modeling predictive predictions calculating contingent forecasts aggregating definitive predictions aggregating probable contingencies modeling precise futures forecasting quantitative contingencies aggregating quantitative estimations assembling contingent futures mapping intelligent insights assembling contingent forecasts mapping the future formulating probable contingencies formulating accurate wisdom computing contingent forecasts generating predictive understanding composing calibrated predictions mapping critical insights mapping contingent futures mapping quantitative wisdom exploring definitive estimations formulating quantitative futures exploring contingent forecasts composing critical insights composing predictive predictions aggregating calibrated understanding modeling predictive wisdom generating accurate insights computing contingent understanding

Profile

username TheFourth
formerly known as
member since May 7, 2018
bio
website {{pctrl.profile.website}}
{{err}}
Save Changes
Metaculus supporter – {{pctrl.supporterName()}}
supporter since {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}

Change your username

Cost: {{user.username_change_cost}} tachyons

You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.

Brand new users can change their names for free. After a few days it will cost tachyons.

required field
usernames don't match
{{err}}

Stats

level 3 (Guesstimator)
predictions 21 predictions on 19 questions (7 resolved)
rank 1065th
achievements