Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
Question
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
Total Forecasters9
Community Prediction
40%
(25% - 65%)
Make a Prediction
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
