Forecasting AI Futures

2 Followers

11 Questions

Moderated by anestrandalvin

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Your forecast

68%

Your forecast of Crowd Median

65%

77 comments

644 forecasters

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

Current estimate

18 Nov 2027

2 comments

27 forecasters

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

2025

result: No

2030

25%

2035

30%

2040

39%

1 comment

33 forecasters

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

2040

45%

2035

36%

2030

15%

2025

result: No

51 comments

353 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Current estimate

29.4 months

11 comments

166 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1%chance

4 comments

36 forecasters

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

85%chance

1 comment

5 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

13 Jul 2027

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

01 Sep 2026

3 comments

96 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

11%chance

18 comments

79 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

16%chance