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- July 19, 2022
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Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
156 predictions on 128 questions (93 resolved)
Comments
59 comments on 37 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰 2022Q4 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- AI & Cybersecurity
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
1564 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Technology – Space (67)
- Industry – Space (63)
- Geopolitics (12)
- Business (3)
- Geopolitics – Armed Conflict (2)
Popular Questions
- Will Twitter experience an outage of greater than 60 minutes before mid-2023? (549 forecasts)
- Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025? (161 forecasts)
- Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user? (104 forecasts)
- When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Starship (SpaceX)) (78 forecasts)
- Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024? (60 forecasts)