Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=480
{ "count": 6277, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=460", "results": [ { "id": 39289, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ahmed-al-sharaa-lose-power-as-president-of-syria-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.048800Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:01:49.253407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:19.236160Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 38636, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.049262Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be the [President of Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria) before December 1, 2025, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128098.969082, "end_time": 1762400587.041, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128098.969082, "end_time": 1762400587.041, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.20516466750674892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.7161608149020564, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards don’t come cheaply." }, { "id": 39288, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-russian-elites-die-under-suspicious-circumstances-before-dec-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.763626Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:01:51.406848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:48.695786Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictator’s Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025 by Professor Bailey Sellers. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\r\n\r\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\r\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 280324, "username": "baileysellers8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 38635, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.764057Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats don’t need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positions—those involving force and money—and killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, any Russian elite dies under suspicious circumstances, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. \n\n\"Elite\" is defined as any current or former member of the Russian [cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Russia#Current_Cabinet); a current or former member of the [State Duma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Duma) or [Federation Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_Council_of_Russia); an oligarch, which is defined as any Russian with a net worth of at least \\$100 million or anyone who is currently CEO, chairman, controlling shareholder, or founder of a public company; any current member of the Russian military with a rank of [lieutenant-general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation#Officers), [vitse-admiral, ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy#Commissioned_officer_ranks)or higher; or any current or former head of a Russian[ federal subject](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia). \n\n\"Suspicious circumstances\" is defined as ICD-10 Version:2019 [external causes of morbidity and mortality](https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/XX) V01-X59 Accidents, X60-X84 Intentional self-harm, X85-Y09 Assault, and Y10-Y34 Event of undetermined intent.\n\nIf no such reported deaths occur after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "An example that would have counted is Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had a reported net worth greater than \\$100 million and [died in a plane crash](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/who-killed-yevgeny-prigozhin). Another who would have counted is Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, who \"[shot himself](https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-former-transport-minister-starovoit-has-shot-himself-izvestiya-cites-2025-07-07/)\" on July 7, 2025. An example that would not have counted for purposes of this question is Dmitri Osipov, chairman of [Urakali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uralkali) who died suddenly on August 12, 2025, but [reportedly](https://news.rambler.ru/incidents/55128524-v-vozraste-59-let-ot-raka-umer-byvshiy-gendirektor-uralkaliya-dmitriy-osipov/) of cancer. Nor would Mikhail Kenin, founder of Samolet, who [died ](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/property-mogul-links-putin-regime-35711683)suddenly on August 11, 2025, though with no cause of death publicly reported at the time of this question other than \"acute heart failure.\"", "post_id": 39288, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762128100.664551, "end_time": 1762400585.211, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762128100.664551, "end_time": 1762400585.211, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6823386710845792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7378623023174993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats don’t need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positions—those involving force and money—and killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye" }, { "id": 39283, "title": "Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese Phones ≥50% in Africa 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese Phones ≥50% in Africa 2030?", "slug": "chinese-phones-50-in-africa-2030", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:14:19.629776Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T19:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T17:00:37.674213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-05T19:08:24.284325Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38632, "title": "Will the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa be at least 50% based on the 12‑month average for January–December 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:14:19.630175Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T19:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T19:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chinese handset makers have reshaped Africa’s smartphone market through affordability, localization, and distribution strength.\r\n\r\n* Current Standing (2024): Chinese brands hold an estimated 60–70% share, led by Transsion Holdings (TECNO, Infinix, Itel with \\~40–45%), plus Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Realme. ([<u>StatCounter</u>](https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/africa), [<u>Counterpoint</u>](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/)).\r\n* Drivers of dominance:\r\n * Custom features (dual‑SIM, long battery, cameras tuned to darker skin tones).\r\n * Aggressive offline distribution reaching rural areas.\r\n * Partnerships with mobile money networks and installment financing.\r\n * Favorable PRC–Africa government relations under the Belt and Road Initiative.\r\n\r\nChallenges:\r\n\r\n* Competition: Samsung’s renewed push into Africa; Apple’s growing aspirational demand at the high‑end.\r\n* Local brands: e.g. Mara Phones in Rwanda, plus small regional entrants.\r\n* Geopolitics: Western efforts to reduce African reliance on Chinese tech.\r\n* Macroeconomics: Volatile foreign exchange and import dependency.\r\n\r\nScenarios:\r\n\r\n1. Sustained dominance (≥50%) — Chinese firms leverage price and local presence to maintain majority share.\r\n2. Fragmentation (\\<50%) — Samsung, Apple, and local brands erode dominance.\r\n3. Regulatory shift — African governments mandate local content or adopt Western preferences.\r\n\r\nImplications:\r\nThe outcome matters beyond sales. Smartphone vendors control platforms for digital payments, e‑commerce, and data ecosystems. If Chinese brands hold ≥50% in 2030, it cements Beijing-linked ecosystems as Africa’s mobile backbone during a decade of explosive digital growth (from \\~300M users today to >500M by 2030).", "resolution_criteria": "Note: This is not a Metaculus main feed question, does not count toward leaderboard scoring, and may be less strictly operationalized than main feed questions. It is here to supplement the project [<u>AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-geo/), curated by Yan X. Zhang, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at San José State University.\n\n***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the combined smartphone market share of Chinese brands in Africa is 50% or greater for the 2030 calendar year. The question will resolve as **No** if the market share is less than 50%. The resolution will be based on the 12-month average from January to December 2030, as reported by StatCounter's \"Mobile Vendor Market Share Africa\".\n\n**Primary Resolution Source:**\n\n* **Source:** [StatCounter Global Stats](https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/africa/2024)\n* **Metric:** \"Mobile Vendor Market Share Africa\" for January 2030 to December 2030.\n* **Calculation:** The sum of the market shares of the specified Chinese brands.\n\n**Backup Sources (in order):**\n\n1. [IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker](https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P8397)\n2. [Canalys Smartphone Market Pulse](https://canalys.com/)\n3. [Counterpoint Research](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/insights/global-smartphone-share/)\n\n**List of Chinese Brands to be Included:** The following brands will be considered \"Chinese\" for the purposes of this question. This list is intended to be comprehensive, and any questions about whether a brand should be included or excluded will be resolved at the discretion of the question author and Metaculus admins.\n\n* Transsion Holdings (and its brands: TECNO, Infinix, Itel)\n* Xiaomi\n* Oppo\n* Vivo\n* Realme\n* Huawei\n* ZTE\n* Lenovo (including Motorola)\n* OnePlus\n* Meizu\n\n**Fine Print & Ambiguity Resolution:**\n\n* If StatCounter data is unavailable or ceases to be updated, the resolution will be based on the first available backup source, in the order listed.\n* If a brand is acquired by a non-Chinese company before December 31, 2029, it will be excluded from the calculation.\n* If a new major Chinese brand emerges, it may be added to the list at the discretion of the question author.\n* The \"market share\" will be the \"vendor market share\" as defined by the resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39283, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761670826.750706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761670826.750706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.37 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chinese handset makers have reshaped Africa’s smartphone market through affordability, localization, and distribution strength.\r\n\r\n* Current Standing (2024): Chinese brands hold an estimated 60–70% share, led by Transsion Holdings (TECNO, Infinix, Itel with \\~40–45%), plus Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, and Realme. ([<u>StatCounter</u>](https://gs.statcounter.com/vendor-market-share/mobile/africa), [<u>Counterpoint</u>](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/)).\r\n* Drivers of dominance:\r\n * Custom features (dual‑SIM, long battery, cameras tuned to darker skin tones).\r\n * Aggressive offline distribution reaching rural areas.\r\n * Partnerships with mobile money networks and installment financing.\r\n * Favorable PRC–Africa government relations under the Belt and Road Initiative.\r\n\r\nChallenges:\r\n\r\n* Competition: Samsung’s renewed push into Africa; Apple’s growing aspirational demand at the high‑end.\r\n* Local brands: e.g. Mara Phones in Rwanda, plus small regional entrants.\r\n* Geopolitics: Western efforts to reduce African reliance on Chinese tech.\r\n* Macroeconomics: Volatile foreign exchange and import dependency.\r\n\r\nScenarios:\r\n\r\n1. Sustained dominance (≥50%) — Chinese firms leverage price and local presence to maintain majority share.\r\n2. Fragmentation (\\<50%) — Samsung, Apple, and local brands erode dominance.\r\n3. Regulatory shift — African governments mandate local content or adopt Western preferences.\r\n\r\nImplications:\r\nThe outcome matters beyond sales. Smartphone vendors control platforms for digital payments, e‑commerce, and data ecosystems. If Chinese brands hold ≥50% in 2030, it cements Beijing-linked ecosystems as Africa’s mobile backbone during a decade of explosive digital growth (from \\~300M users today to >500M by 2030)." }, { "id": 39282, "title": "By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?", "short_title": "New PRC Semiconductor Mineral Controls?", "url_title": "New PRC Semiconductor Mineral Controls?", "slug": "new-prc-semiconductor-mineral-controls", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:08:49.859828Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T19:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T01:10:27.454416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-05T19:17:13.598909Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38631, "title": "By Dec 31, 2030, will China impose new export controls (licenses/quotas/bans) on ≥1 additional semiconductor mineral (excluding gallium/germanium)?", "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:08:49.860263Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T19:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:25:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:25:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's control over critical minerals has emerged as a powerful tool in the technology competition with the United States. Following U.S. semiconductor export restrictions, China demonstrated its leverage by imposing export controls on gallium and germanium in July 2023 - two minerals essential for semiconductor manufacturing where China dominates global supply. The question of whether China will restrict additional semiconductor-relevant minerals represents a key uncertainty in the evolving technology trade war.\n\n**The Gallium and Germanium Precedent**\n\nIn July 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced export licensing requirements for gallium and germanium, citing national security. The impact was immediate:\n\n* China produces 94% of global gallium and 83% of germanium\n* Both minerals are critical for semiconductors, LEDs, and solar panels\n* Export licenses created uncertainty and potential supply disruptions\n* Prices spiked on global markets\n\nThis action demonstrated China's willingness to use its mineral dominance as economic leverage, setting a precedent for potential future restrictions.\n\n**China's Critical Mineral Dominance**\n\nChina's position in semiconductor-relevant minerals extends far beyond gallium and germanium:\n\n**Graphite**: 65% of global production\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing equipment\n* Critical for heat dissipation in electronics\n* December 2023: China already imposed export controls\n\n**Antimony**: 72% of global production\n\n* Used in semiconductor flame retardants\n* Critical for certain semiconductor compounds\n* Strategic military applications\n\n**Tungsten**: 82% of global production\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing tools\n* Used in interconnects and contacts\n* Critical for etching processes\n\n**Indium**: 57% of global production\n\n* Key component in indium tin oxide (ITO)\n* Essential for display technologies\n* Used in III-V semiconductors\n\n**Rare Earth Elements**: 60% of mining, 90% of processing\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing equipment\n* Critical for magnets in chip production tools\n* Multiple elements with semiconductor applications\n\n**High-Purity Silicon**: Growing market share\n\n* Feedstock for semiconductor wafers\n* China expanding polysilicon production capacity\n* Potential leverage over entire supply chain\n\n**Strategic Considerations**\n\nChina's decision to impose new controls will balance several factors:\n\n**Motivations for New Controls:**\n\n* Retaliation for Western semiconductor restrictions\n* Leverage in trade negotiations\n* Protection of domestic industries\n* Resource conservation\n* National security considerations\n\n**Constraints on Action:**\n\n* Risk of accelerating Western supply chain diversification\n* Potential WTO challenges\n* Impact on Chinese exporters\n* Diplomatic costs\n* Precedent for other countries\n\n**Likely Triggers for Action**\n\nNew controls become more probable if:\n\n* U.S./allied semiconductor restrictions significantly escalate\n* Taiwan tensions increase\n* Trade war intensifies\n* Domestic shortages emerge\n* Alternative suppliers remain limited\n\n**Industry Vulnerability**\n\nThe semiconductor industry's dependence on Chinese minerals varies:\n\n* Some minerals have no viable substitutes\n* Alternative sources often require years to develop\n* Processing capacity concentrated in China\n* Recycling insufficient to meet demand\n* Strategic stockpiles limited\n\n**Global Response Preparations**\n\nAnticipating potential controls, Western governments are:\n\n* Building strategic mineral stockpiles\n* Investing in alternative sources\n* Developing recycling capabilities\n* Forming mineral security partnerships\n* Accelerating mine development\n\nHowever, these efforts require years to decades to substantially reduce dependence on Chinese supplies.", "resolution_criteria": "Note: This is not a Metaculus main feed question, does not count toward leaderboard scoring, and may be less strictly operationalized than main feed questions. It is here to supplement the project [<u>AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-geo/), curated by Yan X. Zhang, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at San José State University.\n\n***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, between the question's start date and December 31, 2030, the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially announces new export controls on at least one mineral (or its compounds) that is materially used in semiconductor production, beyond the existing controls on gallium and germanium. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\n**Primary Resolution Sources:** Official announcements from the following PRC government bodies will be used for resolution:\n\n* **Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China (MOFCOM):** Announcements and regulations regarding export controls, typically published in the \"Policies\" or \"Announcements\" section of their website. ([http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/](http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/))\n* **General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC):** Official notices and decrees related to customs and export administration. ([http://www.customs.gov.cn/](http://www.customs.gov.cn/))\n* Official state-run media outlets such as **Xinhua News Agency** ([http://www.xinhuanet.com/](http://www.xinhuanet.com/)) that report on official government proclamations.\n\n**List of Semiconductor-Relevant Minerals:** For a mineral to be considered \"materially used in semiconductor production,\" it must be on a list of critical minerals for semiconductors, such as the one published by a major geological survey or semiconductor industry association. For the purposes of this question, the following (non-exhaustive) list of raw materials will be considered, based on information from sources like the U.S. Geological Survey and industry reports on semiconductor manufacturing. The question resolves \"Yes\" if controls are placed on any of these, or other minerals verifiably used in semiconductor production.\n\n* Silicon (in the form of high-purity silicon wafers)\n* Arsenic (used in gallium arsenide wafers)\n* Cobalt\n* Copper\n* Tungsten\n* Tantalum\n* Palladium\n* Scandium\n* Yttrium and other rare-earth elements (e.g., Neodymium, Lanthanum) used in lasers and specialty alloys for chipmaking.\n* Antimony\n\n**Fine Print & Ambiguity Resolution:**\n\n* **\"New export controls\"** are defined as any newly enacted licensing requirements, quotas, or outright prohibitions that are not already in place as of the question's start date.\n* This question is specifically about **raw or processed minerals and their direct compounds** (e.g., tungsten, cobalt sulfate), not about finished products that contain these minerals (like magnets or batteries).\n* The export controls must be officially announced and intended to be enforced. Rumors or proposed controls will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* This question excludes Gallium (Ga) and Germanium (Ge) and their related materials, as controls are already in place.\n* If there is ambiguity as to whether a mineral is \"materially used in semiconductor production,\" resolution will be determined based on credible public documentation from industry or government sources (e.g., USGS, SEMI).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761095417.0724, "end_time": 1792631416.969, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761095417.0724, "end_time": 1792631416.969, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7979953069969884 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's control over critical minerals has emerged as a powerful tool in the technology competition with the United States. Following U.S. semiconductor export restrictions, China demonstrated its leverage by imposing export controls on gallium and germanium in July 2023 - two minerals essential for semiconductor manufacturing where China dominates global supply. The question of whether China will restrict additional semiconductor-relevant minerals represents a key uncertainty in the evolving technology trade war.\n\n**The Gallium and Germanium Precedent**\n\nIn July 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced export licensing requirements for gallium and germanium, citing national security. The impact was immediate:\n\n* China produces 94% of global gallium and 83% of germanium\n* Both minerals are critical for semiconductors, LEDs, and solar panels\n* Export licenses created uncertainty and potential supply disruptions\n* Prices spiked on global markets\n\nThis action demonstrated China's willingness to use its mineral dominance as economic leverage, setting a precedent for potential future restrictions.\n\n**China's Critical Mineral Dominance**\n\nChina's position in semiconductor-relevant minerals extends far beyond gallium and germanium:\n\n**Graphite**: 65% of global production\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing equipment\n* Critical for heat dissipation in electronics\n* December 2023: China already imposed export controls\n\n**Antimony**: 72% of global production\n\n* Used in semiconductor flame retardants\n* Critical for certain semiconductor compounds\n* Strategic military applications\n\n**Tungsten**: 82% of global production\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing tools\n* Used in interconnects and contacts\n* Critical for etching processes\n\n**Indium**: 57% of global production\n\n* Key component in indium tin oxide (ITO)\n* Essential for display technologies\n* Used in III-V semiconductors\n\n**Rare Earth Elements**: 60% of mining, 90% of processing\n\n* Essential for semiconductor manufacturing equipment\n* Critical for magnets in chip production tools\n* Multiple elements with semiconductor applications\n\n**High-Purity Silicon**: Growing market share\n\n* Feedstock for semiconductor wafers\n* China expanding polysilicon production capacity\n* Potential leverage over entire supply chain\n\n**Strategic Considerations**\n\nChina's decision to impose new controls will balance several factors:\n\n**Motivations for New Controls:**\n\n* Retaliation for Western semiconductor restrictions\n* Leverage in trade negotiations\n* Protection of domestic industries\n* Resource conservation\n* National security considerations\n\n**Constraints on Action:**\n\n* Risk of accelerating Western supply chain diversification\n* Potential WTO challenges\n* Impact on Chinese exporters\n* Diplomatic costs\n* Precedent for other countries\n\n**Likely Triggers for Action**\n\nNew controls become more probable if:\n\n* U.S./allied semiconductor restrictions significantly escalate\n* Taiwan tensions increase\n* Trade war intensifies\n* Domestic shortages emerge\n* Alternative suppliers remain limited\n\n**Industry Vulnerability**\n\nThe semiconductor industry's dependence on Chinese minerals varies:\n\n* Some minerals have no viable substitutes\n* Alternative sources often require years to develop\n* Processing capacity concentrated in China\n* Recycling insufficient to meet demand\n* Strategic stockpiles limited\n\n**Global Response Preparations**\n\nAnticipating potential controls, Western governments are:\n\n* Building strategic mineral stockpiles\n* Investing in alternative sources\n* Developing recycling capabilities\n* Forming mineral security partnerships\n* Accelerating mine development\n\nHowever, these efforts require years to decades to substantially reduce dependence on Chinese supplies." }, { "id": 39281, "title": "Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?", "short_title": "RISC-V 30% Market Share by 2030?", "url_title": "RISC-V 30% Market Share by 2030?", "slug": "risc-v-30-market-share-by-2030", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:05:12.897994Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T19:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T02:13:59.662149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-05T19:24:16.127219Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38630, "title": "Will processors based on the RISC-V architecture account for at least 30% of global processor unit shipments in the calendar year 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-19T06:05:12.898581Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T19:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The RISC-V instruction set architecture (ISA) represents one of the most significant shifts in processor design philosophy in decades. As an open-standard, royalty-free architecture, RISC-V challenges the dominance of proprietary architectures like x86 and ARM. The question of whether RISC-V can capture 30% of global processor shipments by 2030 will determine if open-source hardware can fundamentally reshape the semiconductor industry, much as open-source software transformed computing in previous decades.\n\n**The RISC-V Revolution**\n\nRISC-V (pronounced \"risk-five\") emerged from UC Berkeley in 2010 as the fifth generation of RISC architecture research. Unlike proprietary ISAs that require licensing fees and restrict customization, RISC-V offers:\n\n* Complete openness: No licensing fees or royalties\n* Extensibility: Custom instructions for specific applications\n* Simplicity: Clean, modular design enabling efficient implementation\n* Ecosystem: Growing community of contributors and implementers\n\nThis open approach has attracted everyone from tech giants to startups, governments to academia, all seeking alternatives to the ARM-x86 duopoly.\n\n**Current Market Position**\n\nAccording to Omdia's 2024 research, RISC-V's trajectory shows explosive growth:\n\n* 2020: 0.7% market share\n* 2024: Approximately 10-12% (estimated)\n* 2030: Forecast of nearly 25% market share\n\nThis represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 50% between 2024 and 2030, with shipments expected to reach 17 billion processors in 2030 alone.\n\nThe 30% threshold in this question represents an even more aggressive adoption scenario - one where RISC-V not only meets but exceeds current industry forecasts.\n\n**Market Segments and Applications**\n\nRISC-V adoption varies significantly across processor categories:\n\n**Embedded and IoT (Strongest Adoption)**\n\n* Microcontrollers for IoT devices\n* Smart home appliances\n* Industrial sensors and actuators\n* Current market share: 15-20% and growing rapidly\n\n**Automotive (Fastest Growth)**\n\n* Engine control units (ECUs)\n* ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems)\n* In-vehicle infotainment\n* Expected 66% annual growth through 2030\n\n**Industrial Applications (Largest Volume)**\n\n* Factory automation\n* Robotics controllers\n* Edge computing devices\n* Expected to comprise 46% of RISC-V shipments by 2030\n\n**Data Center and AI (Emerging)**\n\n* AI accelerators and co-processors\n* Custom cloud processors (Google, Alibaba)\n* Storage controllers\n* Early stage but high potential\n\n**Consumer Electronics (Growing Interest)**\n\n* Wearables and earbuds\n* Smart TVs and set-top boxes\n* Mobile device controllers\n* Chinese smartphones and laptops\n\n**Desktop/Server CPUs (Limited but Notable)**\n\n* SiFive performance cores\n* Ventana high-performance designs\n* Chinese domestic processors\n* Still small fraction of market\n\n**Drivers of RISC-V Adoption**\n\nSeveral forces are accelerating RISC-V adoption:\n\n**1. Geopolitical Factors**\n\n* U.S.-China technology tensions driving indigenous alternatives\n* European sovereignty initiatives (European Processor Initiative)\n* India's national RISC-V program (Digital India RISC-V)\n* Reduced dependence on U.S./UK technology\n\n**2. Economic Advantages**\n\n* Zero licensing fees (ARM charges millions for architecture licenses)\n* No royalties per chip (ARM charges per-unit royalties)\n* Reduced development costs\n* Faster time-to-market for custom solutions\n\n**3. Technical Benefits**\n\n* Customization for AI workloads\n* Power efficiency through application-specific designs\n* Simpler verification and validation\n* Modern, clean architecture without legacy baggage\n\n**4. Ecosystem Momentum**\n\n* RISC-V International: 3,000+ members across 70 countries\n* Major corporate backers: Google, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung\n* Growing software support: Linux, Android, FreeRTOS\n* Educational adoption: Replacing ARM/MIPS in universities\n\n**5. AI and Edge Computing Boom**\n\n* Need for specialized AI accelerators\n* Edge AI requiring power-efficient custom processors\n* Domain-specific architectures (DSAs)\n* Flexible instruction extensions for new workloads\n\n**Barriers to 30% Market Share**\n\nDespite momentum, significant challenges remain:\n\n**Software Ecosystem Gap**\n\n* Limited application software support\n* Immature development tools\n* Fewer optimized libraries\n* Debugging and profiling tools lag proprietary alternatives\n\n**Performance Questions**\n\n* High-end RISC-V cores still trailing ARM/x86\n* Limited superscalar implementations\n* Memory subsystem maturity\n* Real-world benchmarks often favor established architectures\n\n**Fragmentation Risk**\n\n* Custom extensions could create incompatibility\n* Profile standardization still evolving\n* Risk of \"RISC-V variant\" proliferation\n* Ecosystem splitting into incompatible camps\n\n**Incumbent Resistance**\n\n* ARM's aggressive pricing and technology roadmap\n* Intel's x86 ecosystem lock-in\n* Massive R\\&D budgets of established players\n* Patent and IP concerns\n\n**Market Inertia**\n\n* Decades of ARM/x86 optimization\n* Risk-averse procurement in enterprises\n* Certification and qualification processes\n* Supply chain establishment\n\n**Key Players and Their Strategies**\n\n**China: All-In on RISC-V**\n\n* Alibaba's XuanTie processors in production\n* Loongson developing RISC-V cores\n* Government mandates for domestic processors\n* Could drive 5-10% of global share alone\n\n**Western Tech Giants: Selective Adoption**\n\n* Google: Custom AI and security processors\n* Meta: Infrastructure and AI accelerators\n* Intel: Offering RISC-V in foundry services\n* Qualcomm: Controller and wireless applications\n\n**Startups: Innovation Leaders**\n\n* SiFive: High-performance and AI cores\n* Ventana: Data center processors\n* Esperanto: AI accelerators\n* Codasip: Custom processor IP\n\n**Traditional Semiconductor Companies**\n\n* Renesas, NXP, Infineon: Automotive and industrial\n* Microchip: Embedded controllers\n* STMicroelectronics: IoT and automotive\n\n**The Path to 30%**\n\nFor RISC-V to reach 30% market share by 2030, several scenarios could unfold:\n\n**Scenario 1: China Mandate (Highest Probability)**\n\n* Chinese government mandates RISC-V for government/critical infrastructure\n* Domestic market alone could drive 10-15% global share\n* Supply chain effects ripple globally\n\n**Scenario 2: Killer Application**\n\n* Breakthrough in AI processors using RISC-V\n* Performance/efficiency advantage drives rapid adoption\n* Similar to how smartphones drove ARM adoption\n\n**Scenario 3: Ecosystem Tipping Point**\n\n* Software support reaches parity with ARM\n* Major cloud providers standardize on RISC-V\n* Developer momentum becomes self-sustaining\n\n**Scenario 4: Geopolitical Acceleration**\n\n* Technology sovereignty drives European/Indian adoption\n* U.S.-China decoupling accelerates alternative architectures\n* Multiple regions simultaneously push RISC-V\n\n**Market Measurement Considerations**\n\nThe 30% threshold depends critically on measurement methodology:\n\n**Unit Shipments vs. Revenue**\n\n* RISC-V dominates low-cost embedded (high volume, low price)\n* ARM/x86 dominate high-value processors\n* Unit share will exceed revenue share significantly\n\n**Processor Definition**\n\n* Includes all programmable processors (MCUs, MPUs, DSPs)\n* Excludes fixed-function ASICs\n* Includes embedded processors in SoCs\n\n**Geographic Coverage**\n\n* Must include China (largest growth market)\n* Captive production (for internal use) counts\n* Black/gray market difficult to measure\n\n**Industry Forecasts**\n\nCurrent analyst projections for RISC-V market share in 2030:\n\n* Omdia (May 2024): Nearly 25%\n* Semico Research: 28% (more bullish)\n* Counterpoint: 22-24% (more conservative)\n\nThe 30% threshold exceeds all mainstream forecasts, requiring either:\n\n* Faster adoption than currently anticipated\n* Methodology differences inflating share\n* Unforeseen catalytic events\n\n**Historical Precedents**\n\nPrevious architecture transitions provide context:\n\n* ARM in mobile: 0% to 95% in 15 years (2000-2015)\n* x86 in servers: 10% to 90% in 20 years (1990-2010)\n* MIPS in embedded: Peak of 20% market share\n\nRISC-V reaching 30% in essentially 10 years (2020-2030) would represent one of the fastest architecture transitions in semiconductor history.\n\n**Implications of 30% Market Share**\n\nIf RISC-V achieves 30% share, implications include:\n\n* Fundamental disruption of ARM's business model\n* Acceleration of open-source hardware movement\n* Shift in semiconductor industry power dynamics\n* New geographical distribution of processor design\n* Potential \\$50-100 billion market value shift\n\nThis question ultimately asks whether open-source principles can transform hardware as profoundly as they transformed software, with 2030 as the critical inflection point.", "resolution_criteria": "Note: This is not a Metaculus main feed question, does not count toward leaderboard scoring, and may be less strictly operationalized than main feed questions. It is here to supplement the project [<u>AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-geo/), curated by Yan X. Zhang, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at San José State University.\n\n***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if processors based on the RISC-V instruction set architecture (ISA) account for 30% or more of the total global processor unit shipments for the 2030 calendar year. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\n**Primary Resolution Source:**\n\n* **Source:** Omdia's \"RISC-V Global Market Report\" (or a successor report covering processor architecture market share). The resolution will be based on the full-year 2030 data, which is typically published in Q1 or Q2 of the following year. ([https://omdia.tech.informa.com/](https://omdia.tech.informa.com/))\n* **Metric:** The percentage of total processor unit shipments attributed to the RISC-V architecture.\n\n**Backup Resolution Sources:** Should the primary source be unavailable, or not provide the necessary data by December 31, 2031, the following sources will be consulted in the order listed:\n\n1. **Counterpoint Research:** Reports on CPU/processor market share. ([https://www.counterpointresearch.com/](https://www.counterpointresearch.com/))\n2. **Semico Research Group:** Reports on the semiconductor and IP core market, especially those focusing on RISC-V. ([https://semico.com/](https://semico.com/))\n3. **IDC (International Data Corporation):** Semiconductor market share reports, such as their \"Worldwide Semiconductor Technology and Supply Chain Intelligence.\" ([https://www.idc.com/](https://www.idc.com/))\n4. **Gartner:** Market share analysis on semiconductors and related technologies. ([https://www.gartner.com/](https://www.gartner.com/))", "fine_print": "* **\"Processors\"** are defined to include Central Processing Units (CPUs), Microcontrollers (MCUs), Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), and the processing cores within System-on-Chips (SoCs). The resolution will rely on the definition and categorization used by the primary (or backup) data source.\n* **\"Global processor unit shipments\"** refers to the total number of individual processor units shipped worldwide, as reported by the designated source.\n* If the primary source provides a range for the market share, the midpoint of that range will be used for resolution. If no specific figure for 2030 is available by the end of 2031, the first available backup source will be triggered.\n* For a processor to be \"based on the RISC-V architecture,\" it must implement the RISC-V instruction set. The classification provided by the resolution source will be considered definitive.", "post_id": 39281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The RISC-V instruction set architecture (ISA) represents one of the most significant shifts in processor design philosophy in decades. As an open-standard, royalty-free architecture, RISC-V challenges the dominance of proprietary architectures like x86 and ARM. The question of whether RISC-V can capture 30% of global processor shipments by 2030 will determine if open-source hardware can fundamentally reshape the semiconductor industry, much as open-source software transformed computing in previous decades.\n\n**The RISC-V Revolution**\n\nRISC-V (pronounced \"risk-five\") emerged from UC Berkeley in 2010 as the fifth generation of RISC architecture research. Unlike proprietary ISAs that require licensing fees and restrict customization, RISC-V offers:\n\n* Complete openness: No licensing fees or royalties\n* Extensibility: Custom instructions for specific applications\n* Simplicity: Clean, modular design enabling efficient implementation\n* Ecosystem: Growing community of contributors and implementers\n\nThis open approach has attracted everyone from tech giants to startups, governments to academia, all seeking alternatives to the ARM-x86 duopoly.\n\n**Current Market Position**\n\nAccording to Omdia's 2024 research, RISC-V's trajectory shows explosive growth:\n\n* 2020: 0.7% market share\n* 2024: Approximately 10-12% (estimated)\n* 2030: Forecast of nearly 25% market share\n\nThis represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 50% between 2024 and 2030, with shipments expected to reach 17 billion processors in 2030 alone.\n\nThe 30% threshold in this question represents an even more aggressive adoption scenario - one where RISC-V not only meets but exceeds current industry forecasts.\n\n**Market Segments and Applications**\n\nRISC-V adoption varies significantly across processor categories:\n\n**Embedded and IoT (Strongest Adoption)**\n\n* Microcontrollers for IoT devices\n* Smart home appliances\n* Industrial sensors and actuators\n* Current market share: 15-20% and growing rapidly\n\n**Automotive (Fastest Growth)**\n\n* Engine control units (ECUs)\n* ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems)\n* In-vehicle infotainment\n* Expected 66% annual growth through 2030\n\n**Industrial Applications (Largest Volume)**\n\n* Factory automation\n* Robotics controllers\n* Edge computing devices\n* Expected to comprise 46% of RISC-V shipments by 2030\n\n**Data Center and AI (Emerging)**\n\n* AI accelerators and co-processors\n* Custom cloud processors (Google, Alibaba)\n* Storage controllers\n* Early stage but high potential\n\n**Consumer Electronics (Growing Interest)**\n\n* Wearables and earbuds\n* Smart TVs and set-top boxes\n* Mobile device controllers\n* Chinese smartphones and laptops\n\n**Desktop/Server CPUs (Limited but Notable)**\n\n* SiFive performance cores\n* Ventana high-performance designs\n* Chinese domestic processors\n* Still small fraction of market\n\n**Drivers of RISC-V Adoption**\n\nSeveral forces are accelerating RISC-V adoption:\n\n**1. Geopolitical Factors**\n\n* U.S.-China technology tensions driving indigenous alternatives\n* European sovereignty initiatives (European Processor Initiative)\n* India's national RISC-V program (Digital India RISC-V)\n* Reduced dependence on U.S./UK technology\n\n**2. Economic Advantages**\n\n* Zero licensing fees (ARM charges millions for architecture licenses)\n* No royalties per chip (ARM charges per-unit royalties)\n* Reduced development costs\n* Faster time-to-market for custom solutions\n\n**3. Technical Benefits**\n\n* Customization for AI workloads\n* Power efficiency through application-specific designs\n* Simpler verification and validation\n* Modern, clean architecture without legacy baggage\n\n**4. Ecosystem Momentum**\n\n* RISC-V International: 3,000+ members across 70 countries\n* Major corporate backers: Google, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung\n* Growing software support: Linux, Android, FreeRTOS\n* Educational adoption: Replacing ARM/MIPS in universities\n\n**5. AI and Edge Computing Boom**\n\n* Need for specialized AI accelerators\n* Edge AI requiring power-efficient custom processors\n* Domain-specific architectures (DSAs)\n* Flexible instruction extensions for new workloads\n\n**Barriers to 30% Market Share**\n\nDespite momentum, significant challenges remain:\n\n**Software Ecosystem Gap**\n\n* Limited application software support\n* Immature development tools\n* Fewer optimized libraries\n* Debugging and profiling tools lag proprietary alternatives\n\n**Performance Questions**\n\n* High-end RISC-V cores still trailing ARM/x86\n* Limited superscalar implementations\n* Memory subsystem maturity\n* Real-world benchmarks often favor established architectures\n\n**Fragmentation Risk**\n\n* Custom extensions could create incompatibility\n* Profile standardization still evolving\n* Risk of \"RISC-V variant\" proliferation\n* Ecosystem splitting into incompatible camps\n\n**Incumbent Resistance**\n\n* ARM's aggressive pricing and technology roadmap\n* Intel's x86 ecosystem lock-in\n* Massive R\\&D budgets of established players\n* Patent and IP concerns\n\n**Market Inertia**\n\n* Decades of ARM/x86 optimization\n* Risk-averse procurement in enterprises\n* Certification and qualification processes\n* Supply chain establishment\n\n**Key Players and Their Strategies**\n\n**China: All-In on RISC-V**\n\n* Alibaba's XuanTie processors in production\n* Loongson developing RISC-V cores\n* Government mandates for domestic processors\n* Could drive 5-10% of global share alone\n\n**Western Tech Giants: Selective Adoption**\n\n* Google: Custom AI and security processors\n* Meta: Infrastructure and AI accelerators\n* Intel: Offering RISC-V in foundry services\n* Qualcomm: Controller and wireless applications\n\n**Startups: Innovation Leaders**\n\n* SiFive: High-performance and AI cores\n* Ventana: Data center processors\n* Esperanto: AI accelerators\n* Codasip: Custom processor IP\n\n**Traditional Semiconductor Companies**\n\n* Renesas, NXP, Infineon: Automotive and industrial\n* Microchip: Embedded controllers\n* STMicroelectronics: IoT and automotive\n\n**The Path to 30%**\n\nFor RISC-V to reach 30% market share by 2030, several scenarios could unfold:\n\n**Scenario 1: China Mandate (Highest Probability)**\n\n* Chinese government mandates RISC-V for government/critical infrastructure\n* Domestic market alone could drive 10-15% global share\n* Supply chain effects ripple globally\n\n**Scenario 2: Killer Application**\n\n* Breakthrough in AI processors using RISC-V\n* Performance/efficiency advantage drives rapid adoption\n* Similar to how smartphones drove ARM adoption\n\n**Scenario 3: Ecosystem Tipping Point**\n\n* Software support reaches parity with ARM\n* Major cloud providers standardize on RISC-V\n* Developer momentum becomes self-sustaining\n\n**Scenario 4: Geopolitical Acceleration**\n\n* Technology sovereignty drives European/Indian adoption\n* U.S.-China decoupling accelerates alternative architectures\n* Multiple regions simultaneously push RISC-V\n\n**Market Measurement Considerations**\n\nThe 30% threshold depends critically on measurement methodology:\n\n**Unit Shipments vs. Revenue**\n\n* RISC-V dominates low-cost embedded (high volume, low price)\n* ARM/x86 dominate high-value processors\n* Unit share will exceed revenue share significantly\n\n**Processor Definition**\n\n* Includes all programmable processors (MCUs, MPUs, DSPs)\n* Excludes fixed-function ASICs\n* Includes embedded processors in SoCs\n\n**Geographic Coverage**\n\n* Must include China (largest growth market)\n* Captive production (for internal use) counts\n* Black/gray market difficult to measure\n\n**Industry Forecasts**\n\nCurrent analyst projections for RISC-V market share in 2030:\n\n* Omdia (May 2024): Nearly 25%\n* Semico Research: 28% (more bullish)\n* Counterpoint: 22-24% (more conservative)\n\nThe 30% threshold exceeds all mainstream forecasts, requiring either:\n\n* Faster adoption than currently anticipated\n* Methodology differences inflating share\n* Unforeseen catalytic events\n\n**Historical Precedents**\n\nPrevious architecture transitions provide context:\n\n* ARM in mobile: 0% to 95% in 15 years (2000-2015)\n* x86 in servers: 10% to 90% in 20 years (1990-2010)\n* MIPS in embedded: Peak of 20% market share\n\nRISC-V reaching 30% in essentially 10 years (2020-2030) would represent one of the fastest architecture transitions in semiconductor history.\n\n**Implications of 30% Market Share**\n\nIf RISC-V achieves 30% share, implications include:\n\n* Fundamental disruption of ARM's business model\n* Acceleration of open-source hardware movement\n* Shift in semiconductor industry power dynamics\n* New geographical distribution of processor design\n* Potential \\$50-100 billion market value shift\n\nThis question ultimately asks whether open-source principles can transform hardware as profoundly as they transformed software, with 2030 as the critical inflection point." }, { "id": 39278, "title": "By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?", "short_title": "Two New Curbs on China's Semi Tech by 2031?", "url_title": "Two New Curbs on China's Semi Tech by 2031?", "slug": "two-new-curbs-on-chinas-semi-tech-by-2031", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:50:53.291422Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T19:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T17:03:07.154789Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-05T19:34:28.739032Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:34:12.078460Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T15:16:34.375531Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 38628, "title": "By 2031, will at least two new significant regulatory actions restricting China's access to advanced semiconductor technology be implemented?", "created_at": "2025-08-19T05:50:53.291928Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T19:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T19:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T19:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## Semiconductor Export Controls (2018–2025)\n\n* Phase 1 (2018–2021): Targeted restrictions (e.g., Huawei, SMIC).\n* Phase 2 (2022): Comprehensive October 7, 2022 BIS rules — restricted advanced chips, equipment, and U.S. persons in PRC fabs.\n* Phase 3 (2023): Closed loopholes with new “performance density” metrics, Nvidia chip restrictions, expanded country coverage.\n* Phase 4 (2024): December 2024 expansion: 24 more tools, HBM memory, updated software/tool controls, >140 new entities.\n\nAllied Coordination to Date\n\n* Netherlands: [<u>ASML</u>](https://www.asml.com/) — partial bans on DUV exports to China (2023); restrictions on servicing existing machines (2024).\n* Japan (METI): 2023 controls on 23 categories of chipmaking equipment.\n* South Korea (MOTIE) & Taiwan (MOEA): Memory and foundry-related restrictions; complex balances given economic interests.\n\nFuture Escalation Drivers\n\n* Technological: PRC progress in 7nm (SMIC), AI accelerators, quantum computing.\n* Geopolitical: Taiwan Strait military crises or broader U.S.-China confrontation.\n* Economic: PRC chip deployment in EVs, telecom, or defense.\n\nConstraints on New Controls\n\n* Economic backlash for allies (ASML \\~50% of revenue from PRC equipment sales in 2024).\n* Political pushback (Japan, South Korea balancing industry concerns).\n* Risks of accelerating PRC self-sufficiency (e.g., Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, SMIC’s workaround).\n\nThe 2025–2030 Window\nThe next 5 years feature:\n\n* U.S. elections (2025, 2029), Taiwan elections, and PRC military modernization timelines.\n* Next-gen tech rollouts (2nm, possibly 1nm).\n* AI/quantum advances that may trigger preemptive export bans.\n\nThe outcome — whether two or more major escalations occur — will shape global chip supply chains, geopolitical competition, and the future of U.S.–China technological decoupling.", "resolution_criteria": "Note: This is not a Metaculus main feed question, does not count toward leaderboard scoring, and may be less strictly operationalized than main feed questions. It is here to supplement the project [<u>AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-geo/), curated by Yan X. Zhang, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at San José State University.\n\n***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2030, inclusive, at least two new, distinct, and significant regulatory actions are implemented that are designed to restrict the People's Republic of China's (PRC) access to advanced semiconductor technology. Otherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\n**Resolution Sources** Resolution will be based on official announcements from government bodies (such as the U.S. Department of Commerce or Japan's METI) as reported by credible, major international news organizations. A regulatory action will be considered \"implemented\" when it officially comes into effect.\n\nPrimary sources for identifying a reported action include:\n\n* [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/)\n* [Associated Press (AP)](https://www.ap.org/)\n* [Agence France-Presse (AFP)](https://www.afp.com/)\n* [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)\n\n**Definition of a \"Significant Regulatory Action\"** A single regulatory action qualifies as \"significant\" if it is implemented by one or more countries (such as the U.S., Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, South Korea, or Taiwan) and meets at least **one** of the criteria below. Two actions are \"distinct\" if they are announced separately and are not merely minor clarifications of one another.\n\n1. **Broadens Technical Controls:** The action expands the scope of controlled technology by:\n * Adding new categories of restricted chips (e.g., adding specific classes of legacy-node chips like those at 28nm or older, or specific types of memory like HBM, DRAM, or NAND flash).\n * Tightening performance thresholds for existing controls (e.g., lowering the processing power or interconnect speed benchmarks for restricted AI accelerators).\n * Expanding controls to new categories of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, materials, or electronic design automation (EDA) software.\n2. **Expands Geographic Scope:** The action widens the international coalition of export controls against the PRC by:\n * Bringing at least two new countries into a coordinated export control regime aimed at the PRC's semiconductor sector.\n * Implementing a new, formal multilateral agreement (involving at least three countries) that establishes restrictions explicitly aimed at the PRC.\n * Imposing coordinated and publicly announced restrictions on key transshipment hubs (e.g., Singapore, Malaysia, UAE) to prevent diversion of technology to the PRC.\n3. **Strengthens Enforcement Framework:** The action creates a substantially more restrictive enforcement mechanism by:\n * Significantly expanding the scope of the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to cover new categories of items or end-users related to the PRC's semiconductor industry.\n * Adding at least 20 new PRC-based entities involved in the advanced semiconductor supply chain to a major trade blacklist (such as the U.S. Entity List) in a single action.", "fine_print": "**Fine Print & Ambiguity Resolution**\n\n* The two regulatory actions must be distinct. For example, a single announcement that expands controls on both AI chips and EDA software counts as one action. An announcement in May followed by a separate, new restriction in September would count as two.\n* Standard updates to entity lists or minor technical adjustments to existing rules will not be considered \"significant\" unless they meet one of the specific thresholds defined above.\n* Resolution will be based on the substance of the regulatory action, not just the official label. The action must be clearly intended to restrict the PRC's access to technology for strategic or national security reasons.", "post_id": 39278, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761670976.364069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761670976.364069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## Semiconductor Export Controls (2018–2025)\n\n* Phase 1 (2018–2021): Targeted restrictions (e.g., Huawei, SMIC).\n* Phase 2 (2022): Comprehensive October 7, 2022 BIS rules — restricted advanced chips, equipment, and U.S. persons in PRC fabs.\n* Phase 3 (2023): Closed loopholes with new “performance density” metrics, Nvidia chip restrictions, expanded country coverage.\n* Phase 4 (2024): December 2024 expansion: 24 more tools, HBM memory, updated software/tool controls, >140 new entities.\n\nAllied Coordination to Date\n\n* Netherlands: [<u>ASML</u>](https://www.asml.com/) — partial bans on DUV exports to China (2023); restrictions on servicing existing machines (2024).\n* Japan (METI): 2023 controls on 23 categories of chipmaking equipment.\n* South Korea (MOTIE) & Taiwan (MOEA): Memory and foundry-related restrictions; complex balances given economic interests.\n\nFuture Escalation Drivers\n\n* Technological: PRC progress in 7nm (SMIC), AI accelerators, quantum computing.\n* Geopolitical: Taiwan Strait military crises or broader U.S.-China confrontation.\n* Economic: PRC chip deployment in EVs, telecom, or defense.\n\nConstraints on New Controls\n\n* Economic backlash for allies (ASML \\~50% of revenue from PRC equipment sales in 2024).\n* Political pushback (Japan, South Korea balancing industry concerns).\n* Risks of accelerating PRC self-sufficiency (e.g., Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro, SMIC’s workaround).\n\nThe 2025–2030 Window\nThe next 5 years feature:\n\n* U.S. elections (2025, 2029), Taiwan elections, and PRC military modernization timelines.\n* Next-gen tech rollouts (2nm, possibly 1nm).\n* AI/quantum advances that may trigger preemptive export bans.\n\nThe outcome — whether two or more major escalations occur — will shape global chip supply chains, geopolitical competition, and the future of U.S.–China technological decoupling." }, { "id": 39268, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "url_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "slug": "saf-rsf-face-to-face-peace-talks-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129162Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T01:13:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T07:18:59.906824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T01:15:12Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38610, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129515Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **YES** if credible media reports or official statements confirm that both Sudanese Armed Forces ([SAF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces)) and Rapid Support Forces ([RSF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces)) delegations are physically present at the same location simultaneously for peace negotiations before December 31, 2025. Both delegations must be present at the same venue during overlapping time periods (not virtual participation). Any official delegation level qualifies, including military commanders, political representatives, or designated negotiators.\n\nSources for resolution include, but are not limited to, reports from Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, UN statements, African Union announcements, or official statements from the SAF or RSF.", "fine_print": "Informal or track-two meetings without official delegation status do not qualify. Meetings must be explicitly characterized as peace negotiations, ceasefire talks, or political dialogue—not merely humanitarian coordination. Sequential meetings where parties attend the same venue at different times do not qualify.", "post_id": 39268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762183428.903, "end_time": 1763066311.965, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762183428.903, "end_time": 1763066311.965, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1269203811182643 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue." }, { "id": 39265, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "short_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "url_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "slug": "25-increase-in-minority-business-share", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644014Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.919159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:45.696473Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38607, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644420Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses issued in Pensacola increases by at least 25% in 2028 compared to the 2024 baseline.\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. 2024 Baseline: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) × 100\n2. 2028 Target: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) × 100\n3. Increase: ((2028 share - 2024 share) / 2024 share) × 100 ≥ 25%\n\n**Example**:\n- If 2024: 100 minority-owned out of 500 total = 20% share\n- Target 2028: At least 25% share (125 minority-owned out of 500)\n- This represents a 25% relative increase in the share\n\n**\"Minority-Owned\" Definition**:\nBusiness where one or more minority individuals own at least 51% of the business. Minorities include:\n- Black/African American\n- Hispanic/Latino\n- Asian\n- Native American/Alaska Native\n- Pacific Islander\n- Middle Eastern/North African (if tracked)\n- Multiracial individuals\n\n**\"New Business License\" Definition**:\n- Initial business tax receipt/license issued\n- Not renewals or transfers\n- All business types (retail, service, professional, etc.)\n- Home-based businesses included\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. City of Pensacola business license database with demographics\n2. Pensacola Chamber of Commerce diversity report\n3. City economic development reports\n4. University of West Florida economic studies\n5. State of Florida minority business statistics (city-specific)\n\n**Self-Identification Requirements**:\n- Based on voluntary self-identification\n- City must collect this data for both years\n- If multiple owners, count if any qualify as minority\n- No verification/certification required beyond self-reporting\n\n**What Counts**:\n- Sole proprietorships\n- Partnerships\n- Corporations\n- LLCs\n- Non-profits operating businesses\n- Franchise owners (if minority-owned)\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Business license renewals\n- Transfers of existing businesses\n- Businesses outside city limits\n- Government entities\n- Inactive licenses (must operate in year)\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, use 2024 boundaries for both years\n\n**Time Period**:\n- 2024: January 1 - December 31, 2024\n- 2028: January 1 - December 31, 2028\n- Full year data required for both\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If demographic data not collected in 2024: Use 2025 as baseline\n- If data collection methods change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing demographic data: Only count known minority-owned\n- If city stops issuing licenses: AMBIGUOUS\n- Joint ventures: Count if minority partner has ≥51% ownership", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets." }, { "id": 39264, "title": "Will annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "short_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "url_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "slug": "30-traffic-ksi-reduction-by-2028", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:30.408873Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.937133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:35.523209Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38606, "title": "Will annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:30.409272Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) incidents on two designated priority corridors in Pensacola falls by at least 30% comparing the 2028 three-year average to the 2024-2026 baseline.\n\n**KSI Definition**:\n- **Killed**: Fatal injuries resulting in death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Incapacitating injuries requiring hospitalization (not just ER treatment)\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. Baseline: Average annual KSI for 2024-2026 on the two corridors\n2. Target Period: Average annual KSI for 2026-2028 on the same corridors\n3. Reduction: ((Baseline - Target) / Baseline) × 100 ≥ 30%\n\n**Priority Corridors**:\n- Must be designated by City of Pensacola by December 31, 2025\n- If not designated, use the two corridors with highest 2024 KSI counts\n- Corridors must be within city limits\n- Minimum 1 mile length each\n\n**Data Requirements**:\n- Official law enforcement crash statistics\n- Must use consistent reporting standards throughout period\n- Include all crashes on corridor regardless of fault\n- Pedestrian, bicycle, and vehicle incidents all count\n\n**Three-Year Rolling Average Example**:\n- 2024-2026 baseline: (2024 KSI + 2025 KSI + 2026 KSI) / 3\n- 2026-2028 target: (2026 KSI + 2027 KSI + 2028 KSI) / 3\n- Note: 2026 counts in both averages\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. Pensacola Police Department official statistics\n2. Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles crash database\n3. City of Pensacola Vision Zero or safety reports\n4. Escambia County Sheriff's Office (if applicable)\n5. FDOT District 3 crash data\n\n**Geographic Boundaries**:\n- Full corridor length within city limits\n- Intersections at both ends included\n- Side street crashes within 250 feet of corridor count\n\n**What Counts as \"Seriously Injured\"**:\n- Incapacitating injury per police report\n- Hospital admission (not just ER visit)\n- Injuries preventing normal activities\n- Based on officer assessment at scene\n\n**Resolution Requirements**:\n- Both corridors must achieve 30% reduction individually\n- If one achieves 30% and other doesn't: Resolves NO\n- Combined average not sufficient - each must meet target\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If city limits change: Use 2024 boundaries\n- If corridor is reconstructed/closed: Use available data\n- If reporting standards change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing data: Interpolate if <3 months, otherwise AMBIGUOUS\n- If no corridors designated and no clear top 2: AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed" }, { "id": 39263, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "url_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "slug": "bruce-beach-phase-complete-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.163557Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.728321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:24.118714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38605, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.164008Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the next phase of Bruce Beach redevelopment is completed and open to public use by December 31, 2027.\n\n**\"Next Phase\" Definition**:\nThe next major construction phase as defined in official city plans, following any work completed before January 1, 2025. Must include at least $1 million in improvements.\n\n**\"Completed\" Requires** (must meet 4 of 6):\n1. Playground or recreation equipment installed\n2. Trails or pathways constructed\n3. Stormwater/resilience infrastructure operational\n4. Pavilions or structures built\n5. Shoreline improvements finished\n6. Parking/access improvements done\n\n**\"Open to the Public\"**:\n- Physical barriers removed\n- Official opening announcement or ceremony\n- Regular public access permitted\n- Amenities available for use\n- No construction fencing restricting access\n\n**What Counts as Phase Completion**:\n- All major elements in phase plan constructed\n- City acceptance of contractor work\n- Certificate of completion or similar documentation\n- Ribbon cutting or official opening event\n- Public use commenced\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Partial completion with major elements unfinished\n- Soft opening with construction ongoing\n- Temporary opening for events only\n- Plans or renderings without construction\n- Minor maintenance or repairs\n- Work outside defined phase boundaries\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola official announcements\n- Parks & Recreation Department confirmation\n- Local news coverage of opening\n- City Council minutes accepting completion\n- Photographic evidence of completed amenities\n- Public works or contractor completion certificates\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Bruce Beach park boundaries\n- Connected amenities on adjacent property count if part of phase plan\n\n**Timing Clarification**:\n- Must be completed AND open by 11:59 PM CST December 31, 2027\n- If opens then closes for repairs: Still counts as YES\n- If substantially complete but minor items remain: Counts as YES if open\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If phase is split into sub-phases: First sub-phase completion counts\n- Storm damage after opening: Still resolves YES\n- If site is open but some amenities restricted: YES if majority accessible\n- Multiple phases ongoing: Count the first to complete", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities." }, { "id": 39262, "title": "Will at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafés open, directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "url_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "slug": "three-zoning-enabled-stores-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923564Z", 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corner stores or cafés open, directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923983Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafés, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafés as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafés and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafés (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/café\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafés and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafés open in Pensacola by December 31, 2027, where the openings were directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning.\n\n**\"Directly Enabled by Updated Zoning\"** means:\n- Location was NOT permitted for commercial use before January 1, 2025\n- Zoning change after January 1, 2025 allowed the commercial use\n- Business opened because of this zoning change\n\n**Qualifying Zoning Changes**:\n- Rezoning from residential to mixed-use\n- New overlay districts allowing commercial\n- Form-based codes permitting mixed uses\n- Text amendments adding commercial uses\n- Variance or special exception based on policy change\n\n**\"Neighborhood-Scale Corner Store or Café\"** Definition:\n- **Size**: Under 5,000 square feet\n- **Type**: Grocery/convenience store, café, coffee shop, bakery, deli\n- **Location**: Within or adjacent to primarily residential area\n- **Pedestrian-oriented**: Accessible by walking from nearby homes\n\n**\"New\" Business Requirements**:\n- Did not exist at that location before\n- Not a relocation of existing business\n- Not a rebranding of existing business\n- Opens after the zoning change\n\n**Evidence of Zoning Enablement**:\n- Business permit showing zoning classification\n- City planning documents showing zoning change\n- News coverage linking opening to zoning reform\n- Business owner statement about zoning enabling opening\n- City official confirmation of connection\n\n**What COUNTS**:\n- Coffee shop in former residential-only zone\n- Corner store in new mixed-use district\n- Café enabled by form-based code\n- Bakery in adaptive reuse building\n- Deli opened through overlay district\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Businesses in already commercial zones\n- Food trucks or mobile vendors\n- Home-based businesses without storefront\n- Businesses over 5,000 sq ft\n- Bars or primarily alcohol establishments\n- Chain stores (must be independent/franchise)\n- Businesses outside city limits\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- Must serve primarily residential neighborhood\n\n**Documentation Needed**:\n- Business license showing opening date\n- Zoning records showing classification change\n- Evidence connecting opening to zoning change\n\n**Timeline Clarification**:\n- Zoning change must occur after January 1, 2025\n- Business must open by December 31, 2027\n- Must establish causal link between zoning and opening", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafés, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafés as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafés and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafés (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/café\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafés and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027" }, { "id": 39261, "title": "Will three resilience hubs (multi-use facilities for emergencies) be operational within Pensacola by August 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "url_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "slug": "three-resilience-hubs-by-aug-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:46.688513Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.072517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:04:24.560458Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-09-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38603, "title": "Will three resilience hubs (multi-use facilities for emergencies) be operational within Pensacola by August 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:46.688936Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-09-30T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-08-15T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if three or more resilience hubs are operational within Pensacola city limits by August 31, 2027.\n\n**Definition of \"Resilience Hub\"**:\n\nMust meet ALL core requirements:\n\n1. **Multi-use Facility**: Serves community functions during normal operations AND designated emergency support center\n\n2. **Emergency Infrastructure** (must have 4 of 6):\n - Backup power (generator ≥48 hours OR solar + battery)\n - HVAC system for cooling/heating\n - Water access and restrooms\n - Communications (wifi/internet + charging stations)\n - ADA accessible\n - Kitchen or food service capability\n\n3. **Operational Readiness**:\n - Written emergency operations plan\n - Trained staff or volunteers identified\n - Coordination agreement with city/county emergency management\n - Publicly announced as resilience hub\n\n4. **Public Access**:\n - Open to general public during emergencies\n - No membership or fee required for emergency use\n - Regular community programming when not activated\n\n**\"Operational\" Definition**:\n- Facility upgrades complete\n- Equipment installed and tested\n- Staff/volunteers trained\n- At least one drill or exercise completed\n- Officially designated by city as resilience hub\n- Ready for activation (not necessarily activated)\n\n**Qualifying Facilities**:\n- Community centers\n- Schools (with public access agreement)\n- Libraries\n- Faith-based facilities (if publicly accessible)\n- Recreation centers\n- Repurposed buildings\n- New construction\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Traditional emergency shelters only\n- Private facilities without public access\n- Facilities outside city limits\n- Mobile/temporary structures\n- Facilities without year-round community use\n- Cooling/warming centers without other hub features\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola emergency management designation\n- City council resolutions or mayor announcements\n- Emergency management plan updates listing hubs\n- News coverage of hub openings/designation\n- City website listing of resilience hubs\n- FEMA or state grant award documentation\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- All three must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, count facilities within 2024 boundaries\n\n**Timing**:\n- Must be operational by 11:59 PM CST August 31, 2027\n- August deadline ensures readiness for peak hurricane season", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike" }, { "id": 39260, "title": "Will construction begin on at least 200 affordable (≤60% AMI) rental units in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "200 Affordable Units Started by 2027?", "url_title": "200 Affordable Units Started by 2027?", "slug": "200-affordable-units-started-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:44.459308Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.885144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:04:15.007266Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38602, "title": "Will construction begin on at least 200 affordable (≤60% AMI) rental units in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:44.459724Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola faces an affordable housing crisis that threatens to undermine its economic growth and community stability. With median rents rising faster than incomes and workforce housing increasingly scarce, the need for affordable rental units has reached critical levels. The target of 200 new affordable units represents a meaningful step toward addressing this challenge.\n\n**The Affordability Crisis**\n\nCurrent conditions in Pensacola:\n- Median rent increased 35% from 2020-2024\n- Over 50% of renters are cost-burdened (paying >30% of income)\n- Minimum wage workers need 80+ hours/week to afford median 1-bedroom\n- Waitlists for existing affordable housing exceed 2 years\n- Teachers, nurses, and first responders struggle to find housing\n\n**Understanding 60% AMI**\n\nArea Median Income (AMI) for Pensacola MSA (2024):\n- 1 person: $54,450 (60% = $32,670)\n- 2 person: $62,200 (60% = $37,320)\n- 3 person: $70,000 (60% = $42,000)\n- 4 person: $77,750 (60% = $46,650)\n\nAt 60% AMI, maximum affordable rents would be approximately:\n- Studio: $816/month\n- 1-bedroom: $875/month\n- 2-bedroom: $1,050/month\n- 3-bedroom: $1,213/month\n\nCompare to current market rents:\n- 1-bedroom market rate: $1,400-1,800\n- 2-bedroom market rate: $1,800-2,400\n\n**Why 200 Units Matter**\n\nWhile Pensacola needs thousands of affordable units, 200 represents:\n- Approximately 2-3 typical affordable housing developments\n- Housing for 500-600 residents\n- $40-60 million in development investment\n- 300+ construction jobs\n- Proof of concept for larger initiatives\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources converging:\n- **Federal**: HOME, CDBG, Section 8 project-based vouchers\n- **State**: SAIL (State Apartment Incentive Loan), Florida Housing Finance Corporation\n- **Local**: Housing trust funds, CRA funds, general obligation bonds\n- **Tax Credits**: 9% and 4% Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC)\n- **Private**: Opportunity Zone investments, ESG-focused capital\n\n**Potential Development Sites**\n\nSeveral locations could accommodate affordable housing:\n- Former shopping centers ripe for redevelopment\n- Vacant lots in established neighborhoods\n- Underutilized commercial corridors\n- City-owned land available for development\n- Religious institution partnerships\n- Transit-oriented development opportunities\n\n**Development Models**\n\n**Traditional LIHTC Projects**:\n- 50-100 units per development\n- Mix of income levels (often 30-80% AMI)\n- 15-30 year affordability commitments\n- Professional property management\n\n**Public-Private Partnerships**:\n- City land contribution reduces costs\n- Mixed-income to ensure sustainability\n- Community land trusts for permanent affordability\n- Employer-assisted housing programs\n\n**Innovative Approaches**:\n- Modular construction reducing costs 20-30%\n- Adaptive reuse of existing buildings\n- Micro-units for single workers\n- Co-housing and shared equity models\n\n**Barriers to Development**\n\nChallenges that must be overcome:\n- **Financial**: Gap between development costs and supportable rents\n- **Regulatory**: Zoning restrictions, parking requirements, lengthy approvals\n- **Community**: NIMBY opposition to affordable housing\n- **Market**: Rising construction costs and interest rates\n- **Capacity**: Limited experienced affordable housing developers locally\n\n**Policy Tools Available**\n\nCities successfully creating affordable housing use:\n- Inclusionary zoning requirements\n- Density bonuses for affordable units\n- Expedited permitting for affordable projects\n- Property tax abatements\n- Fee waivers for affordable development\n- Land banking and disposition programs\n\n**The Ripple Effects**\n\n200 new affordable units would:\n- **Economic**: Keep $2-3 million annually in local economy\n- **Workforce**: Help retain essential workers\n- **Education**: Reduce student mobility improving outcomes\n- **Health**: Decrease homelessness and housing instability\n- **Equity**: Provide opportunity in high-resource neighborhoods\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns that 200 units will begin construction:\n- LIHTC award announcements (typically spring/fall)\n- City council approval of funding or land disposition\n- Developer announcements and community meetings\n- Site preparation and demolition permits\n- Construction financing closings\n- Groundbreaking ceremony schedules\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Florida cities' recent affordable housing production:\n- St. Petersburg: 500+ units started 2023-2024\n- Gainesville: 300+ units started 2023-2024\n- Tallahassee: 400+ units started 2023-2024\n\nPensacola's goal of 200 units is achievable with focused effort.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if construction begins on at least 200 rental units designated as affordable at ≤60% Area Median Income (AMI) within Pensacola city limits by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Affordability Requirements**:\n- Units must be deed-restricted or legally committed to ≤60% AMI rents\n- Affordability period must be at least 15 years\n- Can include mix of incomes if 200+ units are ≤60% AMI\n- Both family and senior housing qualify\n\n**\"Construction Begin\" Definition**:\nMust have at least ONE of:\n- Building permit issued for vertical construction\n- Official groundbreaking ceremony\n- Foundation work commenced\n- Site work beyond just clearing/grading\n- Construction loan closed with work started\n\n**Qualifying Unit Types**:\n- New construction apartments or townhomes\n- Substantial rehabilitation creating additional units\n- Adaptive reuse/conversion creating new units\n- Modular or manufactured housing if permanent\n- Mixed-income if 200+ units are affordable\n\n**What Counts Toward 200**:\n- Units in single development of 200+\n- Multiple developments if combined total ≥200\n- Phases of larger project if all begin by deadline\n- Units at various AMI levels ≤60% all count\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Homeownership units (only rentals)\n- Market-rate units in mixed-income development\n- Units affordable at >60% AMI\n- Existing units being preserved (must be new/added)\n- Units outside Pensacola city limits\n- Student housing or dormitories\n- Transitional or emergency shelter beds\n- Units only \"planned\" or \"approved\" but not started\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City building permit database\n- Florida Housing Finance Corporation awards\n- Developer press releases with permits confirmed\n- Local news coverage of groundbreakings\n- City council minutes approving funding\n- Construction photos/documentation\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within official Pensacola city limits\n- If annexation occurs, units in newly annexed areas count\n- If city contracts, only units in remaining city count\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If construction starts then stops: Still counts as YES\n- If project is revised to <200 affordable: Counts actual units started\n- Multiple phases: Only count phases actually started by deadline\n- If AMI changes: Use AMI definitions at time of commitment", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola faces an affordable housing crisis that threatens to undermine its economic growth and community stability. With median rents rising faster than incomes and workforce housing increasingly scarce, the need for affordable rental units has reached critical levels. The target of 200 new affordable units represents a meaningful step toward addressing this challenge.\n\n**The Affordability Crisis**\n\nCurrent conditions in Pensacola:\n- Median rent increased 35% from 2020-2024\n- Over 50% of renters are cost-burdened (paying >30% of income)\n- Minimum wage workers need 80+ hours/week to afford median 1-bedroom\n- Waitlists for existing affordable housing exceed 2 years\n- Teachers, nurses, and first responders struggle to find housing\n\n**Understanding 60% AMI**\n\nArea Median Income (AMI) for Pensacola MSA (2024):\n- 1 person: $54,450 (60% = $32,670)\n- 2 person: $62,200 (60% = $37,320)\n- 3 person: $70,000 (60% = $42,000)\n- 4 person: $77,750 (60% = $46,650)\n\nAt 60% AMI, maximum affordable rents would be approximately:\n- Studio: $816/month\n- 1-bedroom: $875/month\n- 2-bedroom: $1,050/month\n- 3-bedroom: $1,213/month\n\nCompare to current market rents:\n- 1-bedroom market rate: $1,400-1,800\n- 2-bedroom market rate: $1,800-2,400\n\n**Why 200 Units Matter**\n\nWhile Pensacola needs thousands of affordable units, 200 represents:\n- Approximately 2-3 typical affordable housing developments\n- Housing for 500-600 residents\n- $40-60 million in development investment\n- 300+ construction jobs\n- Proof of concept for larger initiatives\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources converging:\n- **Federal**: HOME, CDBG, Section 8 project-based vouchers\n- **State**: SAIL (State Apartment Incentive Loan), Florida Housing Finance Corporation\n- **Local**: Housing trust funds, CRA funds, general obligation bonds\n- **Tax Credits**: 9% and 4% Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC)\n- **Private**: Opportunity Zone investments, ESG-focused capital\n\n**Potential Development Sites**\n\nSeveral locations could accommodate affordable housing:\n- Former shopping centers ripe for redevelopment\n- Vacant lots in established neighborhoods\n- Underutilized commercial corridors\n- City-owned land available for development\n- Religious institution partnerships\n- Transit-oriented development opportunities\n\n**Development Models**\n\n**Traditional LIHTC Projects**:\n- 50-100 units per development\n- Mix of income levels (often 30-80% AMI)\n- 15-30 year affordability commitments\n- Professional property management\n\n**Public-Private Partnerships**:\n- City land contribution reduces costs\n- Mixed-income to ensure sustainability\n- Community land trusts for permanent affordability\n- Employer-assisted housing programs\n\n**Innovative Approaches**:\n- Modular construction reducing costs 20-30%\n- Adaptive reuse of existing buildings\n- Micro-units for single workers\n- Co-housing and shared equity models\n\n**Barriers to Development**\n\nChallenges that must be overcome:\n- **Financial**: Gap between development costs and supportable rents\n- **Regulatory**: Zoning restrictions, parking requirements, lengthy approvals\n- **Community**: NIMBY opposition to affordable housing\n- **Market**: Rising construction costs and interest rates\n- **Capacity**: Limited experienced affordable housing developers locally\n\n**Policy Tools Available**\n\nCities successfully creating affordable housing use:\n- Inclusionary zoning requirements\n- Density bonuses for affordable units\n- Expedited permitting for affordable projects\n- Property tax abatements\n- Fee waivers for affordable development\n- Land banking and disposition programs\n\n**The Ripple Effects**\n\n200 new affordable units would:\n- **Economic**: Keep $2-3 million annually in local economy\n- **Workforce**: Help retain essential workers\n- **Education**: Reduce student mobility improving outcomes\n- **Health**: Decrease homelessness and housing instability\n- **Equity**: Provide opportunity in high-resource neighborhoods\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns that 200 units will begin construction:\n- LIHTC award announcements (typically spring/fall)\n- City council approval of funding or land disposition\n- Developer announcements and community meetings\n- Site preparation and demolition permits\n- Construction financing closings\n- Groundbreaking ceremony schedules\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Florida cities' recent affordable housing production:\n- St. Petersburg: 500+ units started 2023-2024\n- Gainesville: 300+ units started 2023-2024\n- Tallahassee: 400+ units started 2023-2024\n\nPensacola's goal of 200 units is achievable with focused effort." }, { "id": 39259, "title": "Will the Port of Pensacola publish and begin executing an official blue economy plan by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Port Blue Economy Plan by 2027?", "url_title": "Port Blue Economy Plan by 2027?", "slug": "port-blue-economy-plan-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:42.249735Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.434316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:04:03.396873Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38601, "title": "Will the Port of Pensacola publish and begin executing an official blue economy plan by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:42.250163Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Port of Pensacola sits at a critical juncture. As traditional port activities evolve and climate challenges mount, ports worldwide are embracing \"blue economy\" strategies that balance economic growth with ocean sustainability. For Pensacola's port, this transition could unlock new opportunities while protecting the marine resources that define the region.\n\n**What is the Blue Economy?**\n\nThe blue economy encompasses sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth while preserving marine ecosystems. For ports, this means:\n- Sustainable shipping and logistics\n- Marine renewable energy development\n- Aquaculture and sustainable fisheries\n- Marine biotechnology and research\n- Eco-tourism and recreation\n- Coastal resilience and restoration\n- Ocean technology innovation\n\n**Current Port Status**\n\nThe Port of Pensacola currently operates as:\n- A working waterfront with cargo operations\n- Home to marine repair and shipbuilding\n- Tourist destination with cruise potential\n- Mixed industrial and commercial uses\n- Gateway to Pensacola Bay's marine resources\n\nHowever, without a coordinated blue economy strategy, the port risks:\n- Missing emerging market opportunities\n- Continued environmental degradation\n- Loss of competitiveness to forward-thinking ports\n- Conflicts between industrial and sustainable uses\n\n**Why Blue Economy Planning Matters Now**\n\n1. **Federal Momentum**: Biden administration's Ocean Climate Action Plan prioritizes blue economy\n2. **Funding Opportunities**: NOAA, EPA, and DOT grants favor blue economy projects\n3. **Regional Competition**: Gulf ports from Tampa to Mobile developing sustainability plans\n4. **Climate Imperative**: Sea level rise and storms threaten traditional port operations\n5. **Economic Diversification**: Over-reliance on single industries creates vulnerability\n\n**Potential Blue Economy Initiatives**\n\nA comprehensive plan might include:\n\n**Sustainable Port Operations**:\n- Shore power for vessels (reducing emissions)\n- Green shipping corridors\n- Alternative fuel infrastructure\n- Circular economy waste management\n\n**Marine Innovation District**:\n- Ocean technology incubators\n- Marine research facilities\n- Aquaculture demonstration projects\n- Blue biotech companies\n\n**Eco-Tourism Enhancement**:\n- Sustainable cruise operations\n- Marine education centers\n- Diving and water sports hubs\n- Historic maritime attractions\n\n**Working Waterfront Preservation**:\n- Sustainable fishing fleet support\n- Seafood processing modernization\n- Boat building and repair expansion\n- Maritime workforce training\n\n**Coastal Resilience Integration**:\n- Living shoreline projects\n- Oyster reef restoration\n- Nature-based storm protection\n- Water quality improvement systems\n\n**What Constitutes a Blue Economy Plan**\n\nA qualifying plan would typically include:\n- Vision and goals for sustainable ocean economy\n- Stakeholder engagement process\n- Market analysis and opportunities\n- Specific project proposals\n- Implementation timeline\n- Funding strategies\n- Performance metrics\n- Governance structure\n\n**Stakeholder Alignment**\n\nSuccess requires coordination among:\n- Port Authority leadership\n- City and County governments\n- Marine industries and businesses\n- Environmental organizations\n- Research institutions (UWF Marine Science)\n- Tourism and hospitality sector\n- Commercial and recreational fishing\n- Military (Naval Air Station)\n\n**Economic Potential**\n\nBlue economy sectors show strong growth:\n- Marine renewable energy: 8% annual growth\n- Sustainable aquaculture: 5.3% annual growth\n- Marine biotechnology: $6.4 billion globally\n- Eco-tourism: 20% annual growth in coastal areas\n\nFor Pensacola, even capturing a small share could mean:\n- Hundreds of new jobs\n- Millions in annual revenue\n- Improved environmental health\n- Enhanced quality of life\n\n**Implementation Indicators**\n\n\"Beginning execution\" would be evidenced by:\n- Hiring of blue economy coordinator or team\n- Launch of specific pilot projects\n- Release of RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- Partnership agreements signed\n- Grant applications submitted\n- Public-private ventures initiated\n- Infrastructure investments begun\n\n**Barriers to Overcome**\n\n- Competing visions for port development\n- Funding gaps for transformation\n- Regulatory complexity\n- Industry resistance to change\n- Environmental cleanup needs\n- Infrastructure limitations\n- Political will and leadership changes", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the Port of Pensacola both publishes an official blue economy plan AND demonstrates beginning of execution by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Part 1: Publishing Requirements**\n\nThe plan must be:\n- **Official**: Formally adopted by Port of Pensacola authority/board\n- **Public**: Available on website or through public records\n- **Comprehensive**: Addressing at least 3 blue economy sectors\n- **Strategic**: Including goals, timeline, and implementation approach\n\n**Qualifying Blue Economy Sectors** (must address 3+):\n1. Sustainable shipping/logistics\n2. Marine renewable energy\n3. Aquaculture/fisheries\n4. Marine biotechnology/research\n5. Eco-tourism/recreation\n6. Coastal resilience/restoration\n7. Ocean technology/innovation\n8. Blue carbon initiatives\n9. Marine education/workforce\n\n**Part 2: Execution Requirements**\n\nMust demonstrate at least 2 of the following:\n- **Staffing**: Hiring blue economy coordinator/director/team\n- **Projects**: Launching specific project from plan (with evidence)\n- **Procurement**: Issuing RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- **Funding**: Securing grants or budget allocation for plan items\n- **Partnerships**: Executing MOUs/agreements for plan implementation\n- **Infrastructure**: Beginning construction/installation of blue economy infrastructure\n- **Programs**: Starting new programs outlined in plan\n\n**What Qualifies as \"Port of Pensacola\"**:\n- Pensacola Port Authority\n- City of Pensacola Port operations\n- Joint port authority if includes Pensacola\n- Successor organization to current port authority\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- Port authority meeting minutes/resolutions\n- Published plan documents\n- Press releases or announcements\n- News coverage with official confirmation\n- Grant award notices\n- Contract/RFP documents\n- Job postings for blue economy positions\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Studies or assessments without implementation plan\n- Plans covering only traditional port operations\n- Regional plans not specific to Pensacola port\n- Draft plans not formally adopted\n- Private company plans for port tenants\n- City or county plans not specific to port\n\n**Timeline**: Both publication AND execution evidence must occur by December 31, 2027", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39259, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Port of Pensacola sits at a critical juncture. As traditional port activities evolve and climate challenges mount, ports worldwide are embracing \"blue economy\" strategies that balance economic growth with ocean sustainability. For Pensacola's port, this transition could unlock new opportunities while protecting the marine resources that define the region.\n\n**What is the Blue Economy?**\n\nThe blue economy encompasses sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth while preserving marine ecosystems. For ports, this means:\n- Sustainable shipping and logistics\n- Marine renewable energy development\n- Aquaculture and sustainable fisheries\n- Marine biotechnology and research\n- Eco-tourism and recreation\n- Coastal resilience and restoration\n- Ocean technology innovation\n\n**Current Port Status**\n\nThe Port of Pensacola currently operates as:\n- A working waterfront with cargo operations\n- Home to marine repair and shipbuilding\n- Tourist destination with cruise potential\n- Mixed industrial and commercial uses\n- Gateway to Pensacola Bay's marine resources\n\nHowever, without a coordinated blue economy strategy, the port risks:\n- Missing emerging market opportunities\n- Continued environmental degradation\n- Loss of competitiveness to forward-thinking ports\n- Conflicts between industrial and sustainable uses\n\n**Why Blue Economy Planning Matters Now**\n\n1. **Federal Momentum**: Biden administration's Ocean Climate Action Plan prioritizes blue economy\n2. **Funding Opportunities**: NOAA, EPA, and DOT grants favor blue economy projects\n3. **Regional Competition**: Gulf ports from Tampa to Mobile developing sustainability plans\n4. **Climate Imperative**: Sea level rise and storms threaten traditional port operations\n5. **Economic Diversification**: Over-reliance on single industries creates vulnerability\n\n**Potential Blue Economy Initiatives**\n\nA comprehensive plan might include:\n\n**Sustainable Port Operations**:\n- Shore power for vessels (reducing emissions)\n- Green shipping corridors\n- Alternative fuel infrastructure\n- Circular economy waste management\n\n**Marine Innovation District**:\n- Ocean technology incubators\n- Marine research facilities\n- Aquaculture demonstration projects\n- Blue biotech companies\n\n**Eco-Tourism Enhancement**:\n- Sustainable cruise operations\n- Marine education centers\n- Diving and water sports hubs\n- Historic maritime attractions\n\n**Working Waterfront Preservation**:\n- Sustainable fishing fleet support\n- Seafood processing modernization\n- Boat building and repair expansion\n- Maritime workforce training\n\n**Coastal Resilience Integration**:\n- Living shoreline projects\n- Oyster reef restoration\n- Nature-based storm protection\n- Water quality improvement systems\n\n**What Constitutes a Blue Economy Plan**\n\nA qualifying plan would typically include:\n- Vision and goals for sustainable ocean economy\n- Stakeholder engagement process\n- Market analysis and opportunities\n- Specific project proposals\n- Implementation timeline\n- Funding strategies\n- Performance metrics\n- Governance structure\n\n**Stakeholder Alignment**\n\nSuccess requires coordination among:\n- Port Authority leadership\n- City and County governments\n- Marine industries and businesses\n- Environmental organizations\n- Research institutions (UWF Marine Science)\n- Tourism and hospitality sector\n- Commercial and recreational fishing\n- Military (Naval Air Station)\n\n**Economic Potential**\n\nBlue economy sectors show strong growth:\n- Marine renewable energy: 8% annual growth\n- Sustainable aquaculture: 5.3% annual growth\n- Marine biotechnology: $6.4 billion globally\n- Eco-tourism: 20% annual growth in coastal areas\n\nFor Pensacola, even capturing a small share could mean:\n- Hundreds of new jobs\n- Millions in annual revenue\n- Improved environmental health\n- Enhanced quality of life\n\n**Implementation Indicators**\n\n\"Beginning execution\" would be evidenced by:\n- Hiring of blue economy coordinator or team\n- Launch of specific pilot projects\n- Release of RFPs for blue economy initiatives\n- Partnership agreements signed\n- Grant applications submitted\n- Public-private ventures initiated\n- Infrastructure investments begun\n\n**Barriers to Overcome**\n\n- Competing visions for port development\n- Funding gaps for transformation\n- Regulatory complexity\n- Industry resistance to change\n- Environmental cleanup needs\n- Infrastructure limitations\n- Political will and leadership changes" }, { "id": 39258, "title": "Will two new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities (such as community centers, skateparks, or learning spaces) open for regular public use in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Two Youth Facilities by 2027?", "url_title": "Two Youth Facilities by 2027?", "slug": "two-youth-facilities-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:40.003690Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.069737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:03:53.153114Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38600, "title": "Will two new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities (such as community centers, skateparks, or learning spaces) open for regular public use in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:40.004101Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola's young people represent the city's future, yet they often lack dedicated spaces for recreation, learning, and social connection. While the city has parks and some recreational facilities, there's a critical gap in modern, purpose-built spaces specifically designed for youth and teen engagement.\n\n**The Current Youth Infrastructure Gap**\n\nPensacola's existing youth facilities face several challenges:\n- Aging community centers with limited teen-specific programming\n- Few safe, supervised spaces open during after-school and evening hours\n- Limited facilities in underserved neighborhoods\n- Lack of modern amenities that appeal to today's youth\n\nThis matters because research consistently shows that quality youth facilities:\n- Reduce juvenile crime by up to 30%\n- Improve academic outcomes and graduation rates\n- Build community connections and civic engagement\n- Provide critical support during formative years\n\n**What Qualifies as Youth/Teen-Oriented Facilities**\n\n**Community Centers with Youth Focus**:\n- Dedicated teen rooms or wings\n- After-school programming spaces\n- Computer labs and maker spaces\n- Music/art studios\n- Sports courts or fitness areas\n- Study rooms and tutoring spaces\n\n**Skateparks and Action Sports Facilities**:\n- Concrete or modular skateparks\n- BMX tracks or pump tracks\n- Parkour training areas\n- Climbing walls\n- Multi-use courts for street sports\n\n**Learning and Innovation Spaces**:\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers\n- Digital media labs\n- Entrepreneurship incubators for youth\n- Environmental education centers\n- Career readiness centers\n- Library teen spaces (if substantially expanded)\n\n**The Growing Momentum**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2027 a promising period:\n\n1. **Federal Funding**: American Rescue Plan Act funds available for youth facilities\n2. **State Programs**: Florida's youth development grants expanding\n3. **Community Support**: Recent surveys show youth facilities as top priority\n4. **Partner Organizations**: YMCA, Boys & Girls Clubs, and others seeking expansion\n5. **Economic Development**: Youth retention seen as key to city's future\n\n**Potential Projects Already in Discussion**\n\n- West Pensacola Community Center renovation and expansion\n- Proposed skatepark at Hollice T. Williams Park\n- Youth innovation hub in downtown\n- Conversion of vacant schools to community centers\n- Partnership facilities with Escambia County Schools\n- YMCA or Boys & Girls Club new locations\n\n**What \"Substantially Upgraded\" Means**\n\nFor existing facilities to count as substantially upgraded:\n- Minimum $500,000 investment\n- Addition of at least 3,000 square feet OR\n- Complete renovation of existing space for youth use\n- New youth-specific amenities not previously available\n- Extended hours or programming for teens\n\n**The Community Impact**\n\nInvestment in youth facilities delivers multiple benefits:\n\n**Public Safety**: Structured activities during peak crime hours (3-6 PM)\n**Economic**: Workforce development and youth retention\n**Health**: Physical activity and mental health support\n**Equity**: Access for all regardless of family income\n**Community**: Bridging divides between neighborhoods\n\n**Funding Strategies**\n\nCities successfully building youth facilities combine:\n- Federal/state grants (often 50-80% of costs)\n- Local bond initiatives or CRA funds\n- Private philanthropy and naming rights\n- Public-private partnerships\n- Corporate sponsorships\n- Operating partnerships with nonprofits\n\n**Why Two Facilities Matter**\n\nTwo facilities would:\n- Serve different geographic areas of the city\n- Provide diverse types of youth spaces\n- Demonstrate sustained commitment, not just one-off project\n- Create network effects and peer learning\n- Reach critical mass for community impact", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if two or more new or substantially upgraded youth/teen-oriented facilities open for regular public use within Pensacola city limits by December 31, 2027.\n\n**Qualifying Facilities Must Be**:\n1. **Youth/Teen-Oriented**: Primary purpose or substantial portion (≥40%) dedicated to serving ages 10-18\n2. **Public**: Open to general public (not private clubs requiring paid membership)\n3. **Regular Use**: Operating at least 20 hours per week, year-round (excluding holidays)\n4. **Within City Limits**: Located within official Pensacola city boundaries\n\n**Types of Qualifying Facilities**:\n- Community centers with dedicated youth programming/space\n- Skateparks (concrete or modular, minimum 5,000 sq ft)\n- Teen centers or youth centers\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers for youth\n- Maker spaces or innovation labs for youth\n- Boys & Girls Clubs (if new location)\n- YMCA facilities (if new or substantially upgraded)\n- Library teen spaces (if new or substantially expanded)\n- Youth sports complexes (if multi-use beyond single sport)\n- Environmental or outdoor education centers for youth\n\n**\"New\" Facility Definition**:\n- Brand new construction OR\n- Conversion of non-youth facility to youth use OR\n- Expansion creating new youth facility within existing building\n\n**\"Substantially Upgraded\" Definition** (must meet 2 of 4):\n- Investment of $500,000+ in youth-specific improvements\n- Addition of 3,000+ square feet for youth use\n- Complete renovation of existing youth space\n- Addition of 3+ new youth program types not previously offered\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Schools or school facilities (unless open for community use after hours)\n- Private clubs requiring paid membership for access\n- Single-sport facilities (unless part of larger youth complex)\n- Playgrounds without structured programming\n- Facilities outside city limits\n- Minor upgrades or routine maintenance\n- Facilities not yet open for regular public use\n- Temporary or seasonal facilities\n\n**Evidence of Opening**:\n- Official ribbon cutting or grand opening announcement\n- City press release or website confirmation\n- Local news coverage of opening\n- Posted operating hours and active programming\n- Social media or website showing regular operations\n\n**Resolution Date**: \n- Facilities must be open and operating by 11:59 PM CST December 31, 2027\n- \"Open\" means accepting youth participants, not just building completion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola's young people represent the city's future, yet they often lack dedicated spaces for recreation, learning, and social connection. While the city has parks and some recreational facilities, there's a critical gap in modern, purpose-built spaces specifically designed for youth and teen engagement.\n\n**The Current Youth Infrastructure Gap**\n\nPensacola's existing youth facilities face several challenges:\n- Aging community centers with limited teen-specific programming\n- Few safe, supervised spaces open during after-school and evening hours\n- Limited facilities in underserved neighborhoods\n- Lack of modern amenities that appeal to today's youth\n\nThis matters because research consistently shows that quality youth facilities:\n- Reduce juvenile crime by up to 30%\n- Improve academic outcomes and graduation rates\n- Build community connections and civic engagement\n- Provide critical support during formative years\n\n**What Qualifies as Youth/Teen-Oriented Facilities**\n\n**Community Centers with Youth Focus**:\n- Dedicated teen rooms or wings\n- After-school programming spaces\n- Computer labs and maker spaces\n- Music/art studios\n- Sports courts or fitness areas\n- Study rooms and tutoring spaces\n\n**Skateparks and Action Sports Facilities**:\n- Concrete or modular skateparks\n- BMX tracks or pump tracks\n- Parkour training areas\n- Climbing walls\n- Multi-use courts for street sports\n\n**Learning and Innovation Spaces**:\n- STEM/STEAM learning centers\n- Digital media labs\n- Entrepreneurship incubators for youth\n- Environmental education centers\n- Career readiness centers\n- Library teen spaces (if substantially expanded)\n\n**The Growing Momentum**\n\nSeveral factors make 2025-2027 a promising period:\n\n1. **Federal Funding**: American Rescue Plan Act funds available for youth facilities\n2. **State Programs**: Florida's youth development grants expanding\n3. **Community Support**: Recent surveys show youth facilities as top priority\n4. **Partner Organizations**: YMCA, Boys & Girls Clubs, and others seeking expansion\n5. **Economic Development**: Youth retention seen as key to city's future\n\n**Potential Projects Already in Discussion**\n\n- West Pensacola Community Center renovation and expansion\n- Proposed skatepark at Hollice T. Williams Park\n- Youth innovation hub in downtown\n- Conversion of vacant schools to community centers\n- Partnership facilities with Escambia County Schools\n- YMCA or Boys & Girls Club new locations\n\n**What \"Substantially Upgraded\" Means**\n\nFor existing facilities to count as substantially upgraded:\n- Minimum $500,000 investment\n- Addition of at least 3,000 square feet OR\n- Complete renovation of existing space for youth use\n- New youth-specific amenities not previously available\n- Extended hours or programming for teens\n\n**The Community Impact**\n\nInvestment in youth facilities delivers multiple benefits:\n\n**Public Safety**: Structured activities during peak crime hours (3-6 PM)\n**Economic**: Workforce development and youth retention\n**Health**: Physical activity and mental health support\n**Equity**: Access for all regardless of family income\n**Community**: Bridging divides between neighborhoods\n\n**Funding Strategies**\n\nCities successfully building youth facilities combine:\n- Federal/state grants (often 50-80% of costs)\n- Local bond initiatives or CRA funds\n- Private philanthropy and naming rights\n- Public-private partnerships\n- Corporate sponsorships\n- Operating partnerships with nonprofits\n\n**Why Two Facilities Matter**\n\nTwo facilities would:\n- Serve different geographic areas of the city\n- Provide diverse types of youth spaces\n- Demonstrate sustained commitment, not just one-off project\n- Create network effects and peer learning\n- Reach critical mass for community impact" }, { "id": 39237, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-uk-economy-grow-by-at-least-2-in-any-year-of-the-59th-parliament", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.644665Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.601140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:01.069779Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38579, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.645072Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:15.797349Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 06:18:06 is higher than 47.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39237, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35244680851063825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_score": 1.368586748092271, "coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "weighted_coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "spot_peer_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_archived_score": 1.368586748092271, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`" }, { "id": 39236, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alcatraz-house-inmates-before-2028", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623023Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.098882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.070726Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38578, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623513Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:21.902755Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524. If the community prediction on 2025-08-21 22:52:45 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39236, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.775, 0.225 ], "means": [ 0.23718750000000002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_score": 1.7611511969153844, "coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "relative_legacy_score": 0.032710939667928735, "weighted_coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "spot_peer_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_score": 63.22682154995129, "baseline_archived_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_archived_score": 1.7611511969153844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.032710939667928735, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.22682154995129 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39235, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-23 for the Metaculus question 'Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-tulsi-gabbard-be-out-as-dni-before-september-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.722728Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.316243Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.135723Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-23T01:44:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38577, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-23 for the Metaculus question 'Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.723141Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-23T01:44:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:22.881768Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661\n- Original question title: Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025:\n> \n> * Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI) or \n> * There is an official announcement that she will cease to be DNI before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Examples of such announcements include, but are not limited to, Gabbard announcing her resignation or Trump announcing her firing.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n> \n> On June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n> \n> > A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n> \n> According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n> \n> > Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n> \n> > Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n> \n> > “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38661,\"question_id\":37882,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661. If the community prediction on 2025-08-23 01:44:41 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39235, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755616089.237103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755616089.237103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.566419105506085, "peer_score": 5.359114902306127, "coverage": 0.9535478583530145, "relative_legacy_score": 0.07124811026374273, "weighted_coverage": 0.9535478583530145, "spot_peer_score": 6.532379172337658, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 56.566419105506085, "peer_archived_score": 5.359114902306127, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.07124811026374273, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.532379172337658, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661\n- Original question title: Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025:\n> \n> * Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI) or \n> * There is an official announcement that she will cease to be DNI before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Examples of such announcements include, but are not limited to, Gabbard announcing her resignation or Trump announcing her firing.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n> \n> On June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n> \n> > A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n> \n> According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n> \n> > Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n> \n> > Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n> \n> > “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38661,\"question_id\":37882,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39234, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-executive-branch-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-the-supreme-court-by-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.105616Z", "published_at": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.071445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.394331Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T16:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:05Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38576, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.106021Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T16:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:05Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:28.723860Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192\n- Original question title: Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 54.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either:\n> \n> * direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR\n> * non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed.\n> * Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court.\n\nOriginal background: \n> According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n> \n> > shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n> \n> At the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n> \n> > The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n> \n> Almost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n> \n> > The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n> \n> At the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n> \n> In another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n> \n> > In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n> \n> The Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n> \n> However, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n> \n> > The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> * Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n> * Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38192,\"question_id\":37478,\"last_cp\":0.54}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192. If the community prediction on 2025-08-26 16:49:22 is higher than 54.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39234, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755946804.898283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755946804.898283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42450980392156873 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.478863256221125, "peer_score": 7.919610046230164, "coverage": 0.9007514137250408, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0042332485117784315, "weighted_coverage": 0.9007514137250408, "spot_peer_score": 9.14025314511752, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 22.478863256221125, "peer_archived_score": 7.919610046230164, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0042332485117784315, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.14025314511752, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192\n- Original question title: Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 54.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either:\n> \n> * direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR\n> * non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed.\n> * Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court.\n\nOriginal background: \n> According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n> \n> > shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n> \n> At the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n> \n> > The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n> \n> Almost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n> \n> > The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n> \n> At the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n> \n> In another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n> \n> > In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n> \n> The Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n> \n> However, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n> \n> > The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> * Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n> * Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38192,\"question_id\":37478,\"last_cp\":0.54}}`" }, { "id": 39233, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-safety-checks-mandated-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.400472Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.628955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.715575Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:28:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:10Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:14.658072Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38575, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.400900Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:28:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:29.580391Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190\n- Original question title: Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a federal bill is signed into law, an executive order is issued, or a federal regulation is officially adopted in the United States that legally mandates that AI companies do at least one of the following:\n> \n> * they conduct third-party safety evaluations of their frontier models\n> * they conduct internal safety evaluations of their frontier models and share their data or results with either the US government or third parties.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question is purposefully not defining \"frontier models\". Any such defintion by the bill, EO, or regulation would suffice to resolve this question, even if it is for a slightly different model class (e.g., \"dangerous models\"), as long as it is intended to cover all models from a capability level and above. This includes simple compute thresholds, benchmark results, or leaving the decision of what is considered a frontier model to the AI companies or the evaluators.\n> * The date the bill, EO, or regulation comes into effect is immaterial for the purposes of this question. It will resolve solely based on the date the bill is signed into law, the EO is issued, or the regulation is officially adopted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n> \n> > The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n> \n> Later in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n> \n> > **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n> \n> However, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38190,\"question_id\":37477,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 12:28:27 is higher than 35.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39233, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755506907.255235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755506907.255235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3617934782608696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.96091696437847, "peer_score": 9.784113660246259, "coverage": 0.8317602570410129, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0005762431412493592, "weighted_coverage": 0.8317602570410129, "spot_peer_score": 13.27257394491826, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 41.96091696437847, "peer_archived_score": 9.784113660246259, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0005762431412493592, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.27257394491826, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190\n- Original question title: Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a federal bill is signed into law, an executive order is issued, or a federal regulation is officially adopted in the United States that legally mandates that AI companies do at least one of the following:\n> \n> * they conduct third-party safety evaluations of their frontier models\n> * they conduct internal safety evaluations of their frontier models and share their data or results with either the US government or third parties.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question is purposefully not defining \"frontier models\". Any such defintion by the bill, EO, or regulation would suffice to resolve this question, even if it is for a slightly different model class (e.g., \"dangerous models\"), as long as it is intended to cover all models from a capability level and above. This includes simple compute thresholds, benchmark results, or leaving the decision of what is considered a frontier model to the AI companies or the evaluators.\n> * The date the bill, EO, or regulation comes into effect is immaterial for the purposes of this question. It will resolve solely based on the date the bill is signed into law, the EO is issued, or the regulation is officially adopted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n> \n> > The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n> \n> Later in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n> \n> > **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n> \n> However, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38190,\"question_id\":37477,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" } ] }
