Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- February 9, 2020
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"tachyonsCost" | translate:({tachyons: user.username_change_cost})}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescriptionNewUser" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Predictions
4121 predictions on 1152 questions (389 resolved)
Comments
344 comments on 196 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Global Trends 2022
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- Biosecurity Tournament
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
912 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Effective Altruism (3)
- Metaculus Itself (2)
- Geopolitics (2)
- Scientific Discoveries (1)
- Computer Science – Quantum Computing (1)
Popular Questions
- Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? (633 forecasts)
- Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? (269 forecasts)
- When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU? (242 forecasts)
- When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time? (217 forecasts)
- When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900? (177 forecasts)