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Question

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

35
47
Total Forecasters281
Community Prediction45.8

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<3.3e-2
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>600
...
...
...
...
...
2.4%
12.31
45.76
156.6
11.7%
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Progress Essay Contest
AGI Outcomes
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Ethics
Artificial intelligence
Computer science
Philosophy
Superintelligence
Robin Hanson
Nobel Prize
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Artificial general intelligence

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