Question
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
Total Forecasters322
Community Prediction
28.7 months
(8.58 months - 107 months)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <0.033 | 1.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 8.579 | — |
| median | 28.66 | — |
| upper 75% | 106.9 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >600 | 11.2% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Dec 30, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2150
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 31, 2021