Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=480
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=460", "results": [ { "id": 36025, "title": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US withdraw from arms control agreements in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US withdraw from arms control agreements in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-withdraw-from-arms-control-agreements-in-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-14T23:23:17.451371Z", "published_at": "2025-03-17T15:33:40.154293Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T22:14:15.210414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-17T15:33:40.154291Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:33:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T09:17:08.910645Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T09:17:08.910645Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35459, "title": "Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-14T23:23:17.451805Z", "open_time": "2025-03-18T15:33:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-22T15:33:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-22T15:33:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration’s first term saw a pattern of withdrawing from international arms control agreements, including:\n\n* **INF Treaty (**[**2019**](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/)**)** – U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.\n* **Open Skies Treaty (**[**2020**](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/us-completes-open-skies-treaty-withdrawal)**)** – Trump announced withdrawal, citing Russian non-compliance.\n* **Iran Nuclear Deal (**[**2018**](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html)**)** – The U.S. exited the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions.\n\nWith Trump's return to office in 2025, there is renewed concern that his administration may withdraw from key arms control agreements, particularly those seen as restricting U.S. military capabilities. The agreements most at risk include:\n\n1. [**New START**](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty) **(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)**, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, limiting strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It is set to expire in 2026, but there are concerns that Trump may refuse renewal or suspend compliance before then.\n2. [**The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)**](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention) a global ban on chemical weapons with strong bipartisan support, but potential friction due to compliance disputes with China and Russia.\n3. [**The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)**](https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/) the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation. While withdrawal is unlikely, Trump has expressed skepticism toward arms control constraints in the past.\n4. [**The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)**](https://www.ctbto.org/our-mission/the-treaty) though never ratified by the U.S., Trump officials previously floated the idea of resuming nuclear testing—potentially violating the spirit of the treaty.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the Trump administration has formally attempted to withdraw from or significantly reduce U.S. participation in at least one of the following seven international arms control agreements:\n\n* New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)\n* The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)\n* The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)\n* The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)\n* Biological Weapons Convention (BWC)\n* Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW)\n* Outer Space Treaty (OST)\n\nA formal attempt to withdraw includes, but is not limited to, any of the following:\n\n1. Official notification of withdrawal: The U.S. government formally notifies treaty partners, the United Nations, or other relevant bodies of its intent to exit an arms control agreement.\n2. Legally binding action: The administration takes executive action, submits a withdrawal request to Congress (where required), or engages in legal or procedural steps toward exiting an agreement.\n3. Suspension of compliance: The administration officially announces that it will no longer comply with the obligations of an agreement, effectively nullifying U.S. participation.\n4. Substantive defunding: The administration or Congress enacts a significant funding cut (at least 50%) to an agreement’s implementation, undermining U.S. participation.\n\nIf no formal attempt to withdraw from any of the seven treaties is made by January 1, 2026, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will *not* resolve as **Yes** based solely on:\n\n* Rhetorical statements: If Trump or senior officials publicly criticize an agreement but do not take concrete steps to exit.\n* Exploratory reviews: If the administration commissions a study or internal review on withdrawing but does not take formal action.\n* Negotiated revisions: If the administration renegotiates an agreement but does not seek withdrawal.\n\n***\n\n* CTBT was never ratified by the US. Despite that, this question could still resolve based the US announcing a policy of non-compliance, as stated in criterion #3.\n* New START is set to expire in February 2026. A non-extension would not resolve this question as **Yes**. The US would have to either withdraw before February 2026 or extend the treaty and withdraw afterwards.\n\nIf there is ambiguity regarding whether an attempt meets the criteria, expert assessments from organizations such as the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/), [Brookings Institution](https://www.brookings.edu/), or [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/) will be considered by Metaculus to resolve this question.", "post_id": 36025, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753107075.912426, "end_time": 1753235873.517079, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753107075.912426, "end_time": 1753235873.517079, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3486854166783539 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1963809747838439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.36664430289179084, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7629399570629838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration’s first term saw a pattern of withdrawing from international arms control agreements, including:\n\n* **INF Treaty (**[**2019**](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/)**)** – U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.\n* **Open Skies Treaty (**[**2020**](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/us-completes-open-skies-treaty-withdrawal)**)** – Trump announced withdrawal, citing Russian non-compliance.\n* **Iran Nuclear Deal (**[**2018**](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html)**)** – The U.S. exited the JCPOA, leading to renewed tensions.\n\nWith Trump's return to office in 2025, there is renewed concern that his administration may withdraw from key arms control agreements, particularly those seen as restricting U.S. military capabilities. The agreements most at risk include:\n\n1. [**New START**](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty) **(Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)**, the last remaining U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control treaty, limiting strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. It is set to expire in 2026, but there are concerns that Trump may refuse renewal or suspend compliance before then.\n2. [**The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)**](https://www.opcw.org/chemical-weapons-convention) a global ban on chemical weapons with strong bipartisan support, but potential friction due to compliance disputes with China and Russia.\n3. [**The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)**](https://disarmament.unoda.org/wmd/nuclear/npt/) the cornerstone of global nuclear non-proliferation. While withdrawal is unlikely, Trump has expressed skepticism toward arms control constraints in the past.\n4. [**The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)**](https://www.ctbto.org/our-mission/the-treaty) though never ratified by the U.S., Trump officials previously floated the idea of resuming nuclear testing—potentially violating the spirit of the treaty." }, { "id": 36024, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "short_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "url_title": "US and China diplmoatic engagement on nuclear risk reduction", "slug": "us-and-china-diplmoatic-engagement-on-nuclear-risk-reduction", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-14T23:15:14.167979Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T12:55:17.118114Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T06:46:49.011586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-18T12:55:17.118111Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T09:17:08.910645Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T09:17:08.910645Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35458, "title": "Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-14T23:15:14.168395Z", "open_time": "2025-03-19T12:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-23T12:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-23T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the U.S. and China have engaged in discussions regarding nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction in 2025.\n\nThis could be any official meeting, working group, or diplomatic exchange between authorized representatives of both countries, or any track 1.5 or track 2 dialogues officially acknowledged by at least one of the U.S. or China.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if a new joint agreement, statement, or framework involving the U.S. and China is announced that addresses nuclear arms control, crisis management, or risk reduction.", "fine_print": "* Talks or agreements could involve any number of countries besides the U.S. and China, as long as both of them formally acknowledge or endorse them.\n* Talks or agreements do not have to center nuclear arms control or risk reduction, as long as they involve them to a significant amount.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding whether the criteria have been fulfilled, the question will be resolved based on the consensus of expert analysis from reputable sources, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Arms Control Association, or official U.S. and Chinese government statements.", "post_id": 36024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752821198.791728, "end_time": 1753327791.537661, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.278 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752821198.791728, "end_time": 1753327791.537661, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.278 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22504324058698946 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[U.S.-China nuclear relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have become an increasing point of concern for global security. China is rapidly [expanding its nuclear arsenal](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2025/), with [projections](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-01/news/pentagon-says-chinese-nuclear-arsenal-still-growing) that it will have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. has signaled growing concern over strategic stability with China, given the absence of arms control agreements similar to those that exist with Russia.\n\nHistorically, diplomatic engagement on [nuclear risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations#Nuclear_security) between the U.S. and China has been limited, as China has been reluctant to participate in formal arms control negotiations, citing its much smaller nuclear arsenal compared to the U.S. and Russia. However, there have been some modest signs of progress, recently. Ιn [November 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-china-hold-first-informal-nuclear-talks-5-years-eyeing-taiwan-2024-06-21/), U.S. and Chinese officials held their first formal nuclear risk reduction talks in over four years.\n\nThat said, several challenges remain:\n\n* **Taiwan tensions**: Any escalation in the Taiwan Strait could derail diplomatic efforts.\n* **Chinese skepticism**: Beijing has long viewed U.S. calls for nuclear dialogue as an attempt to constrain its strategic capabilities.\n* **U.S. political uncertainty**: The return of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2025 has raised questions about continuity in diplomatic efforts." }, { "id": 36022, "title": "Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-boeings-stock-price-exceed-210-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 237476, "author_username": "NextWorldLab", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-14T16:00:56.338748Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T15:38:21.264230Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T12:59:38.954606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T15:38:21.264227Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T15:37:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35453, "title": "Will Boeing's stock price exceed $210 on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-14T16:00:56.339153Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T15:37:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-20T15:37:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-20T15:37:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Boeing's (ticker: BA) stock price closes above \\$210.00 on December 31, 2025, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If Boeing undergoes any stock splits, reverse splits, or such actions affecting its stock price before December 31, 2025, the stock price at resolution will be adjusted to its corresponding pre-split value.", "post_id": 36022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753111885.975618, "end_time": 1753399494.311772, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753111885.975618, "end_time": 1753399494.311772, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6081297789546699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6023506687171092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing's stock has seen a weak downward trend over 2024 and 2025, closing at \\$161.81 on March 14, 2025, 11% down from the same date one year before. The company has faced various challenges in recent years, including production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain disruptions. Despite these issues, analysts have slightly positive projections regarding Boeing's stock performance. On average, [they give](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-BA/forecast/) a one-year price target of \\$197.35, with Citi's analyst Jason Gursky [giving a target of \\$210](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/boeing-ba-receives-a-buy-from-citi-1034340849) and Jefferies' analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu [one of \\$220](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/49254669/jefferies-maintains-boeing-baus-with-buy-rating-raises-target-price?level=1\\&data_ticket=1742051585490629). In 2025, Boeing [is expected](https://www.cirium.com/thoughtcloud/will-engine-deliveries-continue-to-pace-single-aisle-aircraft-shipments-in-2025/) to deliver 550 passenger aircraft, which could generate around \\$84 billion." }, { "id": 36021, "title": "Will Boeing's total revenue for 2025 be equal to or higher than $85 billion?", "short_title": "Boeing's total revenue for 2025 will exceed $85 billion?", "url_title": "Boeing's total revenue for 2025 will exceed $85 billion?", "slug": "boeings-total-revenue-for-2025-will-exceed-85-billion", "author_id": 237476, "author_username": "NextWorldLab", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-14T15:25:46.430307Z", "published_at": "2025-03-18T03:29:29.746277Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T20:47:30.180742Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-18T03:29:29.746275Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-04T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T03:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35452, "title": "Will Boeing's total revenue for 2025 be equal to or higher than $85 billion?", "created_at": "2025-03-14T15:25:46.430711Z", "open_time": "2025-03-20T03:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-24T03:29:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-24T03:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-04T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Boeing, one of the world's largest aerospace and defense companies, has faced a challenging recovery in recent years due to supply chain issues, production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and increased competition from Airbus and other manufacturers. While the company has not provided an official revenue target for 2025, financial analysts and industry experts have projected that its total revenue could approach or exceed \\$85 billion.\n\nFor example, Forbes analysts project Boeing’s 2025 revenue to be approximately \\$85 billion, compared to \\$77.8 billion in 2023 ([Forbes, Jan 2025](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/01/06/whats-in-store-for-boeing-stock-in-2025/)) Similarly, Citi analyst Jason Gursky estimates Boeing will generate around \\$84 billion in sales for 2025, assuming the company delivers approximately 550 aircraft ([Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-price-trump-trade-war-b11c2ba6?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n\nSeveral factors will influence Boeing's ability to meet or exceed \\$85 billion in revenue for 2025:\n\n* Commercial Aircraft Deliveries: Boeing aims to increase production of its 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner, and 777X models, but supply chain constraints and regulatory challenges could impact deliveries. The company delivered 528 aircraft in 2023, and increasing that number will be key to revenue growth ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-dismal-deliveries-scale-challenge-kelly-ortberg-2025-1?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Defense and Space Contracts: Boeing’s revenue includes government contracts such as the KC-46 tanker program and NASA’s Artemis missions. However, delays or cost overruns in defense projects could impact financial performance. Boeing has also faced technical setbacks, including Starliner spacecraft issues ([The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boeing-is-too-big-to-fail-heres-how-it-can-escape-its-tailspin-9500h6gfs?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Global Airline Demand: The demand for new aircraft depends on post-pandemic airline fleet expansions and macroeconomic conditions. Airbus’s A321XLR, which has secured over 500 orders from airlines that previously relied on Boeing, represents increased competition ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airbus-new-jet-xlr-boeing-21a82d95?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Macroeconomic Conditions: Interest rates, inflation, and airline fuel prices could impact new aircraft orders. Additionally, trade policies, tariffs, and defense spending uncertainty could affect revenue projections ([Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-price-trump-trade-war-b11c2ba6?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Ongoing investigations into Boeing's aircraft manufacturing and certification processes could impact the company’s ability to scale production. Reports of substandard parts used in Boeing 787 jets in 2025 have raised concerns about quality control ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-deliveries-rise-63-february-year-earlier-2025-03-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if Boeing's total revenues for the fiscal year 2025, as reported in its official financial statements, is greater than or equal to \\$85 billion USD, according to its [filings](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=12927\\&owner=exclude) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or its investor relations website ([https://investors.boeing.com](https://investors.boeing.com/)).\n\nIf its revenues are less than, it will resolve as **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "If Boeing changes its fiscal year structure, the resolution will be based on whichever 12-month period covers December 31, 2025. \n\nIf Boeing ceases to exist, such as through being acquired or through Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the question will be annulled.\n\nThe revenue figure considered will be total revenues, as explicitly stated in the report. For example, for 2024, this [was](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/12927/000001292725000015/ba-20241231.htm#id1c05d330321418986ba31cdc86483bf_184) \\$66,517 million or \\$66.517 billion.\n\nIf Boeing does not timely file its 10-K for 2025 nor provide revenue numbers for 2025 on its IR page, the question's resolution will wait until it does. If there is no information provided as of January 1, 2026, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 36021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753007930.595736, "end_time": 1754614218.141, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753007930.595736, "end_time": 1754614218.141, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.409505309077951 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of the world's largest aerospace and defense companies, has faced a challenging recovery in recent years due to supply chain issues, production delays, regulatory scrutiny, and increased competition from Airbus and other manufacturers. While the company has not provided an official revenue target for 2025, financial analysts and industry experts have projected that its total revenue could approach or exceed \\$85 billion.\n\nFor example, Forbes analysts project Boeing’s 2025 revenue to be approximately \\$85 billion, compared to \\$77.8 billion in 2023 ([Forbes, Jan 2025](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/01/06/whats-in-store-for-boeing-stock-in-2025/)) Similarly, Citi analyst Jason Gursky estimates Boeing will generate around \\$84 billion in sales for 2025, assuming the company delivers approximately 550 aircraft ([Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-price-trump-trade-war-b11c2ba6?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n\nSeveral factors will influence Boeing's ability to meet or exceed \\$85 billion in revenue for 2025:\n\n* Commercial Aircraft Deliveries: Boeing aims to increase production of its 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner, and 777X models, but supply chain constraints and regulatory challenges could impact deliveries. The company delivered 528 aircraft in 2023, and increasing that number will be key to revenue growth ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/boeing-dismal-deliveries-scale-challenge-kelly-ortberg-2025-1?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Defense and Space Contracts: Boeing’s revenue includes government contracts such as the KC-46 tanker program and NASA’s Artemis missions. However, delays or cost overruns in defense projects could impact financial performance. Boeing has also faced technical setbacks, including Starliner spacecraft issues ([The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boeing-is-too-big-to-fail-heres-how-it-can-escape-its-tailspin-9500h6gfs?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Global Airline Demand: The demand for new aircraft depends on post-pandemic airline fleet expansions and macroeconomic conditions. Airbus’s A321XLR, which has secured over 500 orders from airlines that previously relied on Boeing, represents increased competition ([Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/airbus-new-jet-xlr-boeing-21a82d95?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Macroeconomic Conditions: Interest rates, inflation, and airline fuel prices could impact new aircraft orders. Additionally, trade policies, tariffs, and defense spending uncertainty could affect revenue projections ([Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-price-trump-trade-war-b11c2ba6?utm_source=chatgpt.com)).\n* Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Ongoing investigations into Boeing's aircraft manufacturing and certification processes could impact the company’s ability to scale production. Reports of substandard parts used in Boeing 787 jets in 2025 have raised concerns about quality control ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-deliveries-rise-63-february-year-earlier-2025-03-11/?utm_source=chatgpt.com))" }, { "id": 36016, "title": "Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?", "short_title": "Another Russian or UK diplomat expulsion before Apr 8, 2025?", "url_title": "Another Russian or UK diplomat expulsion before Apr 8, 2025?", "slug": "another-russian-or-uk-diplomat-expulsion-before-apr-8-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T22:31:15.149492Z", "published_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:32.832336Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:51.057915Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:32.832334Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35448, "title": "Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-13T22:31:15.149909Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T01:17:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T01:17:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T09:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-08T09:12:29.605075Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Diplomatic tensions between Russia and the UK have been rising since 2024, with expulsions from both sides. In May 2024 the UK [expelled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/uk-to-expel-russian-defence-attache-as-sanctions-escalate) Russia’s defence attache as an \"undeclared military intelligence officer\", removed diplomatic premises status from several Russian-owned properties, and imposed new restrictions on Russian diplomatic visas. Then, in September, Russia retaliated by [accusing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw8wp0w29vo) six UK diplomats for spying and revoked their accreditation, terminating their diplomatic status in Russia. This [was followed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98dzyg8y3ro) by a UK diplomat expulsion in November, also accused of spying by Russia. The diplomatic standoff has continued into 2025, in a tit-for-tat fashion, with the UK [expelling](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8xp5gg04do) one diplomat in February, Russia [responding](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/europe/russia-expels-british-diplomats-intl/index.html) with two expulsions in early March, and the UK promptly responding by [expelling](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/12/uk-accuses-russia-of-driving-its-moscow-embassy-towards-closure) one more diplomat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 8, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) have reported that any of the following has taken place between the UK and Russia after March 14, 2025:\n\n* The expulsion of at least one diplomat.\n* The recall of at least one diplomat.\n* The revocation of the accreditation of at least one diplomat.", "fine_print": "To resolve as **Yes**, the event has to involve an individual described as a diplomat by credible sources or an individual meeting the definition of a diplomatic agent [by LSData](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent):\n\n> ...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests.", "post_id": 36016, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743405327.666692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.108 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743405327.666692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.108 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06785464836887561 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0716991995484342, 1.1958537661886137, 0.3613315105385659, 1.8966575665148446, 0.3841441522278119, 1.529894651172568, 0.7650171851483293, 0.0, 0.7876430811287041, 0.18037658447122673, 1.2057043401659584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637784706721771, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.5175953131017844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06984569336479438, 0.4529032168022812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.024860029029178946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 0.07964779781950536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.4887800805907, "peer_score": 10.354032578730763, "coverage": 0.9989121215572715, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989121215572715, "spot_peer_score": 26.26717283960905, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 68.4887800805907, "peer_archived_score": 10.354032578730763, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.26717283960905, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 329, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Diplomatic tensions between Russia and the UK have been rising since 2024, with expulsions from both sides. In May 2024 the UK [expelled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/uk-to-expel-russian-defence-attache-as-sanctions-escalate) Russia’s defence attache as an \"undeclared military intelligence officer\", removed diplomatic premises status from several Russian-owned properties, and imposed new restrictions on Russian diplomatic visas. Then, in September, Russia retaliated by [accusing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw8wp0w29vo) six UK diplomats for spying and revoked their accreditation, terminating their diplomatic status in Russia. This [was followed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98dzyg8y3ro) by a UK diplomat expulsion in November, also accused of spying by Russia. The diplomatic standoff has continued into 2025, in a tit-for-tat fashion, with the UK [expelling](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8xp5gg04do) one diplomat in February, Russia [responding](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/europe/russia-expels-british-diplomats-intl/index.html) with two expulsions in early March, and the UK promptly responding by [expelling](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/12/uk-accuses-russia-of-driving-its-moscow-embassy-towards-closure) one more diplomat." }, { "id": 36013, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?", "short_title": "Major civil unrest or martial law in Philippines in 2025?", "url_title": "Major civil unrest or martial law in Philippines in 2025?", "slug": "major-civil-unrest-or-martial-law-in-philippines-in-2025", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:15.666955Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T12:40:45.321727Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T02:30:07.941634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-19T12:40:45.321725Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-21T12:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35443, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:15.667299Z", "open_time": "2025-03-21T12:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-25T12:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-25T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2025, [former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) and flown to the Netherlands for trial at the [International Criminal Court](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court). Current president Bongbong Marcos has said the arrest is not political repression against his predecessor, who is the father of current vice president Sara Duterte. Marcos is the son of [Ferdinand Marcos](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ferdinand-E-Marcos), Philippines head of state from 1965 to 1986, who ruled as an authoritarian, including a 9-year period of martial law.\n\nThe Philippines has experienced [decades of civil conflict of varying intensity, including by separatists, communists, and state actors](https://gsdrc.org/publications/conflict-analysis-of-the-philippines/). Conflict deaths since 1989 are over 20,000, averaging 585 per year ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-country?tab=chart\\&country=~PHL)):\n\n\n\nGeographically, these conflicts are concentrated in [Mindanao](https://www.britannica.com/place/Mindanao), a southern island that is the Philippines' second largest. Truces among and within these groups are [often mediated by the military or police](https://apnews.com/article/southern-philippines-land-dispute-moro-islamic-liberation-front-a9d2d4e185409279a21f19c2deaae368). Prior to his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte had served as a popular mayor of Davao City, Mindanao's largest city. Duterte's relative popularity in the Davao area stems partly from his reputation as a law-and-order figure and effective truce broker among local fighting groups.\n\n[Martial law has been declared four times in the history of the Philippines](https://www.esquiremag.ph/long-reads/features/martial-law-in-the-philippines-a00289-20200922-lfrm?s=ths48uim0s26782srnenrq1vj2): in 1944, 1972, 2009, and 2017.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that any of the following has occurred in the Philippines after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2026:\n\n* Declaration of martial law anywhere in the Philippines\n* The deaths of at least 1,000 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents, cumulative throughout 2025\n* The arrest of at least 5,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents, cumulative throughout 2025\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "For deaths or arrests to count toward the overall toll, they must occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Deaths from generic shootings or homicides, or those that occur due to medical emergencies not related to rioting or unrest, do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides do not count.\n\nMartial law must be declared by the national government, but it need not be national in scope. The [2017 declaration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proclamation_No._216) applied only to Mindanao; a similar declaration during 2025 would result in **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 36013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753154454.730762, "end_time": 1754620069.447, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753154454.730762, "end_time": 1754620069.447, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.142 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.858, 0.142 ], "means": [ 0.2032529815282609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0695798816907605, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2025, [former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) and flown to the Netherlands for trial at the [International Criminal Court](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court). Current president Bongbong Marcos has said the arrest is not political repression against his predecessor, who is the father of current vice president Sara Duterte. Marcos is the son of [Ferdinand Marcos](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ferdinand-E-Marcos), Philippines head of state from 1965 to 1986, who ruled as an authoritarian, including a 9-year period of martial law.\n\nThe Philippines has experienced [decades of civil conflict of varying intensity, including by separatists, communists, and state actors](https://gsdrc.org/publications/conflict-analysis-of-the-philippines/). Conflict deaths since 1989 are over 20,000, averaging 585 per year ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-country?tab=chart\\&country=~PHL)):\n\n\n\nGeographically, these conflicts are concentrated in [Mindanao](https://www.britannica.com/place/Mindanao), a southern island that is the Philippines' second largest. Truces among and within these groups are [often mediated by the military or police](https://apnews.com/article/southern-philippines-land-dispute-moro-islamic-liberation-front-a9d2d4e185409279a21f19c2deaae368). Prior to his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte had served as a popular mayor of Davao City, Mindanao's largest city. Duterte's relative popularity in the Davao area stems partly from his reputation as a law-and-order figure and effective truce broker among local fighting groups.\n\n[Martial law has been declared four times in the history of the Philippines](https://www.esquiremag.ph/long-reads/features/martial-law-in-the-philippines-a00289-20200922-lfrm?s=ths48uim0s26782srnenrq1vj2): in 1944, 1972, 2009, and 2017." }, { "id": 36012, "title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?", "short_title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?", "url_title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?", "slug": "will-rodrigo-duterte-be-convicted-by-the-icc-by-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T12:15:23.833590Z", "published_at": "2025-03-19T12:52:59.983250Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-15T06:56:57.819832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-19T12:52:59.983248Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-23T12:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35442, "title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-03-13T12:15:23.833922Z", "open_time": "2025-03-23T12:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-27T12:52:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-27T12:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2025, fomer president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte [was arrested in the Manila airport](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and flown to the Netherlands to begin trial at The Hague. The ICC stated that the charges included [\"murder as a crime against humanity allegedly committed in the Philippines between Nov. 1, 2011, and March 16, 2019.\"](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) The alleged murders are connected with anti-drug crackdowns which Duterte led as president, and earlier as mayor of Davao.\n\nIn a speech two days earlier, [Duterte had mentioned the possibility of being arrested](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-duterte-hong-kong-icc-b3edef9d7e5dafa1a2a8024f3729e61d):\n\n> “What was my sin?” Duterte asked in his speech in Hong Kong. “I did everything in my time so Filipinos can have a little peace and tranquility.”\n\n> “If this is my fate in life, it’s OK, I’ll accept it. I can’t do anything if I get arrested and jailed,” said the former populist president, now 79 and in poor health.\n\n> He told the crowd in jest to make small contributions for the construction of his monument, which he said should show him holding a gun.\n\n[The ICC was established in 2002 and has 125 member countries](https://apnews.com/article/duterte-icc-philippines-arrest-court-hague-6d5fc9ee32c14126c6867be1108a2e80) as of 2025. Several prominent countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are not members. The Philippines withdrew in 2019 under Duterte's presidency. According to the ICC, its jurisdiction [\"extends to offenses that occurred after July 1, 2002, that were committed either in a state that has ratified the agreement or by a national of such a state.\"](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court)\n\nThe ICC does not have its own police force, but it has a detention facility in The Hague. The ICC has issued 60 arrest warrants in its history, including against high-profile figures like Russian president Vladimir Putin, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir. The Court has convicted 11 people.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the International Criminal Court has convicted Rodrigo Duterte of a crime prior to January 1, 2030. Resolution is still Yes even if Duterte is never sentenced or if the conviction is later invalidated or overturned. Resolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 36012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752562607.398346, "end_time": 1757718119.263195, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752562607.398346, "end_time": 1757718119.263195, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8171192435124774 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6976927563250288, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6196358796078174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.20879348632548 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2025, fomer president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte [was arrested in the Manila airport](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and flown to the Netherlands to begin trial at The Hague. The ICC stated that the charges included [\"murder as a crime against humanity allegedly committed in the Philippines between Nov. 1, 2011, and March 16, 2019.\"](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) The alleged murders are connected with anti-drug crackdowns which Duterte led as president, and earlier as mayor of Davao.\n\nIn a speech two days earlier, [Duterte had mentioned the possibility of being arrested](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-duterte-hong-kong-icc-b3edef9d7e5dafa1a2a8024f3729e61d):\n\n> “What was my sin?” Duterte asked in his speech in Hong Kong. “I did everything in my time so Filipinos can have a little peace and tranquility.”\n\n> “If this is my fate in life, it’s OK, I’ll accept it. I can’t do anything if I get arrested and jailed,” said the former populist president, now 79 and in poor health.\n\n> He told the crowd in jest to make small contributions for the construction of his monument, which he said should show him holding a gun.\n\n[The ICC was established in 2002 and has 125 member countries](https://apnews.com/article/duterte-icc-philippines-arrest-court-hague-6d5fc9ee32c14126c6867be1108a2e80) as of 2025. Several prominent countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are not members. The Philippines withdrew in 2019 under Duterte's presidency. According to the ICC, its jurisdiction [\"extends to offenses that occurred after July 1, 2002, that were committed either in a state that has ratified the agreement or by a national of such a state.\"](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court)\n\nThe ICC does not have its own police force, but it has a detention facility in The Hague. The ICC has issued 60 arrest warrants in its history, including against high-profile figures like Russian president Vladimir Putin, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir. The Court has convicted 11 people." }, { "id": 36002, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "slug": "will-sp-500-recover-half-its-drop-by-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-12T14:27:39.902918Z", "published_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:49.330307Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:57.528818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:49.330305Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35433, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-12T14:27:39.903344Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T21:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T21:10:18.074077Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between the launch of this question and the end of trading on April 7, 2025 (inclusive), the S\\&P 500 closes at 5,832.84 or higher, the midpoint between its highest close (6,144.15) and recent dip (5,521.52), according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).", "fine_print": "A resolution of **Yes** requires the \"Close\" price displayed by Yahoo Finance to be ≥5,832.84. Intraday prices will not count. ", "post_id": 36002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743410188.680094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743410188.680094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.1719359030585364 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8276258305176769, 0.05561097582467904, 0.5038611638190824, 0.0, 1.2476512490062548, 1.1904441443650349, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0279014722760618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29433923948569785, 0.6110402836301606, 0.23730785012660063, 0.5940841757041311, 0.7939986184958646, 0.3645464367124023, 2.948680232002294, 0.0, 0.9484065880911751, 0.10189241930013437, 0.07265466937739974, 0.8190654077817793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06655370815568037, 0.0, 1.8612293122491628, 0.0, 0.0, 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"relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.082995867967656, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 542, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow." }, { "id": 36000, "title": "Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "short_title": "Will the US import oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "url_title": "Will the US import oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "slug": "will-the-us-import-oil-from-russia-between-2025-and-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-12T05:36:32.245686Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:56:28.953494Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:02.154218Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-12T21:56:28.953491Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35431, "title": "Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "created_at": "2025-03-12T05:36:32.246061Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T21:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T21:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-19T21:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-04-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US imports of crude oil from Russia began with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and reached 269 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in 2010, representing about 3% of imports. Imports fell to zero in the wake of sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine ([source](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_2\\&f=A)):\n\n\n\nMeanwhile the US continued to import large volumes of crude oil from other countries. [The US imported about 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, of which 62% came from Canada](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCUS_A2_NUS_EPC0_IM0_MBBLPD_A.htm):\n\n\n\nIf the US government removes sanctions on Russian energy products, it is possible that US imports of Russian crude oil will resume.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if the United States imports any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive). Resolution source is US Energy Information Administration (EIA): [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM\\_NUS-NRS\\_1\\&f=A](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_1\\&f=A)\n\nResolution is **No** if no such imports are reported for the interval.\n\nData for 2030 are expected to be published by March 2031.", "fine_print": "Definitions of \"Russia\" and \"crude oil\" follow EIA. For example, if [Russia and Belarus fully merge and the combination is renamed](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/an-ever-closer-union/2-historical-and-legal-context/), resolution of this question will treat the new entity as a successor to Russia if and only if EIA so treats it (e.g., by continuing the Russia time series under the new entity's name). If EIA ends its Russia time series and creates a new one for the new entity, then the question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf EIA stops publishing data on US imports of Russian for some other reason, Metaculus admins will identify another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If they determine none is available, then the question will be **annulled**.\n\nResolution is based on figures as reported by resolution source. For example, if EIA rounds a figure (such as by rounding a very small number down to zero), then resolution will be based on rounded figure.", "post_id": 36000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750764929.57851, "end_time": 1761299999.999, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750764929.57851, "end_time": 1761299999.999, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6343214195337702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5726661189940503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US imports of crude oil from Russia began with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and reached 269 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in 2010, representing about 3% of imports. Imports fell to zero in the wake of sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine ([source](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_2\\&f=A)):\n\n\n\nMeanwhile the US continued to import large volumes of crude oil from other countries. [The US imported about 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, of which 62% came from Canada](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCUS_A2_NUS_EPC0_IM0_MBBLPD_A.htm):\n\n\n\nIf the US government removes sanctions on Russian energy products, it is possible that US imports of Russian crude oil will resume." }, { "id": 35997, "title": "Will a large language model (LLM) solve ≥ 40% of FrontierMath questions before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will an LLM solve ≥ 40% of FrontierMath questions?", "url_title": "Will an LLM solve ≥ 40% of FrontierMath questions?", "slug": "will-an-llm-solve-40-of-frontiermath-questions", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T20:47:50.771441Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:09:39.949970Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:17.258776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:09:39.949966Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35429, "title": "Will a large language model (LLM) solve ≥ 40% of FrontierMath questions before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T20:47:50.771812Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:19:23.401854Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**FrontierMath** is a benchmark designed to evaluate **LLM mathematical reasoning** on **advanced math topics**, including **competition-level problem-solving and formal proofs**.\n\nInformation on the benchmark can be found below:\n\n[https://epoch.ai/frontiermath](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath)\n\n[https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark)\n\nMost recently, **OpenAI** announced that o3-mini-high + a python tool had achieved 3**2%** on the benchmark: \n\n[https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/](https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if, by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, a **AI lab announces that one of their LLMs** (which can include a LLM using tools like Python) successfully solves at least **40% of the questions** on EpochAI's **FrontierMath** benchmark. The whole system must submit only one answer to each question. This rules out things like pass@n (mark correct if any of the n trials were correct) but consensus@n is allowed (most likely answer on n trials) since this can be implemented by only submitting one answer.\n\n#### **Evaluation Criteria:**\n\n* The **primary resolution source** will be any announcement by a **major and credible** AI lab including but not limited to **OpenAI, DeepMind, Meta, Anthropic**, **X, and Deepseek.**\n* If multiple reports exist, the **most credible and widely accepted evaluation** (e.g., from **OpenAI, DeepMind, Meta, Anthropic, or academic researchers**) will be used.\n* If an LLM **achieves ≥40% accuracy** on **the set** **of FrontierMath problems** before the deadline, the question will resolve **\"Yes.\"**\n* If no LLM achieves this threshold by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35997, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069648.791697, "end_time": null, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**FrontierMath** is a benchmark designed to evaluate **LLM mathematical reasoning** on **advanced math topics**, including **competition-level problem-solving and formal proofs**.\n\nInformation on the benchmark can be found below:\n\n[https://epoch.ai/frontiermath](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath)\n\n[https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark)\n\nMost recently, **OpenAI** announced that o3-mini-high + a python tool had achieved 3**2%** on the benchmark: \n\n[https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/](https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/)" }, { "id": 35996, "title": "By May 15, 2025, will there be a frontier reasoning model that is publicly and unambiguously known to conduct much of its reasoning via a medium other than natural language?", "short_title": "AI model conducting reasoning via non-natural language?", "url_title": "AI model conducting reasoning via non-natural language?", "slug": "ai-model-conducting-reasoning-via-non-natural-language", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T20:46:34.540095Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:31.850782Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:44.908080Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:31.850780Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35428, "title": "By May 15, 2025, will there be a frontier reasoning model that is publicly and unambiguously known to conduct much of its reasoning via a medium other than natural language?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T20:46:34.540464Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:12:41.819737Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Frontier AI models such as **GPT-4, Gemini, Claude, and DeepSeek’s models** rely heavily on **natural language chains of thought** for reasoning. However, researchers have started exploring **alternative reasoning paradigms**, including:\n\n* **Vector-based thought processes** that resemble **latent space navigation** rather than text-based step-by-step reasoning. See [https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut](https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut)\n* **Linguistic drift phenomena** where a model develops an **internal \"language\" unrecognizable to humans.**\n\n🔗 [Chain-of-Thought Monitoring (OpenAI)](https://openai.com/index/chain-of-thought-monitoring/) argues that it's important for humans to be able to oversee AI's chain of thought, however it might be more performant for models to reason in a language that humans can't understand.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if, by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, there is **public and unambiguous evidence** that a **frontier AI reasoning model** from any of the following labs:\n\n* **XAI**\n* **Meta**\n* **Deepseek**\n* **Anthropic**\n* **DeepMind**\n* **OpenAI**\n\nis conducting **much of its reasoning** through a medium that is **not natural language**. This could include, but is not limited to:\n\n1. **Neuralese** – The model uses an **internal vector-space representation** for thinking, which is significantly different from human-readable natural language.\n2. **Extreme Linguistic Drift** – The model's reasoning chains use **tokens that resemble words but are largely meaningless to humans** and follow a non-natural language structure.\n\n#### **Evidence Requirements for \"Yes\" Resolution**\n\nIt must be a **frontier model**. This means that the company markets the model as being better than their previous offerings. This is in contrast to a research output like [https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut](https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut).\n\nAt least one of the following must be **publicly confirmed** by **the model's developer** or through **credible AI research publications**:\n\n* **A paper, official blog post, or technical report** from one of the listed AI labs explicitly states that the model **relies on non-natural language reasoning.**\n* **Open-source model weights or logs** show clear evidence of reasoning in a **vector space or another non-linguistic medium.**\n* **Public statements from senior researchers at these organizations** (e.g., interviews, conference talks) explicitly confirm the model’s reasoning mechanism as **not primarily based on natural language.**\n\n#### **Resolution Conditions for \"No\"**\n\nThis question will resolve **\"No\"** if, by May 15, 2025:\n\n* No public evidence confirms that a **frontier reasoning model** conducts reasoning outside natural language.\n* Research suggests AI still predominantly uses **natural language chains of thought** with no significant shift toward **neuralese or extreme linguistic drift.**\n* Speculative reports or theoretical papers exist but lack concrete **public** evidence of implementation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35996, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069437.365248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.351 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069437.365248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.351 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2326821804171417 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9878375834097555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.946657362580346, "peer_score": 2.0311308642493873, "coverage": 0.9498160324052528, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9498160324052528, "spot_peer_score": 4.162874261718949, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 60.946657362580346, "peer_archived_score": 2.0311308642493873, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.162874261718949, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Frontier AI models such as **GPT-4, Gemini, Claude, and DeepSeek’s models** rely heavily on **natural language chains of thought** for reasoning. However, researchers have started exploring **alternative reasoning paradigms**, including:\n\n* **Vector-based thought processes** that resemble **latent space navigation** rather than text-based step-by-step reasoning. See [https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut](https://github.com/facebookresearch/coconut)\n* **Linguistic drift phenomena** where a model develops an **internal \"language\" unrecognizable to humans.**\n\n🔗 [Chain-of-Thought Monitoring (OpenAI)](https://openai.com/index/chain-of-thought-monitoring/) argues that it's important for humans to be able to oversee AI's chain of thought, however it might be more performant for models to reason in a language that humans can't understand." }, { "id": 35991, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "U.S lifting cap on Russian oil?", "url_title": "U.S lifting cap on Russian oil?", "slug": "us-lifting-cap-on-russian-oil", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "Russell-viper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.992781Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514519Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T18:55:40.402352Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514517Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35424, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.993113Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-21T01:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-21T01:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T18:55:40.366915Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control's current [price cap](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/27/2022-28153/russian-harmful-foreign-activities-sanctions-regulations-determination) of \\$60 per barrel on crude oil from the Russian Federation is lifted or eliminated before July 1, 2025. If it remains at \\$60 (or lower) on that date, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35991, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749569111.83019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749569111.83019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06278871861957921 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.3178790733308183, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740005697527565, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.42401196690263, "peer_score": 4.000611572075925, "coverage": 0.9993471405553545, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993471405553545, "spot_peer_score": 13.417532836694418, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 71.42401196690263, "peer_archived_score": 4.000611572075925, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.417532836694418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him." }, { "id": 35987, "title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president of South Korea by April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president?", "url_title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president?", "slug": "will-choi-sang-mok-remain-the-acting-president", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:33:34.942447Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:08.733317Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:44.274613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:16:08.733315Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35418, "title": "Will Choi Sang-mok remain the acting president of South Korea by April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:33:34.942855Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-03T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:19:21.885845Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of March 10, 2025, Choi Sang-mok serves as the acting president of South Korea, following a series of political upheavals:\n\n* **December 14, 2024:** President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and suspended from office due to allegations related to a brief imposition of martial law.\n* **December 14–27, 2024:** Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assumed the role of acting president but was subsequently impeached on December 27, 2024. \n* **December 27, 2024–Present:** Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok became the acting president following Han's impeachment. \n\nThe Constitutional Court of South Korea is currently deliberating on President Yoon's impeachment. The court has up to 180 days from the impeachment date (i.e., until June 12, 2025) to reach a decision. If the court upholds the impeachment, a presidential election must be held within 60 days to elect a new president.", "resolution_criteria": "### **Resolution Criteria**\n\nThis question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **Choi Sang-mok** continues to serve as the **acting president of South Korea** on **April 2, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**. Conversely, it will resolve **\"No\"** if, by that date and time:\n\n1. **President Yoon Suk Yeol** is **reinstated** following his impeachment trial, resuming presidential duties.\n2. **A new president** is **elected and inaugurated**, thereby ending Choi Sang-mok's acting presidency.\n3. **Another individual** assumes the role of **acting president**, replacing Choi Sang-mok.\n\nOutcome verified by at least two reputable new sources: AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, BBC etc. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35987, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069658.815505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069658.815505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7750963256312701 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0549745380698368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.27467474026865935, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.2396931538549426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4329957832828009 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -128.9862148656403, "peer_score": 22.031296746304864, "coverage": 0.9548109486147208, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9548109486147208, "spot_peer_score": 72.77193360648465, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873626, "baseline_archived_score": -128.9862148656403, "peer_archived_score": 22.031296746304864, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 72.77193360648465, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873626 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of March 10, 2025, Choi Sang-mok serves as the acting president of South Korea, following a series of political upheavals:\n\n* **December 14, 2024:** President Yoon Suk Yeol was impeached and suspended from office due to allegations related to a brief imposition of martial law.\n* **December 14–27, 2024:** Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assumed the role of acting president but was subsequently impeached on December 27, 2024. \n* **December 27, 2024–Present:** Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok became the acting president following Han's impeachment. \n\nThe Constitutional Court of South Korea is currently deliberating on President Yoon's impeachment. The court has up to 180 days from the impeachment date (i.e., until June 12, 2025) to reach a decision. If the court upholds the impeachment, a presidential election must be held within 60 days to elect a new president." }, { "id": 35986, "title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end?", "url_title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end?", "slug": "will-the-russia-ukraine-war-end", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:30:06.842179Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:51.573696Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:42.197638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:51.573694Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35417, "title": "Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:30:06.842519Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:43.560376Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The **Russia-Ukraine war** began with **Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022** and remains an ongoing conflict. Despite Ukrainian counteroffensives and continued Western military aid, **frontlines have largely stabilized** with heavy fighting in **Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia**. President Trump has signaled intentions to expedite an end to the war. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **a clear and verifiable end to the Russia-Ukraine war** is established **before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET** through one or more of the following:\n\n#### **Primary Resolution Conditions (Any One of These Would Resolve \"Yes\")**\n\n1. **A Formal Peace Treaty or Ceasefire Agreement:**\n * A **legally binding agreement** is signed between the governments of **Russia and Ukraine** that officially **ends the war** or **establishes a permanent ceasefire.**\n * The agreement must be **publicly confirmed** by at least **two major independent sources**, such as:\n * **The United Nations (UN)**\n * **The U.S. State Department or another major government entity**\n * **The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)**\n * **Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or another major news agency**\n2. **An Unambiguous, Lasting End to Major Combat Operations:**\n * If **both** of the following are true for at least **one full month (30 days)** before May 15, 2025:\n * No **major military offensives** or significant fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces.\n * No **active territorial disputes or claims of war by either government.**\n * This must be **confirmed by multiple independent sources** (e.g., **BBC, Reuters, AP, NYT, The Guardian**).\n * A short-term lull or pause in fighting **does not** count—there must be **clear indications of a lasting cessation of hostilities.**\n3. **A Major Political Resolution Recognized by Both Governments:**\n * If **Ukraine and Russia both declare publicly that the war has ended** and **cease further military actions**, even without a formal treaty.\n * This declaration must be **officially stated** by **both** the **Russian** and **Ukrainian** governments **and acknowledged by at least two reputable sources.**\n\n### **Primary Sources for Resolution:**\n\n* **International & Governmental Sources**\n * [United Nations](https://www.un.org/)\n * [Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)](https://www.osce.org/)\n * **Official statements from the governments of Ukraine & Russia**\n* **Major News Agencies**\n * [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/)\n * [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/)\n * [Associated Press (AP)](https://apnews.com/)\n * [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/)\n\nIf conflicting reports exist, a **majority consensus from primary sources** will determine resolution.", "fine_print": "* **Ongoing Negotiations:** If peace talks are in progress but have not resulted in a formal treaty, the question will **still resolve as \"No.\"**\n* **Frozen Conflict:** If large-scale fighting stops but both sides maintain hostile relations (e.g., similar to Korea's situation since 1953), the war will be considered **not officially ended**, and the question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* **Regime Change or Military Collapse:** If the war effectively ends due to **political upheaval, a Russian withdrawal, or Ukrainian surrender**, but no official agreement is signed, the question will **resolve based on the de facto situation as reported by major sources.**", "post_id": 35986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069106.91146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069106.91146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13045751169384087 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.032308049244041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3490738270927551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The **Russia-Ukraine war** began with **Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022** and remains an ongoing conflict. Despite Ukrainian counteroffensives and continued Western military aid, **frontlines have largely stabilized** with heavy fighting in **Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia**. President Trump has signaled intentions to expedite an end to the war. " }, { "id": 35983, "title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live (SNL) by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live?", "url_title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live?", "slug": "will-kieran-culkin-host-saturday-night-live", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:18:26.439304Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:03.324578Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:33.851147Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:15:03.324575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35414, "title": "Will Kieran Culkin host Saturday Night Live (SNL) by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:18:26.439636Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:13:30.111399Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Kieran Culkin* is an Emmy-winning actor known for his role as **Roman Roy** in *Succession*. He previously hosted *SNL* on **November 6, 2021** and received positive reviews.\n\n**Factors that may influence his selection as host:**\n\n* **SNL’s Season 50 Milestone** – The show may bring back past popular hosts.\n* **Upcoming Film & TV Projects** – If Culkin has a major project in 2024-2025, he could be invited for promotional purposes.\n* **SNL’s Guest Rotation** – SNL tends to favor returning hosts and actors with recent cultural relevance.\n\nHistorically, SNL **announces hosts 1-4 weeks in advance**, so forecasters should monitor announcements and entertainment news sources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if **Kieran Culkin** is officially listed as a host of *Saturday Night Live (SNL)* for any episode aired between now and **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**.\n\n* The primary resolution source will be the **official SNL host list** published on:\n 🔗 [NBC Insider: SNL Hosts](http://nbc.com/nbc-insider/everyone-hosting-snl-season-50)\n* The **episode must have aired before the resolution deadline.**\n* If Kieran Culkin appears on SNL in **any other capacity (e.g., cameo, guest appearance, musical performance, pre-taped sketch, or monologue guest)** but **not as the official host**, the question will **not** resolve \"Yes.\"\n* If there is a **canceled or unaired episode** where Culkin was scheduled to host, the question will **still resolve \"Yes\"** as long as NBC listed him as the host.\n* If no official confirmation is available by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069657.710332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069657.710332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2686071383045145 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1300722830890126, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.16121488199711, "peer_score": 7.161141679649201, "coverage": 0.9313400096363493, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9313400096363493, "spot_peer_score": 11.268348306185768, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.16121488199711, "peer_archived_score": 7.161141679649201, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.268348306185768, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Kieran Culkin* is an Emmy-winning actor known for his role as **Roman Roy** in *Succession*. He previously hosted *SNL* on **November 6, 2021** and received positive reviews.\n\n**Factors that may influence his selection as host:**\n\n* **SNL’s Season 50 Milestone** – The show may bring back past popular hosts.\n* **Upcoming Film & TV Projects** – If Culkin has a major project in 2024-2025, he could be invited for promotional purposes.\n* **SNL’s Guest Rotation** – SNL tends to favor returning hosts and actors with recent cultural relevance.\n\nHistorically, SNL **announces hosts 1-4 weeks in advance**, so forecasters should monitor announcements and entertainment news sources." }, { "id": 35982, "title": "Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up?", "url_title": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up?", "slug": "kylie-jenner-and-timothee-chalamet-will-break-up", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:16:42.945942Z", "published_at": "2025-03-15T03:14:39.425255Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:51.382030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-15T03:14:39.425252Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 35413, "title": "Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet will break up by May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-11T00:16:42.946601Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:08:09.394940Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have been romantically linked since **early 2023**, with public appearances and media coverage fueling speculation about their relationship status. \n\n**Factors that could influence a breakup before May 15, 2025:**\n\n* **Media & Public Scrutiny** – Constant attention may strain the relationship.\n* **Busy Careers & Schedules** – Both have demanding projects in 2025.\n* **Relationship History & Duration** – Short-lived high-profile relationships are common.\n* **Personal Life Events** – Family, social, or external pressures may play a role.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **\"Yes\"** if, by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, a **clear and confirmed breakup** between Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet is publicly announced through one of the following:\n\n1. **An official public statement from Kylie Jenner or Timothée Chalamet** (via their verified social media, an interview, or press release), OR\n2. **An unequivocal breakup confirmation** from at least **two independent media outlets**, specifically:\n * 🔗 [TMZ](https://www.tmz.com/)\n * 🔗 [Variety](https://variety.com/)\n * 🔗 [Rolling Stone](https://www.rollingstone.com/)\n\n#### **Clarifications & Special Cases:**\n\n* If **TMZ, Variety, and Rolling Stone** all independently confirm the breakup, that will be sufficient for resolution.\n* If **only one** of these sources reports a breakup but other **credible media outlets (e.g., People, The Hollywood Reporter, E! News)** corroborate it, the question may still resolve \"Yes.\"\n* If reports emerge about a **potential breakup, rumors, or speculation** but there is no **definitive confirmation**, the question will **not** resolve as \"Yes.\"\n* If there are **conflicting reports**, the breakup will only be considered confirmed if a **majority of primary sources** agree on the status.\n* If no confirmed breakup is reported by **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**, this question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* If Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet are no longer publicly known to be dating at that time, but no breakup confirmation exists, the question will still resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069507.616108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069507.616108, "end_time": null, 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0.9411414190795686, "spot_peer_score": -6.668597053559466, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "baseline_archived_score": 72.97692653828136, "peer_archived_score": 5.5398355343092645, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.668597053559466, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have been romantically linked since **early 2023**, with public appearances and media coverage fueling speculation about their relationship status. \n\n**Factors that could influence a breakup before May 15, 2025:**\n\n* **Media & Public Scrutiny** – Constant attention may strain the relationship.\n* **Busy Careers & Schedules** – Both have demanding projects in 2025.\n* **Relationship History & Duration** – Short-lived high-profile relationships are common.\n* **Personal Life Events** – Family, social, or external pressures may play a role." }, { "id": 35975, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "short_title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4?", "slug": "will-anthropic-release-claude-4", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955594Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959493Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:05.279114Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959491Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35406, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955927Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T00:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-16T00:07:08.362686Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **\"Yes\"** if Anthropic publicly releases a model explicitly named **Claude 4** before **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**.\n\n* A **public release** is defined as Claude 4 being made available for commercial, enterprise, or general public use through Anthropic’s platform, an API, or any widely accessible service (e.g., via Anthropic’s website, Amazon Bedrock, or an official partner).\n* Any variation on **Claude 4** such as **Claude 4 - Sonnet, Claude 4 - Preview, or Claude 4.x** is sufficient to resolve **Yes.\"**\n* If Anthropic announces or previews Claude 4 but does not release it for public or commercial use before the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* If Anthropic releases an intermediate Claude model (e.g., \"Claude 3.5\" or \"Claude 3 Ultra\") but does not label it as **Claude 4**, this will not be sufficient for a **\"Yes\"** resolution.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding the official name or release status, authoritative sources such as **Anthropic’s blog, press releases, official documentation, or statements from executives** will be used for verification.\n\nIf no clear confirmation is available by the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742069660.83968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742069660.83968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.314519691099857 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7017282302155228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.630006126295486, "peer_score": 24.989564047806383, "coverage": 0.987991846755699, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.987991846755699, "spot_peer_score": 20.83580255855846, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 14.630006126295486, "peer_archived_score": 24.989564047806383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.83580255855846, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release." }, { "id": 35974, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention before 2029?", "short_title": "Will UK join PEM convention before 2029?", "url_title": "Will UK join PEM convention before 2029?", "slug": "will-uk-join-pem-convention-before-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.955649Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T11:06:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:20.194488Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T11:09:17.246260Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:06:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35405, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.956036Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:06:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T11:06:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-join-the-PanEuroMediterranean-Convention)\n\n***\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM.\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial.\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the United Kingdom has officially joined the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM Convention). This will be considered fulfilled if the UK is listed as a contracting party in official EU or UK government documents, or if credible sources confirm that the UK has formally acceded to the convention through a signed agreement.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the UK has not joined the PEM Convention, before January 1, 2029. This includes scenarios where negotiations are ongoing but no formal accession has been completed, or if the UK explicitly rejects or withdraws from the process.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35974, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748322785.513507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748322785.513507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.4883774043493322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8946233336145679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-join-the-PanEuroMediterranean-Convention)\n\n***\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM.\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial.\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift." }, { "id": 35973, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "short_title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia relation normalized by 2029?", "url_title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia relation normalized by 2029?", "slug": "israel-and-saudi-arabia-relation-normalized-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209007Z", "published_at": "2025-03-20T06:13:25.368092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:46.291083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-20T06:13:25.368090Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-23T06:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35404, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209606Z", "open_time": "2025-03-23T06:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-27T06:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-27T06:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-and-Saudi-Arabia-normalize-relations-during-Donald-Trumps-second-presidency)\n\n***\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations.\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement.\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Israel and Saudi Arabia sign a diplomatic normalization agreement before January 20, 2029. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, diplomatic normalization requires the exchange of embassies and ambassadors. The question resolves upon the announcement of the signed agreement; it does not require the exchange to occur.", "post_id": 35973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751332022.634034, "end_time": 1762401509.99, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751332022.634034, "end_time": 1762401509.99, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.31930332360096636 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2078355300424066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.2294348988188281, 0.5492768913479766, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4514354862595773, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-and-Saudi-Arabia-normalize-relations-during-Donald-Trumps-second-presidency)\n\n***\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations.\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement.\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. " }, { "id": 35971, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will trump pay judgement before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Will trump pay judgement before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "will-trump-pay-judgement-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242199Z", "published_at": "2025-03-28T11:14:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-13T23:29:17.898321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-28T11:15:59.046898Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:14:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T05:41:17.146561Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35402, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242841Z", "open_time": "2025-03-29T11:14:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-02T11:14:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Donald-Trump-pay-his-settlement-to-E-Jean-Carroll)\n\n***\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/).\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, Donald Trump has paid the full amount of the settlement awarded to E. Jean Carroll by a court judgment. Payment will be considered made if credible sources confirm that Trump has either directly paid Carroll or that the funds have been collected through legal means, such as asset seizures or garnishments.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if Trump has not fully paid the settlement, before January 20, 2029. This includes scenarios where he has made partial payments but still owes a remaining balance, if the judgment is overturned or vacated on appeal, or if the settlement is otherwise rendered legally unenforceable.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752449347.10248, "end_time": 1755536686.92707, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752449347.10248, "end_time": 1755536686.92707, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19422890657770908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Donald-Trump-pay-his-settlement-to-E-Jean-Carroll)\n\n***\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/).\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments." } ] }
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