Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

Question

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Model Autonomy?

Resolved:Yes

1 comment1

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction

99.9%

(95% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

1.3

Community Baseline Score

7.9

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 4, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 9, 2024

AI 2025 Forecasting Survey

Artificial Intelligence

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Observer (NY)•Aug 21, 2025

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Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

60%