Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
Question
When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?
Total Forecasters2
Community Prediction
12 Jan 2026
(23 Jul 2025 - 17 Aug 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 23 Jul 2025 | — |
| median | 12 Jan 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 17 Aug 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2064 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2064
Scheduled resolution:Feb 13, 2065
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Aug 20, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2064
Scheduled resolution:Feb 13, 2065
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2024