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- March 7, 2020
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Forecaster Stats
Predictions
91 predictions on 40 questions (24 resolved)
Comments
35 comments on 14 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Global Trends 2022
- Ukraine Conflict
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Improve the News
- Transparent Replications
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- AI & Cybersecurity
- Considerations
- Space Technology & Climate
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- ⚡Superconductor Frontiers⚡
- Antibody Characterization through Open Science
- Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring
- Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions
- Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
- Israel-Gaza Conflict
- Effective Institutions Project
- Global Pulse Tournament
- Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
731 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (17)
- Computing – Security (9)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (6)
- Effective Altruism (5)
- Geopolitics (4)
Popular Questions
- Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024? (793 forecasts)
- Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31? (310 forecasts)
- Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024? (310 forecasts)
- Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? (273 forecasts)
- Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024? (157 forecasts)