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David Mathers' Community
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DavidA.B.Mathers
When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?
Oct 2036
Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)
25%
chance
When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]
result
12 Jun 2025
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
07 Sep 2025
When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)
02 Jan 2026
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)
What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?
6645 TWh
Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?
42%
chance
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
12 Jan 2026
What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.
22.7%
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