Share Your 2024 Forecasts: Our ACX Contest With Scott Alexander Closes Sunday

By christian on Jan. 19, 2024, 12:26 a.m. GMT

2024 In Focus

Forecast the events that will define the year ahead, in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest:

This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament.

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Metaculus Officially Launches API

By christian on Feb. 15, 2023, 8:13 p.m. GMT

We have officially launched the Metaculus API, providing access to a rich, quantitative database of aggregate forecasts on 7000+ questions so forecasters, data scientists, and developers can explore, analyze, and build.

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New Feature: Reaffirming Predictions

By christian on Feb. 14, 2023, 9:15 p.m. GMT

We've introduced the ability to reaffirm predictions—for when you haven't changed your mind but want to record your current forecast.

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Metaculus Publishes 'Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years'

By MetaculusOutlooks on Feb. 2, 2023, 12:06 a.m. GMT

We've released a new forecasting report probing the next 100 years of technological development, social progress, and global development on measures developed by Our World in Data.

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Metaculus, VDH, and UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute Announce the Launch of the Keep Virginia Safe II Forecasting Tournament

By MetaculusOutlooks on Jan. 30, 2023, 7 p.m. GMT

Reputation-Based Community Forecasting Has Informed COVID-19 Modeling and Planning Efforts in VA Since 2021’s Inaugural Tournament

Keep Virginia Safe II Will Award $20,000 in Prizes to Forecasters Helping to Predict COVID-19’s Likely Epidemiological Trajectory and the Impact of Variants

January 30th, 2023

Richmond, VA – Today, the Virginia Department of Health, the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute, and Metaculus announce the opening of the Keep Virginia Safe II Forecasting Tournament, a year-long competition building on previous collaborative efforts to deliver actionable, informative forecasts that support the decision making of public health officials in the state of Virginia.

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Metaculus Launches Climate Tipping Points Tournament With the Federation of American Scientists

By MetaculusOutlooks on Jan. 27, 2023, 6:05 p.m. GMT

FAS and Metaculus are Using Forecasting to Support Better Climate Policy

January 27, 2023

Today the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is teaming up with Metaculus to kick off the Climate Tipping Points Tournament, a virtual forecasting tournament aimed at helping policymakers make better informed decisions about climate change policies.

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Metaculus Year in Review: 2022

By christian on Jan. 6, 2023, 2:16 a.m. GMT

2022 was a year of incredible progress, growth, and change at Metaculus. Read the year-in-review CEO letter by Gaia Dempsey here.

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January 5th, 2023 Beginner Tournament

By christian on Jan. 5, 2023, 9:30 p.m. GMT

New to Metaculus?

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Announcing the ACX 2023 Prediction Contest!

By AlexL on Dec. 22, 2022, 10:43 p.m. GMT

Each winter, Scott Alexander makes predictions about the year to come.

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