Question

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

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Authors:

skmmcj

Opens:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2034

Geopolitics

Europe must strengthen defense within 5 years amid Russian threats, Frederiksen warns

PBS NewsHour•Jul 8, 2025

The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years. It’s unclear how that could be done.

Associated Press•Jul 8, 2025

Putin will attack Nato country to keep Europe distracted while Xi invades Taiwan, warns Rutte

Independent•Jul 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

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Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Authors:

skmmcj

Opens:

Jul 10, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 31, 2034

Geopolitics

Europe must strengthen defense within 5 years amid Russian threats, Frederiksen warns

PBS NewsHour•Jul 8, 2025

The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years. It’s unclear how that could be done.

Associated Press•Jul 8, 2025

Putin will attack Nato country to keep Europe distracted while Xi invades Taiwan, warns Rutte

Independent•Jul 8, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%