Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
Question
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)
Total Forecasters2
Community Prediction
15 Jul 2025
(15 Apr 2025 - 29 Oct 2025)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 15 Apr 2025 | — |
| median | 15 Jul 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 29 Oct 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2055 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2045
Scheduled resolution:Feb 9, 2046
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 24, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Aug 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2045
Scheduled resolution:Feb 9, 2046
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 24, 2024
