Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- October 16, 2015
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
192 predictions on 145 questions (129 resolved)
Comments
70 comments on 54 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- 🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- Conditional Cup
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Effective Institutions Project
- Chinese AI Chips
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
8133 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology (19)
- Scientific Discoveries (7)
- Finance – markets (7)
- Finance (4)
- Environment – Climate (4)
Popular Questions
- Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030? (7014 forecasts)
- Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? (900 forecasts)
- Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? (458 forecasts)
- Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019? (436 forecasts)
- To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B? (407 forecasts)