By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Resolved:20 Dec 2024 12:15

4 comments4

Total Forecasters4

Community Prediction

08 Jul 2026

(27 Jun 2025 - 05 Mar 2028)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2199
community	27 Jun 2025	08 Jul 2026	05 Mar 2028	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	27 Jun 2025	—
median	08 Jul 2026	—
upper 75%	05 Mar 2028	—
Upper bound
>2199	0.1%	—

What was the final result?20 Dec 2024 12:15

Community Peer Score

0.0

Authors:

DavidMathers

Opened:

Jul 24, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2199

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2200

Spot Scoring Time:

Jul 27, 2024

David Mathers' Community

Artificial Intelligence

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

05 Nov 2025

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

22.6

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

Dec 2030