Sudan Community

10 Followers

17 Questions

Moderated by MoEL

1 comment

10 forecasters

Will any peer-reviewed paper or major-organization publication issued in 2026 estimate Sudan war excess mortality (direct + indirect) at more than 200,000?

45%chance

5% this week

1 comment

6 forecasters

Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

8%chance

0 comments

2 forecasters

How many internally displaced people will Sudan have on January 31, 2026?

community

10.8M People

result

9.33M People

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

17 forecasters

Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?

resultNo

0 comments

Will the next IPC Sudan acute food insecurity analysis classify at least one area in Famine (IPC Phase 5)?

%chance

0 comments

3 forecasters

How many Sudanese refugees and asylum-seekers will be registered with UNHCR in Egypt as of 31 August 2026?

Current estimate

815k People

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

5 forecasters

What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024?

community

2.96M

result

3.171054M

0 comments

1 forecaster

Will the Rapid Support Forces capture El Obeid (North Kordofan capital) by each of the following dates?

By 31 October 2026

Upcoming

By 31 January 2027

Upcoming

By 31 March 2027

Upcoming

1 comment

14 forecasters

Will Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti" be publicly confirmed to have met in person at any point during 2026?

37.6%chance

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?

resultYes

1 comment

2 forecasters

How many cumulative suspected cholera cases will be reported in the next WHO Sudan Health Cluster bulletin?

community

199k Cases

result

122.108k Cases

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

5 comments

1 forecaster

What percentage of UN's 2025 Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan funding requirement will be met?

community

34.5%

result

36%

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

2 forecasters

Will the SAF maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?

resultYes

0 comments

2 forecasters

How many of Sudan's 18 state capitals will be under RSF control or active dispute on December 31, 2025?

community

7.18 State capitals

result

7 State capitals

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

6 comments

12 forecasters

Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?

resultNo

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

5 forecasters

What percentage of the Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2024 budget will be funded by December 31, 2024?

community

62.1

result

63.9