David Mathers' Community

11 Followers

15 Questions

Moderated by DavidA.B.Mathers

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?

22%chance

8% this week

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

02 Jun 2026

0 comments

3 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

22 Dec 2025

3 comments

8 forecasters

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

42%chance

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

25%chance

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Current estimate

6645 TWh

0 comments

5 forecasters

When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?

Current estimate

Oct 2040

1 comment

15 forecasters

When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

Current estimate

17 Mar 2026

4 comments

11 forecasters

When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]

community

02 Aug 2025

result

12 Jun 2025

0 comments

3 forecasters

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

Current estimate

13 May 2026