Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- August 11, 2016
Bio
Website
{{err}}
Metaculus Supporter
Supporter Since
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
Change your username
Cost: {{user.username_change_cost}} tachyons
You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.
Brand new users can change their names for free. After a few days it will cost tachyons.
Forecaster Stats
Level
15 (Time Lord)
Predictions
2360 predictions on 815 questions (415 resolved)
Comments
181 comments on 115 questions
Rank
60th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
3071 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Politics – US (16)
- Effective Altruism (15)
- Politics – European (7)
- Environment – Climate (5)
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (4)
Popular Questions
- If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name? (402 forecasts)
- Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? (399 forecasts)
- If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024? (374 forecasts)
- How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season? (316 forecasts)
- Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050? (290 forecasts)