David Mathers' Community

9 Followers

15 Questions

Moderated by DavidA.B.Mathers

2 comments

1 forecaster

What % of prime labor age (29-54) US citizens will be employed after an AI growth explosion.

Current estimate

22.7%

0 comments

4 forecasters

When will the market for industrial robots reach $100 trillion in size?

Current estimate

Oct 2036

0 comments

3 forecasters

What will be total US power consumption in terrawatt hours in 2031?

Current estimate

6645 TWh

4 comments

11 forecasters

When will models hit 75% on SWE-Bench [Edit: Verified version]

community

02 Aug 2025

result

12 Jun 2025

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will US government forbid an AI training run outside the US for national security reasons by 2038?

42%chance

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve "yes" in ambiguous cases)

25%chance

1 comment

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 2 AI (human-level reasoners)

community

result

25 Oct 2024 08:00

1 comment

15 forecasters

When will models hit 90% on SWE-Bench (Verified Version)

Current estimate

07 Jan 2026

0 comments

3 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

07 Sep 2025

4 comments

4 forecasters

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

community

08 Jul 2026

result

20 Dec 2024 12:15