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- August 11, 2016
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Forecaster Stats
Predictions
2382 predictions on 825 questions (447 resolved)
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184 comments on 116 questions
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3494 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Politics – US (16)
- Effective Altruism (14)
- Politics – European (7)
- Environment – Climate (5)
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (4)
Popular Questions
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050? (598 forecasts)
- Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? (514 forecasts)
- If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? (476 forecasts)
- If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? (402 forecasts)
- If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen? (355 forecasts)