai.com), Google's [DeepMind](https://deepmind.google) and [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com).\n> \n> Section 5 of the *Compute Forecast* provides AI 2027's methodology for this \\$140 billion figure which ultimately leans heavily on OpenAI's financials and subscriber model growth:\n> \n> > We use OpenAI’s [2023 revenue of \\$1B](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-cfo-revenue-forecast-chatgpt-2025-2) and [2024 revenue around \\$4B](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html) to to piece together a short term trend that we expect to slow down gradually, but see sustained exponential growth through 2027 due to agentic models attracting high paying subscribers for products such as ‘drop in remote workers.’\n> \n> | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |\n> | ------------------------------------------ | -----: | ---: | ----: | ----: | -----: |\n> | Annual Revenue, billion \\$USD | \\$1B | \\$4B | \\$14B | \\$45B | \\$140B |\n> | Revenue Year-on Year Growth, % | - | 300% | 250% | 221% | 211% |\n> | Annual Compute Cost, billion \\$USD | \\$1.8B | \\$6B | \\$16B | \\$40B | \\$100B |\n> | Annual Compute Cost Year-on-Year Growth, % | - | 233% | 166% | 150% | 50% |\n> \n> ***\n> \n> AI 2027 notes some key factors:\n> \n> * *Compute Cost.* How much a capital a company assigns to computational spending (i.e., model training costs).\n> * *Computation Price Performance.* How much computational power you receive with respect to cost - measured in Floating-point Operations Per Second (FLOP) per dollar cost (FLOP/\\$)\n> * *AI Agents.* Subscribers of models are the principal source of revenue for AI companies. Both AI 2027 and FutureSearch forecast that AI Agent \"replacement workers\" may be a substantial source of revenue for leading AI companies.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> FutureSearch. *OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027.* April 3, 2025. Accessed at: [https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue](https://futuresearch.ai/openbrain-revenue)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38405,\"question_id\":37679,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`" }, { "id": 39670, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-before-2029-will-a-new-ai-safety-org-form-with-3-g7-members", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.289922Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:11.348052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.624580Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39047, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 52.00% on 2025-09-11 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:42.290345Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T16:15:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T01:20:56Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:11.040700Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T17:45:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163\n- Original question title: Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new international organization, with participation from at least 3 G7 countries, is formally launched that has a primary focus on safety or alignment of advanced AI systems according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \"Participation\" can mean listed as a formal participant by the organization, being a signatory, or being a contributor.\n> \n> The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.\n> \n> In order to count, the organization must be a new entity, not a sub-unit of an existing body such as the UN, OECD, or GPAI. \n> \n> The organization must have a dedicated secretariat staff or administrative team and an initial funding commitment of at least \\$100 million USD (over any time period), publicly pledged by governments and/or officially participating entities.\n> \n> AI safety must me an explicit and central goal of the organization. \n> \n> The organization must have be an indefinite going concern, not a one-off task force or single event.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n> \n> > *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> While several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n> \n> This question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n> \n> For more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39163,\"question_id\":38505,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163. If the community prediction on 2025-09-11 01:20:56 is higher than 52.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39670, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756919496.890084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756919496.890084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4295 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.485 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5705, 0.4295 ], "means": [ 0.42148511904761915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.174525372334337, "peer_score": 0.35830425940169097, "coverage": 0.9748508935062972, "relative_legacy_score": 0.024470985659543688, "weighted_coverage": 0.9748508935062972, "spot_peer_score": 0.8399326035582216, "spot_baseline_score": 19.029879162659466, "baseline_archived_score": 18.174525372334337, "peer_archived_score": 0.35830425940169097, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.024470985659543688, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8399326035582216, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 19.029879162659466 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39163\n- Original question title: Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 52.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new international organization, with participation from at least 3 G7 countries, is formally launched that has a primary focus on safety or alignment of advanced AI systems according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \"Participation\" can mean listed as a formal participant by the organization, being a signatory, or being a contributor.\n> \n> The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.\n> \n> In order to count, the organization must be a new entity, not a sub-unit of an existing body such as the UN, OECD, or GPAI. \n> \n> The organization must have a dedicated secretariat staff or administrative team and an initial funding commitment of at least \\$100 million USD (over any time period), publicly pledged by governments and/or officially participating entities.\n> \n> AI safety must me an explicit and central goal of the organization. \n> \n> The organization must have be an indefinite going concern, not a one-off task force or single event.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n> \n> > *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> While several international summits and declarations on AI governance have taken place in recent years, many experts have called for a standing international institution focused on AI safety, sometimes referred to as a “CERN for AI.” \n> \n> This question tests whether new global institutions focused on AI safety will emerge with meaningful support. In the Tool AI scenario, formal governance bodies become essential to coordinating AI development, especially across high-stakes domains. A new international organization with substantial backing from multiple G7 countries would mark a concrete step toward the scenario’s institutional vision.\n> \n> For more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39163,\"question_id\":38505,\"last_cp\":0.52}}`" }, { "id": 39669, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-test-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:41.574948Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T17:40:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:11.856851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:41.902578Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T18:38:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T18:38:29Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T17:40:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39046, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:41.575417Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T17:40:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T18:38:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T18:38:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:11.551335Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:10:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006\n- Original question title: Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n> \n> At the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n> \n> According to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n> \n> > Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n> \n> This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39006,\"question_id\":38348,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 18:38:29 is higher than 6.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39669, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757012603.066097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757012603.066097, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35645524691358027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -44.42710329733762, "peer_score": 23.379193743504903, "coverage": 0.9525089361049514, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02771084123808241, "weighted_coverage": 0.9525089361049514, "spot_peer_score": 13.61312611898995, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -44.42710329733762, "peer_archived_score": 23.379193743504903, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02771084123808241, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.61312611898995, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006\n- Original question title: Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n> \n> At the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n> \n> According to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n> \n> > Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n> \n> This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39006,\"question_id\":38348,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 39668, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Chinese Model Chinese Chips\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Chinese Model Chinese Chips\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-chinese-model-chinese-chips", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:40.793836Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T20:17:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:12.376862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:41.138352Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:32:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:32:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T20:17:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39045, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:40.794263Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T20:17:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:32:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T02:32:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:12.065805Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20466\n- Original question title: If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms.\n> \n> If there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> On the question of, “How will we know that the chips were designed and fabricated by Chinese firms?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n> \n> - One example of the type of article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n> \n> - The admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n> \n> - If it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because given the amount of compute estimated to have been used in the training, and given the number of chips reported to be possessed by the Chinese lab (and therefore the compute they possess that comes from Chinese chips), it's unclear whether or not the 50% threshold is reached, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n> \n> - The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n> \n> - If there's a top Chinese model before 2027 for which there is good reason to suspect that a substantial fraction of the chips used in the training run were Chinese-designed and fabricated, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n> \n> ------\n> \n> A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n> \n> If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20466,\"question_id\":20466,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20466. If the community prediction on 2025-09-12 02:32:50 is higher than 85.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39668, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757108468.665317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757108468.665317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4516488095238096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 17.62433350344959, "peer_score": 6.129875066038932, "coverage": 0.9749426248338487, "relative_legacy_score": 0.08957778494547167, "weighted_coverage": 0.9749426248338487, "spot_peer_score": 6.964359194158992, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "baseline_archived_score": 17.62433350344959, "peer_archived_score": 6.129875066038932, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.08957778494547167, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.964359194158992, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20466\n- Original question title: If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms.\n> \n> If there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> On the question of, “How will we know that the chips were designed and fabricated by Chinese firms?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n> \n> - One example of the type of article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n> \n> - The admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n> \n> - If it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because given the amount of compute estimated to have been used in the training, and given the number of chips reported to be possessed by the Chinese lab (and therefore the compute they possess that comes from Chinese chips), it's unclear whether or not the 50% threshold is reached, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n> \n> - The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n> \n> - If there's a top Chinese model before 2027 for which there is good reason to suspect that a substantial fraction of the chips used in the training run were Chinese-designed and fabricated, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n> \n> ------\n> \n> A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n> \n> If a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20466,\"question_id\":20466,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`" }, { "id": 39667, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-09 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"By 2030, will banks offer $10B+ regulated DeFi yields with protections?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-by-2030-will-banks-offer-10b-regulated-defi-yields-with-protections", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.826508Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:12.897443Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:40.260022Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39044, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-09-09 for the Metaculus question \"Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.826911Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T03:53:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T21:40:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:12.576270Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T05:23:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171\n- Original question title: Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, 3 or more of the top 50 regulated traditional banks offer a regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) yield product while maintaining at least two of these three consumer protections:\n> \n> 1. Deposit Insurance: Principal protected by government-backed insurance (FDIC, FSCS, equivalent deposit guarantee schemes)\n> 2. Fraud/Error Recourse: Clear, legally binding process for disputing transactions and recovering funds from fraud or technical errors, comparable to traditional banking protections\n> 3. Liquidity Guarantees: Bank guarantees customer ability to withdraw funds within standard timeframes (e.g., settlement within 2 business days under normal conditions)\n> \n> Top 50 banks are those that rank in the top 50 globally by total assets according to [LexisNexis](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/article/bank-rankings-top-banks-in-the-world)[ ](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/50-largest-us-banks-by-total-assets-q1-2025-89121851)or, if that is unavailable, another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n> \n> DeFi yield products for purposes of this question means they must allocate customer assets via smart contracts to protocols on public, permissionless blockchains (e.g., Ethereum/L2s, Solana) in order to offer on-chain returns such as lending interest, staking rewards, liquidity-provision fees, or protocol incentive distributions. Products that simply custody crypto assets without yield generation do not qualify. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Yield must actually derive from DeFi protocols, not a bank's own lending activities.\n> \n> Products must meet all of the following:\n> \n> 1. Explicit DeFi Integration: Marketed as deriving returns from DeFi protocols (lending platforms like Aave/Compound, staking services like Lido, yield farming, liquidity provision)\n> 2. Retail Accessibility: Available to individual consumers, not just institutional clients\n> 3. Direct Bank Offering: Product issued directly by the bank, not merely facilitating access to third-party DeFi services\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n> \n> > *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> The d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n> \n> For more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39171,\"question_id\":38513,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171. If the community prediction on 2025-09-09 21:40:10 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39667, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756876068.739691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756876068.739691, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3640894308943089 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -40.24624524689498, "peer_score": 4.13127991399002, "coverage": 0.9494505590862699, "relative_legacy_score": -0.11931033051040307, "weighted_coverage": 0.9494505590862699, "spot_peer_score": 2.3026942717984054, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -40.24624524689498, "peer_archived_score": 4.13127991399002, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.11931033051040307, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3026942717984054, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39171\n- Original question title: Before 2030, will traditional banks offer regulated DeFi yield products, with consumer protections?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, 3 or more of the top 50 regulated traditional banks offer a regulated decentralized finance (DeFi) yield product while maintaining at least two of these three consumer protections:\n> \n> 1. Deposit Insurance: Principal protected by government-backed insurance (FDIC, FSCS, equivalent deposit guarantee schemes)\n> 2. Fraud/Error Recourse: Clear, legally binding process for disputing transactions and recovering funds from fraud or technical errors, comparable to traditional banking protections\n> 3. Liquidity Guarantees: Bank guarantees customer ability to withdraw funds within standard timeframes (e.g., settlement within 2 business days under normal conditions)\n> \n> Top 50 banks are those that rank in the top 50 globally by total assets according to [LexisNexis](https://risk.lexisnexis.com/insights-resources/article/bank-rankings-top-banks-in-the-world)[ ](https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/articles/2025/5/50-largest-us-banks-by-total-assets-q1-2025-89121851)or, if that is unavailable, another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n> \n> DeFi yield products for purposes of this question means they must allocate customer assets via smart contracts to protocols on public, permissionless blockchains (e.g., Ethereum/L2s, Solana) in order to offer on-chain returns such as lending interest, staking rewards, liquidity-provision fees, or protocol incentive distributions. Products that simply custody crypto assets without yield generation do not qualify. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Yield must actually derive from DeFi protocols, not a bank's own lending activities.\n> \n> Products must meet all of the following:\n> \n> 1. Explicit DeFi Integration: Marketed as deriving returns from DeFi protocols (lending platforms like Aave/Compound, staking services like Lido, yield farming, liquidity provision)\n> 2. Retail Accessibility: Available to individual consumers, not just institutional clients\n> 3. Direct Bank Offering: Product issued directly by the bank, not merely facilitating access to third-party DeFi services\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the D/acc 2035 Scenario (Decentralized, Democratic, Differential, Defensive Acceleration of artificial intelligence):*\n> \n> > *Most discussions of AI safety strategy focus on a binary: slow down development to buy time for alignment research, or centralize control to ensure responsible deployment. But what if there’s a third option for managing superintelligence risks, one that embraces rapid progress while distributing rather than concentrating power?*\n> \n> ***\n> \n> The d/acc scenario envisions \"TradFi-DeFi\" integration (traditional finance and [decentralized finance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decentralized_finance)) as a key mechanism enabling broader participation in decentralized finance while preserving consumer protections. This represents a critical test of whether decentralized financial systems can achieve mainstream adoption through gradual integration rather than wholesale replacement of traditional institutions. Currently, DeFi offers significantly higher yields (4-15%+ APY) compared to traditional savings accounts (\\~2-5%), but lacks consumer protections that make traditional banking trustworthy for mainstream users. Achieving \\$10B in regulated, protected DeFi products would signal that the technical, regulatory, and risk management challenges have been solved at scale, validating the d/acc premise that decentralized and centralized systems can be productively hybridized rather than remaining in competition. This milestone would demonstrate institutional confidence in DeFi's maturity and regulatory frameworks' ability to adapt to decentralized financial innovation.\n> \n> For more, visit: [<u>AI Pathways: Two Scenarios for the Future of AI</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39171,\"question_id\":38513,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 39666, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-nato-troops-in-ukraine-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.048620Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:13.444926Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.381475Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39043, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:39.049017Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T09:30:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:16:03Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:13.114767Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T11:00:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761\n- Original question title: Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n> * The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n> * The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n> * \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n> * A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n> * The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n> * The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n> * If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n> \n> NATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21761,\"question_id\":21761,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 00:16:03 is higher than 17.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39666, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756722227.684371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.465 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756722227.684371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.465 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3538761261261262 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.24266442715612, "peer_score": 3.790684534317598, "coverage": 0.9698267683276424, "relative_legacy_score": 0.21247534839531793, "weighted_coverage": 0.9698267683276424, "spot_peer_score": 3.979700422886689, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.24266442715612, "peer_archived_score": 3.790684534317598, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.21247534839531793, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.979700422886689, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21761\n- Original question title: Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n> * The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n> * The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n> * \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n> * \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n> * A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n> * The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n> * The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n> * If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n> \n> NATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21761,\"question_id\":21761,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`" }, { "id": 39665, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 87.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New FOMC member is appointed before any term is up and before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-fomc-member-is-appointed-before-any-term-is-up-and-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.138878Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:13.943764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.487988Z", "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39042, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 87.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:38.139264Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T13:26:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T16:15:11Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:13.646091Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T14:56:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329\n- Original question title: Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 87.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 20, 2025 and before January 20, 2029:\n> \n> * A Federal Open Market Committee member resigns or is removed before their term expires and the US President designates a replacement, OR\n> * The US President appoints one or more additional members to the FOMC beyond those expected under normal succession (i.e., through replacement of members whose term has expired or who have resigned).\n> \n> If neither occurs before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will not resolve **Yes** until the nominee is confirmed by the US Senate.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n> \n> * 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n> * The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n> * 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n> \n> Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36329,\"question_id\":35752,\"last_cp\":0.87}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329. If the community prediction on 2025-09-10 16:15:11 is higher than 87.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39665, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756910080.286183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756910080.286183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.45767088607594936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.986394055149688, "peer_score": -1.2899028807502613, "coverage": 0.9635593907479887, "relative_legacy_score": -0.18555575144458186, "weighted_coverage": 0.9635593907479887, "spot_peer_score": -3.313445201175467, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -28.986394055149688, "peer_archived_score": -1.2899028807502613, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.18555575144458186, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.313445201175467, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36329\n- Original question title: Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 87.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 20, 2025 and before January 20, 2029:\n> \n> * A Federal Open Market Committee member resigns or is removed before their term expires and the US President designates a replacement, OR\n> * The US President appoints one or more additional members to the FOMC beyond those expected under normal succession (i.e., through replacement of members whose term has expired or who have resigned).\n> \n> If neither occurs before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will not resolve **Yes** until the nominee is confirmed by the US Senate.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is responsible for setting US monetary policy, including decisions on interest rates and asset purchases. The committee consists of:\n> \n> * 7 members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate.\n> * The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (a permanent member).\n> * 4 rotating regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on the committee.\n> \n> Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors serve staggered 14-year terms, meaning they typically remain in office across multiple presidential administrations. However, presidents have occasionally replaced members early or added new members under exceptional circumstances.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36329,\"question_id\":35752,\"last_cp\":0.87}}`" }, { "id": 39664, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-russia-attack-a-european-nato-member-before-2035", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.277099Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:14.483613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.621379Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39041, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2025-09-12 for the Metaculus question \"Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:37.277480Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:06:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T00:10:24Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:14.150695Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:36:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825\n- Original question title: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n> \n> For this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n> \n> * The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n> * A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n> * A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n> \n> Cyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n> \n> A country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> \n> As of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n> \n> > If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> > \n> > The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> > \n> > It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> > \n> > Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> > \n> > Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38825,\"question_id\":38146,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825. If the community prediction on 2025-09-12 00:10:24 is higher than 12.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39664, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727169.682091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727169.682091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.365 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.635, 0.365 ], "means": [ 0.37482432432432433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -47.35258235700982, "peer_score": 5.648195638736759, "coverage": 0.9906641247978916, "relative_legacy_score": -0.23222201407586562, "weighted_coverage": 0.9906641247978916, "spot_peer_score": 6.27494502606386, "spot_baseline_score": -45.40316308947075, "baseline_archived_score": -47.35258235700982, "peer_archived_score": 5.648195638736759, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.23222201407586562, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.27494502606386, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -45.40316308947075 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38825\n- Original question title: Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-31: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n> \n> For this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n> \n> * The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n> * A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n> * A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n> \n> Cyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n> \n> A country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> \n> As of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n> \n> > If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> > \n> > The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> > \n> > It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> > \n> > Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> > \n> > Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38825,\"question_id\":38146,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`" }, { "id": 39663, "title": "Will MA's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "MA's close price rises?", "url_title": "MA's close price rises?", "slug": "mas-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.333879Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:15.046013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.914277Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39040, "title": "Will MA's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:36.334289Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:29:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T22:50:43Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:14.721352Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:59:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mastercard Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:22) is 595.29. You can find more information about Mastercard Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MA\n\nMastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from a physical card and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs and financial institutions to help governments and nonprofits, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; personalization, issuer and merchant loyalty, and marketing services; advanced analytics, business intelligence, economic and location-based insights, payments consulting, and operational insights services; processing and gateway solutions; and open banking services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MA\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MA. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39663, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756765578.571134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756765578.571134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5500363247863249 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0, 6.0, 5.0, 16.0, 5.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.825886904769636, "peer_score": 1.2402858329565287, "coverage": 0.9818263840675354, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03839155890667767, "weighted_coverage": 0.9818263840675354, "spot_peer_score": 0.7808133539439989, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.825886904769636, "peer_archived_score": 1.2402858329565287, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03839155890667767, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.7808133539439989, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mastercard Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:22) is 595.29. You can find more information about Mastercard Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MA\n\nMastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts; prepaid programs services; consumer bill payment services; and commercial credit, debit, and prepaid payment products and solutions. It also provides solutions that enable businesses or governments to make payments to businesses, including Virtual Card Number, which is generated dynamically from a physical card and leverages the credit limit of the funding account; and a platform to optimize supplier payment enablement campaigns for financial institutions. In addition, the company offers Mastercard Move, which partners with digital messaging and payment platforms to enable consumers to send money directly within applications to other consumers; and partners with central banks, fintechs and financial institutions to help governments and nonprofits, as well as enables various cross-border payment flows. Further, it provides security solutions; personalization, issuer and merchant loyalty, and marketing services; advanced analytics, business intelligence, economic and location-based insights, payments consulting, and operational insights services; processing and gateway solutions; and open banking services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus names. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MA\"}}`" }, { "id": 39662, "title": "Will CBRE's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "short_title": "CBRE's close price rises?", "url_title": "CBRE's close price rises?", "slug": "cbres-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.376647Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:15.610950Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.947931Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39039, "title": "Will CBRE's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-02?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:35.377038Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T21:56:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T13:24:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:15.261003Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T23:26:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CBRE Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CBRE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:21) is 162.12. You can find more information about CBRE Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CBRE\n\nCBRE Group, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate services and investment company in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The Advisory Services segment offers strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing of offices, and industrial and retail space; clients fully integrated property sales services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; clients commercial mortgage and structured financing services; originates and sells commercial mortgage loans; property management services, such as marketing, building engineering, accounting, and financial services on a contractual basis for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. The Global Workplace Solutions segment provides facilities management, including day-to-day management of client-occupied space, headquarters, regional offices, administrative offices, data centers and other critical facilities, manufacturing and laboratory facilities, and distribution facilities and retail space; and project management services comprising building consulting, program, and project and cost management services under the Turner & Townsend brand name. The Real Estate Investments segment offers investment management services under the CBRE Investment Management brand to pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments, and other institutional investors; and development services, such as real estate development and investment activities under the Trammell Crow Company and Telford Homes brands to users and investors in commercial real estate, and for their own account. CBRE Group, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CBRE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CBRE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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The Advisory Services segment offers strategic advice and execution to owners, investors, and occupiers of real estate in connection with leasing of offices, and industrial and retail space; clients fully integrated property sales services under the CBRE Capital Markets brand; clients commercial mortgage and structured financing services; originates and sells commercial mortgage loans; property management services, such as marketing, building engineering, accounting, and financial services on a contractual basis for owners of and investors in office, industrial, and retail properties; and valuation services that include market value appraisals, litigation support, discounted cash flow analyses, and feasibility studies, as well as consulting services, such as property condition reports, hotel advisory, and environmental consulting. 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It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. 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It's ticker is NTRS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:18) is 131.28. You can find more information about Northern Trust Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NTRS\n\nNorthern Trust Corporation, a financial holding company, provides wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions for corporations, institutions, families, and individuals worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Servicing and Wealth Management. The Asset Servicing segment offers asset servicing and related services, including custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, investment management, investment risk and analytical services, employee benefit services, securities lending, foreign exchange, treasury management, brokerage services, transition management services, banking, and cash management services. This segment serves corporate and public retirement funds, foundations, endowments, fund managers, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and other institutional investors. The Wealth Management segment offers trust, investment management, custody, and philanthropic; financial consulting; guardianship and estate administration; family business consulting; family financial education; brokerage services; and private and business banking services. This segment serves high-net-worth individuals and families, business owners, executives, professionals, retirees, and established privately-held businesses. The company provides asset management services, such as active and passive equity; active and passive fixed income; cash management; muti-asset and alternative asset classes comprising private equity and hedge funds of funds; and multi-manager advisory services and products through separately managed accounts, bank common and collective funds, registered investment companies, exchange traded funds, non-U.S. collective investment funds, and unregistered private investment funds. In addition, it offers overlay and other risk management services. 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It's ticker is UDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:17) is 39.57. You can find more information about UDR, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UDR\n\nUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of March 31, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,047 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development. For over 52 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UDR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of UDR. 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It's ticker is J. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:14) is 146.23. You can find more information about Jacobs Solutions Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/J\n\nJacobs Solutions Inc. engages in the infrastructure and advanced facilities, and consulting businesses in the United States, Europe, Canada, India, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers consulting, planning, architecture, design, engineering, and infrastructure delivery services including project, program, and construction management and long-term operation of facilities. It also provides consulting services for consumer and manufacturing, defense and security, energy and utilities, financial services, government, health and life sciences, and transport sectors. 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It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CMS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39657, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5253063063063064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 11.0, 5.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.033446436560807, "peer_score": 2.188074200878629, "coverage": 0.929573459978457, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03790657863543029, "weighted_coverage": 0.929573459978457, "spot_peer_score": -0.15876172131595298, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -9.033446436560807, "peer_archived_score": 2.188074200878629, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03790657863543029, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.15876172131595298, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`" } ] }