Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making Tournament Round 8

By christian on April 8, 2022, 10:40 p.m. GMT

This round focuses forecasting efforts on daily case count highs and lows, their timing, and hospitalizations. Your predictions of the most likely scenarios support pandemic modeling and policy decisions in Virginia, helping the public health officials who are combating the spread of COVID-19. $2,500 in prizes will go to top forecasters.

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Metaculus is hiring Analytical Storytellers

By christian on July 23, 2021, 8:35 p.m. GMT


We’ve been working steadily and quietly on an initiative that will create new ways for our community’s forecasts to engage with and inform policy and institutional decision-making, and educate and attract budding forecasting fans.

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Metaculus Economic Indicator Report

By AlyssaStevens on June 12, 2021, 9:52 p.m. GMT

This economic indicator forecasting project began as an initiative to understand how well Metaculus performed in comparison with other prediction sources.

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We're Hiring: Three New Open Positions

By Gaia on March 25, 2021, 12:54 a.m. GMT


I’m very excited to announce that we have three new open positions at Metaculus:

Below is a description of each of the roles, along with some background and context for each. Future teammates: we can’t wait to meet you!

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Open letter: Urgent need for expanded surveillance and forecasting of novel SAR-CoV-2 variants

By juancambeiro on Jan. 8, 2021, 1:54 p.m. GMT

Much like the start of 2020, when we were unaware of the extent of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to inadequate diagnostic testing, we are beginning 2021 almost totally in the dark about the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 mutations that have come to light.

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Forecasting AI Progress — Long-horizons, Out-of-Sample Questions, and the Dreyfus Prize

By Tamay on Dec. 15, 2020, 5:36 p.m. GMT

Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence.

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Metaculus is hiring a product manager!

By Gaia on Nov. 17, 2020, 7:02 p.m. GMT


Founded in 2015 by physics professors, Metaculus has grown steadily while other forecasting platforms have come and gone. An active community of thousands of expert forecasters and a state-of the art aggregation methodology means that Metaculus Predictions—while not a perfect predictor of the future—are right much of the time.

In 2020, Metaculus launched an initiative to bring its forecasting capabilities directly to organizations and decision-makers. With more accurate results than any other known forecasting system (we are proud to share our track record publicly) and uncanny timing (a highly uncertain political climate and COVID-19 leading to global interest in forecasting tools) this initiative has led to the expansion of the platform, attracting new funding, user growth, and new leadership. We are assembling an ace team to tackle the massive opportunities that lie ahead.

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Forecasting COVID-19: Vaccines, Testing, Economic Impact

By Juan on Nov. 17, 2020, 3:35 p.m. GMT

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, Metaculus launched multiple efforts aiming to provide timely forecasts on various facets of the pandemic, with the ultimate goal of informing actions taken by decision makers and the general public.

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Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

By Juan on Oct. 20, 2020, 11 p.m. GMT


Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S.

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