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- February 19, 2021
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Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
5771 predictions on 1528 questions (779 resolved)
Comments
2264 comments on 830 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- AI & Cybersecurity
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Beginner Tournament 🔰
- AI Policy
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Horizons
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
9969 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Environment – Climate (124)
- Economy – US – Economic Indicators (113)
- Industry – Transportation (107)
- Environment – Climate – Climate Tipping Points Round 1 (68)
- Economy – US (54)
Popular Questions
- Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023? (1828 forecasts)
- Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) (856 forecasts)
- By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points? (457 forecasts)
- Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? (376 forecasts)
- Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? (373 forecasts)