By juancambeiro on Jan. 8, 2021, 1:54 p.m. GMT
Much like the start of 2020, when we were unaware of the extent of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to inadequate diagnostic testing, we are beginning 2021 almost totally in the dark about the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 mutations that have come to light.
By Tamay on Dec. 15, 2020, 5:36 p.m. GMT
Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence.
Founded in 2015 by physics professors, Metaculus has grown steadily while other forecasting platforms have come and gone. An active community of thousands of expert forecasters and a state-of the art aggregation methodology means that Metaculus Predictions—while not a perfect predictor of the future—are right much of the time.
In 2020, Metaculus launched an initiative to bring its forecasting capabilities directly to organizations and decision-makers. With more accurate results than any other known forecasting system (we are proud to share our track record publicly) and uncanny timing (a highly uncertain political climate and COVID-19 leading to global interest in forecasting tools) this initiative has led to the expansion of the platform, attracting new funding, user growth, and new leadership. We are assembling an ace team to tackle the massive opportunities that lie ahead.
By Juan on Nov. 17, 2020, 3:35 p.m. GMT
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, Metaculus launched multiple efforts aiming to provide timely forecasts on various facets of the pandemic, with the ultimate goal of informing actions taken by decision makers and the general public.
Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S.
By dan on June 2, 2020, 10:06 a.m. GMT
The Metaculus prediction platform began participating in the COVID-19 Expert Surveys on Survey 10.
By Anthony on Aug. 4, 2019, 3:20 p.m. GMT
The domain system is a big under-the-hood improvement that has quietly gone live, but will start to be used.
Metaculus improves the decision-making capacity of organizations and individuals by providing an open, reputation-based platform where people can improve their predictive abilities and organizations can calibrate their thinking according to calinrated and aggregated probabilities of future events.
Metaculus is in the process of adding new functionalities and growing the site in exciting ways. We want to bring onto the team a full-stack web developer who loves Metaculus and wants to see it thrive. We’re a small team, so you have a real opportunity here to influence the direction of the site and to make a big impact.