By christian on April 8, 2022, 10:40 p.m. GMT
We’ve been working steadily and quietly on an initiative that will create new ways for our community’s forecasts to engage with and inform policy and institutional decision-making, and educate and attract budding forecasting fans.
By AlyssaStevens on June 12, 2021, 9:52 p.m. GMT
This economic indicator forecasting project began as an initiative to understand how well Metaculus performed in comparison with other prediction sources.
I’m very excited to announce that we have three new open positions at Metaculus:
Public Policy Data Scientist
Below is a description of each of the roles, along with some background and context for each. Future teammates: we can’t wait to meet you!
By juancambeiro on Jan. 8, 2021, 1:54 p.m. GMT
Much like the start of 2020, when we were unaware of the extent of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to inadequate diagnostic testing, we are beginning 2021 almost totally in the dark about the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 mutations that have come to light.
By Tamay on Dec. 15, 2020, 5:36 p.m. GMT
Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence.
Founded in 2015 by physics professors, Metaculus has grown steadily while other forecasting platforms have come and gone. An active community of thousands of expert forecasters and a state-of the art aggregation methodology means that Metaculus Predictions—while not a perfect predictor of the future—are right much of the time.
In 2020, Metaculus launched an initiative to bring its forecasting capabilities directly to organizations and decision-makers. With more accurate results than any other known forecasting system (we are proud to share our track record publicly) and uncanny timing (a highly uncertain political climate and COVID-19 leading to global interest in forecasting tools) this initiative has led to the expansion of the platform, attracting new funding, user growth, and new leadership. We are assembling an ace team to tackle the massive opportunities that lie ahead.
By Juan on Nov. 17, 2020, 3:35 p.m. GMT
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, Metaculus launched multiple efforts aiming to provide timely forecasts on various facets of the pandemic, with the ultimate goal of informing actions taken by decision makers and the general public.
Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S.