Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=480
{ "count": 5892, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=460", "results": [ { "id": 37874, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce the taxation of Social Security income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will \"no tax on Social Security\" pass?", "url_title": "Will \"no tax on Social Security\" pass?", "slug": "will-no-tax-on-social-security-pass", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:03:35.011854Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:06:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.847656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:06:11Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:06:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37194, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce the taxation of Social Security income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:03:35.012314Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:06:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:06:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T13:06:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-08T01:09:24.473275Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nUnder current law, Social Security benefits may be subject to federal income tax depending on a recipient's \"combined income\" (adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits). For singles with combined income between \\$25,000 and \\$34,000, up to 50% of benefits may be taxable; above \\$34,000, up to 85% may be taxable. For married couples filing jointly, the thresholds are \\$32,000 and \\$44,000, respectively. These thresholds, established in 1983 and 1993, are not indexed for inflation, meaning more retirees become subject to this tax over time.\n\nIn February 2025, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) reintroduced the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text), which would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits entirely. The Penn Wharton Budget Model has estimated that completely eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would [<u>reduce federal revenue by approximately \\$1.4 trillion</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/10/eliminating-income-taxes-on-social-security-benefits) over the next decade. President Trump has [<u>expressed general support for reducing taxes on Social Security benefits</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-social-security-tax/) but has not specifically endorsed the Massie bill.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation does not include any change to the taxability of Social Security income.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes any provision that reduces the taxation of Social Security benefits for some or all recipients compared to taxation levels in effect for tax year 2025. If the bill contains no such provisions, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See the text of the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text) as a potential parallel).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill contains any provision that would reduce the tax burden on Social Security benefits for any group of taxpayers.\n* Qualifying provisions could include increasing the thresholds at which Social Security benefits become taxable, reducing the percentage of benefits subject to taxation, or creating new deductions or credits specifically related to Social Security income.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether Social Security taxation is reduced, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751422012.187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751422012.187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3116078322912355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.953442524745334, "peer_score": 6.136887708002297, "coverage": 0.3116831470838821, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9932840006932506, "spot_peer_score": 18.14988500424913, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "baseline_archived_score": 18.953442524745334, "peer_archived_score": 6.136887708002297, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.14988500424913, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nUnder current law, Social Security benefits may be subject to federal income tax depending on a recipient's \"combined income\" (adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits). For singles with combined income between \\$25,000 and \\$34,000, up to 50% of benefits may be taxable; above \\$34,000, up to 85% may be taxable. For married couples filing jointly, the thresholds are \\$32,000 and \\$44,000, respectively. These thresholds, established in 1983 and 1993, are not indexed for inflation, meaning more retirees become subject to this tax over time.\n\nIn February 2025, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) reintroduced the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text), which would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits entirely. The Penn Wharton Budget Model has estimated that completely eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would [<u>reduce federal revenue by approximately \\$1.4 trillion</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/10/eliminating-income-taxes-on-social-security-benefits) over the next decade. President Trump has [<u>expressed general support for reducing taxes on Social Security benefits</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-social-security-tax/) but has not specifically endorsed the Massie bill.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation does not include any change to the taxability of Social Security income." }, { "id": 37873, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will \"no tax on overtime\" pass in the US?", "url_title": "Will \"no tax on overtime\" pass in the US?", "slug": "will-no-tax-on-overtime-pass-in-the-us", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:02:37.700140Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:16:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.826040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:17:07Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:16:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37193, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for overtime income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:02:37.700595Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:16:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:16:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T13:16:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T21:49:16.414354Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T21:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nThe proposal to create a tax deduction for overtime income has gained traction since President Trump [<u>proposed it during the 2024 campaign</u>](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-end-taxes-overtime). In May 2025, a group of Republican Senators, led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), [<u>introduced the \"Overtime Wages Tax Relief Act,\"</u>](https://www.marshall.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senators-marshall-tuberville-and-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-cut-taxes-on-overtime-wages/) which would establish an above-the-line deduction for overtime wages earned by workers across various industries. Supporters argue that the deduction would benefit middle-class workers who take on extra hours to support their families, while critics cite concerns about its estimated [<u>\\$680 billion cost</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/) over ten years and potential inequities in who receives the benefit.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"overtime premium pay\" as defined by the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes a provision allowing for an above-the-line deduction for overtime compensation. If the bill does not include such a provision, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See [<u>section 110102 of the \"One, Big, Beautiful Bill\"</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf#page=12) as marked up by the House Ways and Means Committee for an example of what this might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill includes any form of deduction specifically for overtime income. The specific implementation details (amount limitations, qualifying workers, etc.) are not relevant to the resolution.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* For purposes of this question, \"overtime income\" refers to compensation paid in excess of regular rates as defined under fair labor standards legislation.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) of the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether an overtime income deduction is included, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751865528.990366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751865528.990366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7121687360937281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.43464537951506, "peer_score": 14.596682349769013, "coverage": 0.34058972762364687, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9939990340531295, "spot_peer_score": 31.9822791234597, "spot_baseline_score": 40.053792958372874, "baseline_archived_score": 12.43464537951506, "peer_archived_score": 14.596682349769013, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.9822791234597, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.053792958372874 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nThe proposal to create a tax deduction for overtime income has gained traction since President Trump [<u>proposed it during the 2024 campaign</u>](https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-proposal-end-taxes-overtime). In May 2025, a group of Republican Senators, led by Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), [<u>introduced the \"Overtime Wages Tax Relief Act,\"</u>](https://www.marshall.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/senators-marshall-tuberville-and-colleagues-introduce-legislation-to-cut-taxes-on-overtime-wages/) which would establish an above-the-line deduction for overtime wages earned by workers across various industries. Supporters argue that the deduction would benefit middle-class workers who take on extra hours to support their families, while critics cite concerns about its estimated [<u>\\$680 billion cost</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-overtime-tax-exemption/) over ten years and potential inequities in who receives the benefit.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"overtime premium pay\" as defined by the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938." }, { "id": 37872, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US pass \"no tax on tips\"?", "url_title": "Will the US pass \"no tax on tips\"?", "slug": "will-the-us-pass-no-tax-on-tips", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:01:43.739492Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:20:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.977772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:21:02Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:20:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:49:19.802656Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37192, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill include a deduction for tip income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:01:43.739922Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:20:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:20:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T13:20:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T22:07:15.947673Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-07T22:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nDuring his 2024 campaign, President Trump [<u>promised to eliminate taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/09/trump-tipped-wage-tax-cut/) for service workers, a proposal that resonated with restaurant and hospitality workers. Critics argue that the benefit would [<u>help very few Americans</u>](https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/exempting-tips-federal-income-tax-would-benefit-very-few-workers) and not target benefits to low-income workers, while [<u>supporters</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/politics/taxes-on-tips-eliminate-proposal-harris) contend it would provide tax relief to millions of hardworking Americans in the service industry.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"qualified tips\" received in the course of working in an occupation \"which traditionally and customarily receives tips.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes a provision allowing for an above-the-line deduction for qualified tips received by individuals in tipped occupations. If the bill does not include such a provision, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See [<u>section 110101 of the \"One, Big, Beautiful Bill\"</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf#page=11) as marked up by the House Ways and Means Committee for an example of what this might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill includes any form of deduction specifically for tip income. The specific implementation details (amount limitations, qualifying occupations, etc.) are not relevant to the resolution.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether a tip income deduction is included, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751870432.693501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751870432.693501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8121782480822397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938287972603064, 0.12874931591104752, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4697891025791026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9707370048979824, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.002691564690256, "peer_score": 3.61819227936915, "coverage": 0.3406865839904239, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9940612806235536, "spot_peer_score": -11.54221549251023, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "baseline_archived_score": 19.002691564690256, "peer_archived_score": 3.61819227936915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.54221549251023, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nDuring his 2024 campaign, President Trump [<u>promised to eliminate taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/09/trump-tipped-wage-tax-cut/) for service workers, a proposal that resonated with restaurant and hospitality workers. Critics argue that the benefit would [<u>help very few Americans</u>](https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/exempting-tips-federal-income-tax-would-benefit-very-few-workers) and not target benefits to low-income workers, while [<u>supporters</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/politics/taxes-on-tips-eliminate-proposal-harris) contend it would provide tax relief to millions of hardworking Americans in the service industry.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows taxpayers to deduct \"qualified tips\" received in the course of working in an occupation \"which traditionally and customarily receives tips.\"" }, { "id": 37869, "title": "Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?", "short_title": "Will unemployment for recent college graduates remain at 20+% before 2030?", "url_title": "Will unemployment for recent college graduates remain at 20+% before 2030?", "slug": "will-unemployment-for-recent-college-graduates-remain-at-20-before-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T17:51:55.876354Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.157515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:11Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": 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"emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37189, "title": "Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T17:51:55.876782Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A survey released in 2024 [found](https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/students-worry-about-ai-impacts-survey/) that 53% of college students agreed with the statement, \"I am worried about the impacts of AI on the workforce in general.\" Additionally, 37% were worried about the impact of AI on their own desired career path, with a full 27% even saying they were doubting or reconsidering their majors due to AI. In STEM subjects, the issue is even more pronounced, with 1 in 3 STEM majors doubting or reconsidering their major.\n\nA 2024 survey of hiring managers [found](https://www.intelligent.com/8-in-10-companies-plan-to-layoff-recent-college-grads-this-year-due-to-ai/) that 78% saying that recent college graduates would be laid off because of AI and 69% fully or somewhat agreeing with the statement that AI can do the word of a recent graduate. Among the tasks most cited as being able to be offloaded to AI were email writing (by 73% of respondents), data entry (73%), research (63%), and customer support (61%).\n\nAt the time of this question, an inordinate surge in unemployment of college graduates is not yet apparent in the data, at least in the 20-24 age range:\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1J7Hc&width=670&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe> \nHowever, a recent Atlantic article [Something Alarming Is Happening to the Job Market](https://www.aol.com/sign-ai-competing-college-grads-100000034.html) by Derek Thompson discussed a recent deterioration in job conditions for recent college graduates, with reports of MBA students having trouble finding work, as well as a surge in law school applications, which can be a sign of some students perceiving a poor job market. One theory is an economy that has not fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a massive surge in unemployment of recent grads and saw white collar jobs hardest hit. Another theory is that the lifetime earnings gap between college and non-college careers peaked in 2010 and that therefore the investment return from a college degree is less certain than it used to be.\n\nA third theory is AI. According to Thompson:\n\n> Consider, then, a novel economic indicator: the recent-grad gap. It’s the difference between the unemployment of young college graduates and the overall labor force. Going back four decades, young college graduates almost always have a lower—sometimes much lower—unemployment rate than the overall economy, because they are relatively cheap labor and have just spent four years marinating in a (theoretically) enriching environment.\n\n> But last month’s recent-grad gap hit an all-time low. That is, today’s college graduates are entering an economy that is relatively worse for young college grads than any month on record, going back at least four decades.\n\n> The strong interpretation of this graph is that it’s exactly what one would expect to see if firms replaced young workers with machines. As law firms leaned on AI for more paralegal work, and consulting firms realized that five 22-year-olds with ChatGPT could do the work of 20 recent grads, and tech firms turned over their software programming to a handful of superstars working with AI co-pilots, the entry level of America’s white-collar economy would contract.\n\nFor more information, see:\n\n* BLS: [Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm)\n* Infinitive: [The Looming Impact of AI on U.S. Jobs](https://infinitive.com/the-looming-impact-of-ai-on-us-jobs/)\n* Nexford U: [How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030](https://www.nexford.edu/insights/how-will-ai-affect-jobs)\n* Understanding AI: [Why I'm not worried about AI causing mass unemployment](https://www.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [data presented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:unemployment), the unemployment rate among recent college graduates (age 22-27) is greater than or equal to 20.0% for three consecutive monthly updates posted before the January 2030 update. ", "fine_print": "If the resolution source should have material issues such as failing to update in a timely manner, then Metaculus may consult other resolution sources including directly accessing the Current Population Survey of the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are the source agencies used by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.\n\nThe question may resolve as **No** once it becomes impossible to resolve as **Yes**. For example, if the October 2029 update has an unemployment rate among recent college grads of less than 20.0%, then three consecutive months of ≥20.0% is not possible, so the question will resolve as **No** at that time.\n\nIf reporting changes from monthly to quarterly, then 1 quarter of ≥20.0% unemployment will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 37869, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757260531.756678, "end_time": 1760951889.381, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757260531.756678, "end_time": 1760951889.381, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.442760868516142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2767645108512169, 0.0, 0.1669059266791499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.09464378440008571, 0.3343470039728833, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20492408851264265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819305127899456, 0.2418667296983857, 0.07369964090399271, 0.0, 0.401327957992393, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.6716766914738247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4330817914234393, 0.0, 0.3665885696709727, 0.6183252296339623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9382946956399177, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 1.1598537489495466, 0.12100139284563863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.7288213086725668 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A survey released in 2024 [found](https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/students-worry-about-ai-impacts-survey/) that 53% of college students agreed with the statement, \"I am worried about the impacts of AI on the workforce in general.\" Additionally, 37% were worried about the impact of AI on their own desired career path, with a full 27% even saying they were doubting or reconsidering their majors due to AI. In STEM subjects, the issue is even more pronounced, with 1 in 3 STEM majors doubting or reconsidering their major.\n\nA 2024 survey of hiring managers [found](https://www.intelligent.com/8-in-10-companies-plan-to-layoff-recent-college-grads-this-year-due-to-ai/) that 78% saying that recent college graduates would be laid off because of AI and 69% fully or somewhat agreeing with the statement that AI can do the word of a recent graduate. Among the tasks most cited as being able to be offloaded to AI were email writing (by 73% of respondents), data entry (73%), research (63%), and customer support (61%).\n\nAt the time of this question, an inordinate surge in unemployment of college graduates is not yet apparent in the data, at least in the 20-24 age range:\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1J7Hc&width=670&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe> \nHowever, a recent Atlantic article [Something Alarming Is Happening to the Job Market](https://www.aol.com/sign-ai-competing-college-grads-100000034.html) by Derek Thompson discussed a recent deterioration in job conditions for recent college graduates, with reports of MBA students having trouble finding work, as well as a surge in law school applications, which can be a sign of some students perceiving a poor job market. One theory is an economy that has not fully recovered from the coronavirus pandemic, which caused a massive surge in unemployment of recent grads and saw white collar jobs hardest hit. Another theory is that the lifetime earnings gap between college and non-college careers peaked in 2010 and that therefore the investment return from a college degree is less certain than it used to be.\n\nA third theory is AI. According to Thompson:\n\n> Consider, then, a novel economic indicator: the recent-grad gap. It’s the difference between the unemployment of young college graduates and the overall labor force. Going back four decades, young college graduates almost always have a lower—sometimes much lower—unemployment rate than the overall economy, because they are relatively cheap labor and have just spent four years marinating in a (theoretically) enriching environment.\n\n> But last month’s recent-grad gap hit an all-time low. That is, today’s college graduates are entering an economy that is relatively worse for young college grads than any month on record, going back at least four decades.\n\n> The strong interpretation of this graph is that it’s exactly what one would expect to see if firms replaced young workers with machines. As law firms leaned on AI for more paralegal work, and consulting firms realized that five 22-year-olds with ChatGPT could do the work of 20 recent grads, and tech firms turned over their software programming to a handful of superstars working with AI co-pilots, the entry level of America’s white-collar economy would contract.\n\nFor more information, see:\n\n* BLS: [Incorporating AI impacts in BLS employment projections: occupational case studies](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2025/article/incorporating-ai-impacts-in-bls-employment-projections.htm)\n* Infinitive: [The Looming Impact of AI on U.S. Jobs](https://infinitive.com/the-looming-impact-of-ai-on-us-jobs/)\n* Nexford U: [How Will Artificial Intelligence Affect Jobs 2024-2030](https://www.nexford.edu/insights/how-will-ai-affect-jobs)\n* Understanding AI: [Why I'm not worried about AI causing mass unemployment](https://www.understandingai.org/p/software-didnt-eat-the-world)" }, { "id": 37867, "title": "Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?", "short_title": "Will there be a ban on deployment of AI agents within an OECD country by 2030?", "url_title": "Will there be a ban on deployment of AI agents within an OECD country by 2030?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-ban-on-deployment-of-ai-agents-within-an-oecd-country-by-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-17T19:52:37.282209Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.271293Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:05Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37188, "title": "Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-05-17T19:52:37.282669Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Crowdstrike](https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/cybersecurity-101/artificial-intelligence/agentic-ai/):\n\n> Artificial intelligence has come a long way from rule-based systems that simply follow instructions. Now, with agentic AI, we’re entering the era where AI actively makes decisions, learns from its environment and takes action without human intervention.\n\nHere are some of the examples listed by Crowdstrike:\n\n> Industrial robots: Agentic AI enables industrial robots to adapt in real time to drive efficiency improvements in manufacturing, logistics and customer interactions. In warehouses, AI-powered robotic systems dynamically adjust to shifting inventory demands, while in the retail and hospitality industries, robots equipped with agentic AI can provide personalized customer assistance.\n\n> Self-driving vehicles: Autonomous vehicles rely on agentic AI to process vast amounts of sensor data, predict the behavior of other drivers and make real-time navigation decisions. By continuously learning from road conditions and traffic patterns, self-driving systems improve safety and efficiency. \n\n> AI-driven virtual assistants: Agentic AI-powered virtual assistants can anticipate user needs, prioritize tasks and autonomously handle scheduling conflicts. These assistants can analyze contextual information, such as work deadlines and personal preferences, to optimize daily productivity.\n\n> AI companions for customer support: Businesses are leveraging AI-driven chatbots and virtual agents that go beyond simple, scripted responses. These AI systems can engage in dynamic conversations, detect sentiment and provide intelligent recommendations.\n\nHowever, agentic AI also has risks, for example:\n\n> Safety and control: As AI systems become more autonomous, the real challenge is in keeping them aligned with human values and safety standards. Agentic AI must be designed to align with human intentions. Building fail-safes and oversight mechanisms into these systems is essential for maintaining control without stifling innovation.\n\nAdditional concerns have been raised about agentic AI possibly taking away jobs from humans, causing issues with data security, prevention of bias, and transparency on the part of the AI systems. ([Lexis-Nexis](https://www.lexisnexis.com/community/insights/legal/b/thought-leadership/posts/the-future-of-agentic-ai-navigating-ethical-and-societal-implications)) \n\nIn 2023, Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT, citing privacy concerns. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/italy-data-protection-agency-opens-chatgpt-probe-privacy-concerns-2023-03-31/#:~:text=MILAN%2FSTOCKHOLM%2C%20March%2031%20%28Reuters%29%20,suspected%20breach%20of%20privacy%20rules)) AI researcher Yoshua Bengio [has called for](https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/05/07/ai-scientists-safe-and-useful-ai/), as one option, policy banning the most powerful autonomous AI systems unless proven safe. Others have made similar proposals. \n\nThe European Union is in the process of implementing the [AI Act,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which passed in 2024. It offers a flexible approach to regulation based on perceived risk levels, with the highest levels of risk being assigned to AI used for manipulation, deception and exploitation of vulnerabilities. Other risk aspects regulators have been tasked with assessing are AI safety components whose failures could put human life at risk, as well as AI tools that could interfere with people's fundamental rights, such as if it were used by local law enforcement. Recently the EU Commission formally [banned](https://techstrong.ai/agentic-ai/eu-closes-door-to-ai-agents-in-virtual-meetings/) AI agents from its meetings. \n\nIn the United States, no specific legislation has been enacted, but Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and other tech leaders in 2023 [signed a letter](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html) calling for a pause on the most advanced AI systems, citing safety concerns. In Canada, efforts [are being made](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-canada) to expand AI regulation, especially regulation focused on protecting user privacy (but not necessarily agentic AI as yet). \n\nSee also:\n\n* [AI Watch: Global regulatory tracker](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker#home)\n* [Agents Under Attack: Threat Modeling Agentic AI](https://www.cyberark.com/resources/threat-research-blog/agents-under-attack-threat-modeling-agentic-ai)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) a regulatory body with the authority to do so has announced a ban on the deployment of autonomous AI agents within the majority of the geographic area of any Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member country before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "The date a ban takes effect is immaterial. This question resolves to the date of an announcement and will resolve **Yes** as long as a ban is announced before January 1, 2030.\n\nAlthough this question anticipates the most likely path to a ban on deployment of autonomous AI agents would come about through executive action, if it came about through legislation then that would count as well, provided all the other criteria are met. Similarly, a ban that was not imposed directly on AI companies, but prevented the deployment of AI agents in a different way, e.g. by banning ISPs from giving access to them, would count.\n\nThe ban does not need to target AI agents specifically; any broader ban that encompasses all AI agents would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nSubsequent reversals of a ban will not cause the question to re-resolve.\n\nFor purposes of this question, an \"autonomous AI agent\" [is defined as](https://aws.amazon.com/what-is/ai-agents/):\n\n> a software program that can interact with its environment, collect data, and use the data to perform self-determined tasks to meet predetermined goals. Humans set goals, but an AI agent independently chooses the best actions it needs to perform to achieve those goals. For example, consider a contact center AI agent that wants to resolves \\[*sic*] customer queries. The agent will automatically ask the customer different questions, look up information in internal documents, and respond with a solution. Based on the customer responses, it determines if it can resolve the query itself or pass it on to a human.\n\nRegulations on behavior of autonomous AI agents, such as the prohibition on manipulative behavior in [Recital 29](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/recital/29/) of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, are not by themselves sufficient for a Yes resolution. \n\nLimited or targeted bans, such as prohibitions on use by minors or by employees of government agencies, are not sufficient. In order to count, a ban must be for the general population. \n\nIf there are exemptions from a general ban, such as allowing deployment by licensed university researchers or intelligence officers, it will still count. \n\nOECD member states will be considered to be the following, regardless of the OECD's membership changes after the launch of this question: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.", "post_id": 37867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755974444.768062, "end_time": 1761402993.003, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755974444.768062, "end_time": 1761402993.003, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.39256851289258754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5965892957781368, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Crowdstrike](https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/cybersecurity-101/artificial-intelligence/agentic-ai/):\n\n> Artificial intelligence has come a long way from rule-based systems that simply follow instructions. Now, with agentic AI, we’re entering the era where AI actively makes decisions, learns from its environment and takes action without human intervention.\n\nHere are some of the examples listed by Crowdstrike:\n\n> Industrial robots: Agentic AI enables industrial robots to adapt in real time to drive efficiency improvements in manufacturing, logistics and customer interactions. In warehouses, AI-powered robotic systems dynamically adjust to shifting inventory demands, while in the retail and hospitality industries, robots equipped with agentic AI can provide personalized customer assistance.\n\n> Self-driving vehicles: Autonomous vehicles rely on agentic AI to process vast amounts of sensor data, predict the behavior of other drivers and make real-time navigation decisions. By continuously learning from road conditions and traffic patterns, self-driving systems improve safety and efficiency. \n\n> AI-driven virtual assistants: Agentic AI-powered virtual assistants can anticipate user needs, prioritize tasks and autonomously handle scheduling conflicts. These assistants can analyze contextual information, such as work deadlines and personal preferences, to optimize daily productivity.\n\n> AI companions for customer support: Businesses are leveraging AI-driven chatbots and virtual agents that go beyond simple, scripted responses. These AI systems can engage in dynamic conversations, detect sentiment and provide intelligent recommendations.\n\nHowever, agentic AI also has risks, for example:\n\n> Safety and control: As AI systems become more autonomous, the real challenge is in keeping them aligned with human values and safety standards. Agentic AI must be designed to align with human intentions. Building fail-safes and oversight mechanisms into these systems is essential for maintaining control without stifling innovation.\n\nAdditional concerns have been raised about agentic AI possibly taking away jobs from humans, causing issues with data security, prevention of bias, and transparency on the part of the AI systems. ([Lexis-Nexis](https://www.lexisnexis.com/community/insights/legal/b/thought-leadership/posts/the-future-of-agentic-ai-navigating-ethical-and-societal-implications)) \n\nIn 2023, Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT, citing privacy concerns. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/technology/italy-data-protection-agency-opens-chatgpt-probe-privacy-concerns-2023-03-31/#:~:text=MILAN%2FSTOCKHOLM%2C%20March%2031%20%28Reuters%29%20,suspected%20breach%20of%20privacy%20rules)) AI researcher Yoshua Bengio [has called for](https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/05/07/ai-scientists-safe-and-useful-ai/), as one option, policy banning the most powerful autonomous AI systems unless proven safe. Others have made similar proposals. \n\nThe European Union is in the process of implementing the [AI Act,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which passed in 2024. It offers a flexible approach to regulation based on perceived risk levels, with the highest levels of risk being assigned to AI used for manipulation, deception and exploitation of vulnerabilities. Other risk aspects regulators have been tasked with assessing are AI safety components whose failures could put human life at risk, as well as AI tools that could interfere with people's fundamental rights, such as if it were used by local law enforcement. Recently the EU Commission formally [banned](https://techstrong.ai/agentic-ai/eu-closes-door-to-ai-agents-in-virtual-meetings/) AI agents from its meetings. \n\nIn the United States, no specific legislation has been enacted, but Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak and other tech leaders in 2023 [signed a letter](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html) calling for a pause on the most advanced AI systems, citing safety concerns. In Canada, efforts [are being made](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-canada) to expand AI regulation, especially regulation focused on protecting user privacy (but not necessarily agentic AI as yet). \n\nSee also:\n\n* [AI Watch: Global regulatory tracker](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker#home)\n* [Agents Under Attack: Threat Modeling Agentic AI](https://www.cyberark.com/resources/threat-research-blog/agents-under-attack-threat-modeling-agentic-ai)" }, { "id": 37865, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "url_title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-discord-announce-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:51:31.250374Z", "published_at": "2025-05-21T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.042923Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q2 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q22025", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-04-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-17T06:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-12T19:05:14.506245Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-08T07:26:55.352544Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37187, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:51:31.250374Z", "open_time": "2025-05-21T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T00:09:00.492047Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Discord, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://discord.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that for an announcement on the news section of the company's website to resolve the question as Yes, the announcement must be specific. Vague statements such as \"someday becoming a public company\" will not count. If there is any doubt, then greater weight will be placed on whether an S-1 has been filed.", "post_id": 37865, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748040747.115653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748040747.115653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19327355749256114 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.711652044292747, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6643861215780928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.913280262039635, "peer_score": 1.7316647745968896, "coverage": 0.68817607812749, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.68817607812749, "spot_peer_score": 1.13420556363895, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 44.913280262039635, "peer_archived_score": 1.7316647745968896, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.13420556363895, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/)" }, { "id": 37862, "title": "Will the Indian Armed Forces execute a kinetic attack in Pakistan proper in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-indian-armed-forces-execute-a-kinetic-attack-in-pakistan-proper-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:51:30.962627Z", "published_at": "2025-05-20T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.286697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-20T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37178, "title": "Will the LA Dodgers have the highest winning percentage in the MLB on June 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:51:30.644009Z", "open_time": "2025-05-17T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-19T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-15T02:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-15T11:57:31.224073Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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Resolves according to the [official list](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/countries/black-and-grey-lists.html).", "fine_print": "The question may resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the website is unavailable or not timely updated.", "post_id": 37855, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747651346.375661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.928 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747651346.375661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.928 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.941766124812987 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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37165, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Discord announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.549829Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T00:08:42.448823Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-24T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ars Technica: [Discord is planning an IPO this year, and big changes could be on the horizon](https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2025/03/report-discord-partners-with-jp-morgan-chase-goldman-sachs-for-a-2025-ipo/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Discord, Inc., announces before July 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [news](https://discord.com/blog) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that for an announcement on the news section of the company's website to resolve the question as Yes, the announcement must be specific. Vague statements such as \"someday becoming a public company\" will not count. 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"author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.402986Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.817108Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-17T19:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37164, "title": "Will Amazon still list a 12-pack of Coca-Cola as \"SNAP EBT eligible\" on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.402986Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-17T19:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-17T19:12:44.790239Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WSJ: [Coke, PepsiCo Lobby to Keep Sugary Sodas in Food-Stamp Program](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-soda-snap-food-stamps-coke-pepsi-9bd9a872)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a 12-page of Coca-Cola at [this link](https://www.amazon.com/Coca-Cola-Soda-Soft-Drink-Pack/dp/B000T9WLTK?ref_=ast_sto_dp&th=1), when accessed by Metaculus from the United States on or after July 1, 2025, is listed using the exact phrase \"SNAP EBT eligible\"(forecasters please note that it *is* listed as such on May 4, 2025). If it is *not* listed as SNAP EBT eligible when checked by Metataculus on or after July 1, 2025, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The link in the resolution criteria is provided for convenience, but if Amazon's primary listing for a 12-pack of canned Coca-Cola appears elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. In order to streamline resolution, synonyms or rephrasings will not count; the phrase must specifically be \"SNAP EBT eligible\".", "post_id": 37842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748034925.848047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748034925.848047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8292509124149094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454658663642979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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in Food-Stamp Program](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/rfk-jr-soda-snap-food-stamps-coke-pepsi-9bd9a872)" }, { "id": 37841, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kneecap-perform-at-glastonbury-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.397720Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.724145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37163, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.397720Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-28T20:09:59.208267Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kneecap officially performs at Glastonbury 2025, scheduled for June 25 to June 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "* If Glastonbury 2025 does not take place before September 1, 2025 this question will be **annulled**.\n* Officially perform is defined as a planned performance as allowed by the festival organisers.\n* Any official performance is considered sufficient for this question. If, for example, one band member is banned from the festival, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the other member(s) perform under the name Kneecap.", "post_id": 37841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748017312.231055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748017312.231055, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6301188408572048 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05868412703184981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6718805327177122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9087605986357024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5976687395478094, 1.1375175873954366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060590796089441686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1917561489620048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00069754105036468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44085659153368545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.52291382915045, 0.304297230269704, 0.0, 0.1790858264428624, 0.0, 1.8298418940161074, 0.6338162109370695, 0.0, 0.7541212514821088, 0.0, 1.7332008244102441, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8942180920825968, 0.3915107710373727, 1.389072846549451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2853515621283832, 0.0, 0.07066464007099293, 0.5633522238557361, 0.0, 0.12595925847878922, 0.0, 0.395506114628133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25051740141682394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16714435327428795, 0.9457962723934501, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 38.836294640198574, "peer_score": 6.227184631703227, "coverage": 0.9866271262367566, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866271262367566, "spot_peer_score": 6.960246429537375, "spot_baseline_score": 40.053792958372874, "baseline_archived_score": 38.836294640198574, "peer_archived_score": 6.227184631703227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.960246429537375, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.053792958372874 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup." }, { "id": 37837, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-reported-by-the-national-ufo-reporting-center-exceed-400-for-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.242795Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.718189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-24T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T02:52:45.908726Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 37159, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 400 for June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-16T20:46:14.242795Z", "open_time": "2025-05-23T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:24:09.082375Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. 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