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Questions

American National Security Policy class

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5 Questions

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2 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

next month

%chance

2 forecasters

Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before December 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 weeks

%chance

3 forecasters

Will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal commercial traffic before December 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 weeks

%chance

1 forecaster

Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 weeks

%chance

1 forecaster

Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 weeks

%chance