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Member Since
- January 21, 2016
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Forecaster Stats
Level
29 (AIXI.1.9)
Predictions
25340 predictions on 2209 questions (1112 resolved)
Comments
2523 comments on 854 questions
Rank
13th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- 🔰 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
4171 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Geopolitics – Armed Conflict (30)
- Ukraine (16)
- Politics – US (13)
- Geopolitics (13)
- Politics (12)
Popular Questions
- Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? (643 forecasts)
- What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza? (562 forecasts)
- [Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (417 forecasts)
- Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021? (384 forecasts)
- Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021? (360 forecasts)