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Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?
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3 forecasters
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| Company, nationalizion type | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization" | 75% | |||
Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization" | 34% | |||
OpenAI, "soft nationalization" | 25% | |||
xAI, "soft nationalization" | 25% | |||
Anthropic, "soft nationalization" | 22% | |||
Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization" | 20% | |||
Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization" | 9% | |||
OpenAI, "hard nationalization" | 3% | |||
Anthropic, "hard nationalization" | 3% | |||
Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization" | 3% | |||
Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization" | 2% | |||
xAI, "hard nationalization" | 2% | |||
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 31, 2030
Authors:
Opened:Dec 21, 2024
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 31, 2030
