Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
Question
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction
1.13 score
(0.887 score - 1.4 score)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.8873 | — |
| median | 1.132 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.397 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2 | 1.5% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024