Contributed by the David Mathers' Community community.
Question
When Will an AI be Amongst the Best Forecasters on Metaculus
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
24 Jan 2028
(18 Jul 2026 - 26 Dec 2029)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 18 Jul 2026 | — |
| median | 24 Jan 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | 26 Dec 2029 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Jan 2034 | 2.0% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Sep 11, 2024
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:May 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 14, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Sep 11, 2024
Closes:Feb 1, 2034
Scheduled resolution:May 31, 2034
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 14, 2024