Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
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10 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
50%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?
16 Oct 2027
(24 Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
16 Oct 2027
(24 Oct 2026 - Nov 2031)
3 forecasters
When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
>Jun 2036
(>Jun 2036 - >Jun 2036)
1 forecaster
Will the US government maintain a public list of incidents related to AI safety on January 1, 2030?
50% chance
42