Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
Question
Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication
Total Forecasters2
Community Prediction
05 Nov 2026
(07 Dec 2025 - 16 Oct 2027)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 07 Dec 2025 | — |
| median | 05 Nov 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 16 Oct 2027 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2066 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2065
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2066
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 15, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Sep 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2065
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2066
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 15, 2024