Question

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction2025-10-30

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My Prediction

community

<2024-10-01

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-01-01

...

5.1%

2025-05-16 10:23

2025-10-30 00:48

2026-06-06 01:19

1.1%

Authors:

Jacob314

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

2027-06-19

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jacob314

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

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By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

2027-06-19

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

43%

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.6

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When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

Make a Prediction

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

Comments

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

By what year will an AI achieve at least 85% on Francois Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus?

Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?