Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
Question
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
1.17 score
(0.98 score - 1.39 score)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.9804 | — |
| median | 1.173 | — |
| upper 75% | 1.395 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >2 | 2.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
09 Mar 2027
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
58.8
What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?
22.7
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
When will an AI achieve an score of 1.5 or higher in the RE-bench at any time budget between 8h and 32h?
09 Mar 2027
What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?
58.8
What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?
22.7