Bright Line Watch Tournament

50 Followers

25 Questions

Moderated by JohnCarey

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

10 comments

115 forecasters

Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?

92%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

3 comments

130 forecasters

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

3%chance

1.6% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

139 forecasters

Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?

5%chance

3% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

148 forecasters

Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?

0.1%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

33 comments

158 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

5%chance

2% this week

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

105 forecasters

Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

0.5%chance

36 comments

206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance

2 comments

1k forecasters

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

40%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

142 forecasters

Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?

35%chance

18 comments

1.2k forecasters

Will real housing prices in the US increase more in 2025 compared to 2024?

43%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

19 comments

138 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

11%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

15 comments

161 forecasters

Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?

6%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

1 comment

113 forecasters

Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?

7%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

0 comments

112 forecasters

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

2%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

4 comments

141 forecasters

Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?

75%chance

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

9 comments

106 forecasters

Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?

67%chance