Forecasting AI Futures

2 Followers

11 Questions

Moderated by anestrandalvin

1 comment

32 forecasters

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

2040

45%

2035

36%

2030

15%

2025

result: No

2 comments

25 forecasters

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

2025

result: No

2030

15%

2035

25%

2040

39%

4 comments

35 forecasters

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

87%chance

51 comments

348 forecasters

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Current estimate

34.7 months

1 comment

5 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 3 AI (agents that can reliable execute tasks over several days)

Current estimate

13 Jul 2027

0 comments

2 forecasters

When will it be reported (in mainstream media) that Open AI thinks they have achieved level 4 AI (AI capable of innovation)?

Current estimate

01 Sep 2026

11 comments

163 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?

1%chance

18 comments

78 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a nationalized organization?

16%chance

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

Your forecast

79%

Your forecast of Crowd Median

65%

3 comments

96 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a government project?

11%chance

76 comments

640 forecasters

When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?

Current estimate

07 Feb 2028