David Mathers' Community

11 Followers

15 Questions

Moderated by DavidA.B.Mathers

3 comments

10 forecasters

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

50%chance

4 comments

16 forecasters

When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

community

07 Jun 2026

result

07 Apr 2026 21:17 UTC

10 comments

17 forecasters

When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus

community

13 Jul 2027

result

09 Feb 2026 10:55 UTC

3 comments

23 forecasters

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

35%chance

4 comments

11 forecasters

When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]

community

02 Aug 2025

result

12 Jun 2025 UTC

1 comment

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)

community

result

25 Oct 2024 08:00 UTC

4 comments

4 forecasters

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

community

08 Jul 2026

result

20 Dec 2024 12:15 UTC

0 comments

5 forecasters

When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?

Current estimate

Oct 2040

2 comments

1 forecaster

When will models hit 97.5% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

Annulled

2 comments

2 forecasters

What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.

Current estimate

28.4%

0 comments

3 forecasters

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Current estimate

13 May 2026

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?

30%chance

1 comment

4 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

26 Oct 2026

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

01 Sep 2026

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Current estimate

5807 TWh