What will be the average production cost per kg of cell-cultured chicken cell biomass at the end of the following years (between 2026-2051) across all large-scale plants in the world?
Which is the better approach to measuring & comparing LMIC interventions affecting multiple outcomes? (State the probability either is better) (WELL_04)
[A] Use a single overall WELLBY-based measure (potentially imperfect)
Hidden
[B] Directly measure each dimension separately, then convert and combine
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"
Cost ratio (linear WELLBY use ÷ best feasible measure use) to achieve the welfare improvement choosing policy with the linear WELLBY measure relative to best feasible measure?
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "How much more costly ... to achieve the same welfare improvement using the linear WELLBY measure (vs. the best other feasible measure)?
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Would [A] using a single WELLBY-based measure yield a better allocation choice than [B] measuring each dimension separately and combining [B]? (WELL_04)"