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Questions

Forecasting AI Futures

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11 Questions

Moderated by anestrandalvin

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Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Your forecast68%

Your forecast of Crowd Median65%

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?