We have officially launched the Metaculus API, providing access to a rich, quantitative database of aggregate forecasts on 7000+ questions so forecasters, data scientists, and developers can explore, analyze, and build.
By christian on Feb. 15, 2023, 8:13 p.m. GMT
By christian on Feb. 14, 2023, 9:15 p.m. GMT
We've introduced the ability to reaffirm predictions—for when you haven't changed your mind but want to record your current forecast.
By MetaculusOutlooks on Feb. 2, 2023, 12:06 a.m. GMT
We've released a new forecasting report probing the next 100 years of technological development, social progress, and global development on measures developed by Our World in Data.
Metaculus, VDH, and UVA’s Biocomplexity Institute Announce the Launch of the Keep Virginia Safe II Forecasting Tournament
By MetaculusOutlooks on Jan. 30, 2023, 7 p.m. GMT
Reputation-Based Community Forecasting Has Informed COVID-19 Modeling and Planning Efforts in VA Since 2021’s Inaugural Tournament
Keep Virginia Safe II Will Award $20,000 in Prizes to Forecasters Helping to Predict COVID-19’s Likely Epidemiological Trajectory and the Impact of Variants
January 30th, 2023
Richmond, VA – Today, the Virginia Department of Health, the University of Virginia’s Biocomplexity Institute, and Metaculus announce the opening of the Keep Virginia Safe II Forecasting Tournament, a year-long competition building on previous collaborative efforts to deliver actionable, informative forecasts that support the decision making of public health officials in the state of Virginia.
By MetaculusOutlooks on Jan. 27, 2023, 6:05 p.m. GMT
FAS and Metaculus are Using Forecasting to Support Better Climate Policy
January 27, 2023
Today the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is teaming up with Metaculus to kick off the Climate Tipping Points Tournament, a virtual forecasting tournament aimed at helping policymakers make better informed decisions about climate change policies.
By christian on Jan. 6, 2023, 2:16 a.m. GMT
2022 was a year of incredible progress, growth, and change at Metaculus. Read the year-in-review CEO letter by Gaia Dempsey here.
By christian on Jan. 5, 2023, 9:30 p.m. GMT
New to Metaculus?
By AlexL on Dec. 22, 2022, 10:43 p.m. GMT
Each winter, Scott Alexander makes predictions about the year to come.
By AlexL on Dec. 6, 2022, 10 p.m. GMT
What will be some of the near-term milestones in spaceflight and space exploration?