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Member Since
- July 19, 2022
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Forecaster Stats
Level
5 (Augur)
Predictions
156 predictions on 128 questions (94 resolved)
Comments
59 comments on 37 questions
Rank
860th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- AI & Cybersecurity
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- ⚡Superconductor Frontiers⚡
- FluSight Challenge 2023/24
- Antibody Characterization through Open Science
- Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring
- Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions
- Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
2574 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Technology – Space (67)
- Industry – Space (63)
- Geopolitics (12)
- Business (3)
- Geopolitics – Armed Conflict (2)
Popular Questions
- Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 60 minutes before mid-2023? (549 forecasts)
- When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship) (361 forecasts)
- Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? (253 forecasts)
- Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030? (224 forecasts)
- When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) (213 forecasts)