Open letter: Urgent need for expanded surveillance and forecasting of novel SAR-CoV-2 variants

By juancambeiro on Jan. 8, 2021, 1:54 p.m. GMT

Much like the start of 2020, when we were unaware of the extent of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 due to inadequate diagnostic testing, we are beginning 2021 almost totally in the dark about the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 mutations that have come to light.

Forecasting AI Progress — Long-horizons, Out-of-Sample Questions, and the Dreyfus Prize

By Tamay on Dec. 15, 2020, 5:36 p.m. GMT

Forecasting AI Progress is a large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence.

Metaculus is hiring a product manager!

By fianxu on Nov. 17, 2020, 7:02 p.m. GMT

Founded in 2015 by physics professors, Metaculus has grown steadily while other forecasting platforms have come and gone. An active community of thousands of expert forecasters and a state-of the art aggregation methodology means that Metaculus Predictions—while not a perfect predictor of the future—are right much of the time.

In 2020, Metaculus launched an initiative to bring its forecasting capabilities directly to organizations and decision-makers. With more accurate results than any other known forecasting system (we are proud to share our track record publicly) and uncanny timing (a highly uncertain political climate and COVID-19 leading to global interest in forecasting tools) this initiative has led to the expansion of the platform, attracting new funding, user growth, and new leadership. We are assembling an ace team to tackle the massive opportunities that lie ahead.

Forecasting COVID-19: Vaccines, Testing, Economic Impact

By Juan on Nov. 17, 2020, 3:35 p.m. GMT

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, Metaculus launched multiple efforts aiming to provide timely forecasts on various facets of the pandemic, with the ultimate goal of informing actions taken by decision makers and the general public.

Results of 2020 U.S. Election Risks Survey

By Juan on Oct. 20, 2020, 11 p.m. GMT

Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S.

A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts

By dan on June 2, 2020, 10:06 a.m. GMT

The Metaculus prediction platform began participating in the COVID-19 Expert Surveys on Survey 10.

The Bentham prize

By Tamay on Jan. 15, 2020, 6:58 p.m. GMT
We will be awarding bi-weekly prizes of $300,$200 and \$100 as first, second and third prize to the commenters who make the most valuable contributions to forecasting the questions in Metaculus' Animal Welfare series.

Introducing the domain system

By Anthony on Aug. 4, 2019, 3:20 p.m. GMT

The domain system is a big under-the-hood improvement that has quietly gone live, but will start to be used.