Forecasting AI Futures

2 Followers

11 Questions

Moderated by anestrandalvin

74 comments

627 forecasters

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

Current estimate

24 Apr 2028

49 comments

332 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Current estimate

32.3 months

4 comments

34 forecasters

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

78%chance

3 comments

22 forecasters

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

2025result: No

203016%

203525%

11 comments

140 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

2%chance

1 comment

26 forecasters

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

204050%

203540%

203026%

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

12 Jan 2026

0 comments

3 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

07 Sep 2025

3 comments

93 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

12%chance

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Your forecast68%

Your forecast of Crowd Median65%