27 forecasters

Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?

10%chance

5 pp this week

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 5, 2025