Effective Date: September 21, 2026
The Metaculus AI Products Privacy Notice referred to in this Supplement is available at https://www.metaculus.com/ai-products-privacy/.
These AI Products Terms (this "Supplement") govern your access to and use of Radiant (a "Covered Product," as defined below), an AI-assisted forecasting and modeling service offered by Metaculus, Inc. ("Metaculus," "we," or "us"). This Supplement is part of, and incorporates by reference, the Metaculus Terms of Use available at https://www.metaculus.com/terms-of-use/ (the "Terms") and the Metaculus Privacy Policy available at https://www.metaculus.com/privacy-policy/ (the "Privacy Policy"), each as supplemented by this document. Capitalized terms not defined here have the meanings given in the Terms.
By creating an account for, signing in to, connecting to, enabling, or using a Covered Product, including through a third-party AI assistant or application, you agree to this Supplement, the Terms, and the Privacy Policy. If you do not agree, do not use the Covered Products. If you are using a Covered Product on behalf of an organization, you represent that you have authority to bind that organization, and "you" refers to both you and the organization.
1.1 "Covered Products" means Radiant, however accessed, including its web interface on metaculus.com and its subdomains, its API, its MCP server, and any plugin, connector, app, or integration through which Metaculus makes it available, together with any other Metaculus product that Metaculus identifies as subject to this Supplement. "Radiant" means the interactive forecasting and modeling service that Metaculus offers under the Radiant name, in which you build models ("maps") of uncertain quantities and run simulations and analyses on them. A reference to a "Covered Product" applies to each Covered Product.
1.2 "Host Platform" means any third-party AI assistant, agent, model, application, or marketplace through which you access a Covered Product, such as Claude, Claude Code, or ChatGPT, and the provider of that platform.
1.3 "Input" means the questions, prompts, text, files, parameters, and other content that you (or a Host Platform acting on your instructions) submit to a Covered Product, including the content of any map you build or edit (such as node titles, descriptions, values, formulas, and imported documents). Input does not include Shared Content.
1.4 "Output" means the forecasts, probabilities, reasoning, explanations, summaries, and other content that a Covered Product generates and returns in response to Input, including simulation results, sensitivity analyses, and AI-generated suggestions and explanations. Output does not include Metaculus Data.
1.5 "Metaculus Data" means questions, community and aggregate forecasts, comments, resolutions, scores, and other data and content from the Metaculus platform, whether accessed directly or reproduced or referenced in Output, and includes Metaculus Content and other users' User Content.
1.6 "Shared Content" means any Input or Output that you elect to publish to the Metaculus platform using a "Share on Metaculus" control or similar feature that Metaculus identifies as making content public. Content that you make visible to others by link, visibility setting, or collaborator invitation without using such a control is not Shared Content and is governed by Section 6.6.
1.7 "Credits" means the prepaid units of usage that Metaculus may sell or grant for use of a Covered Product, including periodic Credit allowances.
1.8 "AI Provider" means a third-party provider of large language models, model routing, web search or research, or related AI services that Metaculus uses to operate the Covered Products.
2.1 The Covered Products are part of the Service.For purposes of the Terms and the Privacy Policy, the "Service" includes each Covered Product wherever and however you access it, including through a Host Platform and whether or not you visit metaculus.com.
2.2 Order of precedence. If this Supplement conflicts with the Terms or the Privacy Policy with respect to a Covered Product, this Supplement controls. In particular, and only with respect to the Covered Products: (a) Input is notUser Content and is governed by Section 6 rather than the "User Content and Activities" section of the Terms; (b) Output is governed by Section 7 rather than the "Proprietary Rights" and "Your License to Use Site Content" sections of the Terms; (c) the restrictions in the Terms on automated use, scripts, and bots, and the requirement that you use the Service only for personal use, are modified by Section 5; and (d) the age requirement in the Terms is replaced by Section 3.1. All other provisions of the Terms, including the Acceptable Use Policy, Disclaimer of Warranties, Limitations of Liability, Indemnity, and Legal Disputes sections, apply to the Covered Products in full.
2.3 Additional terms. Metaculus may post additional terms, documentation, or usage limits for specific features of a Covered Product or for its API or MCP server. Those additional terms are incorporated into this Supplement.
2.4 Separate agreements. If you or your organization has a separate written agreement with Metaculus that covers your use of a Covered Product (for example, a pilot, services, or subscription agreement), that agreement controls over this Supplement to the extent of any conflict.
3.1 Age. You must be at least 16 years old to use a Covered Product. If you are between 16 and the age of majority where you live, you must review this Supplement and the Terms with your parent or guardian, who must agree to them on your behalf, and you may not purchase Credits. The Covered Products are not directed to, and may not be used by, anyone under 16.
3.2 Account and linking.Use of a Covered Product requires an account for that product. Product accounts are separate from accounts on the Metaculus platform at metaculus.com, and the limit in the Terms of one Metaculus account per person applies separately to each Covered Product and to the Metaculus platform. Some Covered Products are available by invitation only, and Metaculus may create your account at your or your organization's request. Use of a Covered Product may also require you to link your account to a Host Platform, or to generate API keys, tokens, or other credentials (" Credentials"). Credentials are personal to you and your account. You may not share, sell, or transfer Credentials, and you are responsible for all activity conducted through your Credentials and through any Host Platform or agent connected to your account, whether or not you specifically directed each action.
3.3 Agent activity. When you connect a Covered Product to a Host Platform or other software agent, that agent may submit Input, consume Output, and take other actions on your behalf. You are responsible for configuring, supervising, and controlling any such agent and for all Input it submits. Metaculus is not responsible for the behavior of any Host Platform or agent, including its interpretation or use of Output.
3.4 Organizations.If you use a Covered Product on behalf of an organization, you are responsible for ensuring that all of the organization's users comply with this Supplement.
4.1 The Covered Products are currently offered as early access or beta services. They are under active development, may contain errors, may be changed, suspended, or discontinued at any time without notice, and may be subject to usage limits, downtime, and loss of data, Input, Output, or Credits. Features described in documentation or marketing may not be available or may work differently than described.
4.2 Metaculus may limit access to a Covered Product, or to particular features, to selected users, regions, or Host Platforms during the early access or beta period, and may transition a Covered Product to a paid or generally available service on notice posted to the Service or sent to you. Section 9 governs any charges.
4.3 Any feedback, suggestions, or ideas you provide about a Covered Product are governed by the "User Content and Activities" section of the Terms as it relates to ideas and concepts, and Metaculus may use them without restriction or compensation. Feedback is not Input.
5.1 License to use the Covered Products. Subject to your compliance with this Supplement and the Terms, Metaculus grants you a limited, non-exclusive, non-transferable, revocable license to access and use the Covered Products, including through their APIs and MCP servers and through supported Host Platforms, for your personal use and for your internal business purposes. Your rights to use Output, including in work product you prepare for others, are set out in Section 7.
5.2 Automated access is permitted through sanctioned interfaces. Notwithstanding the restrictions in the Terms on automated use, scripts, bots, or data-mining, you may access a Covered Product by automated means, including through an AI agent or Host Platform, but only through that product's API, MCP server, or other interface that Metaculus designates for that purpose, and only in compliance with any rate limits, usage limits, and technical documentation that Metaculus publishes. Access to a Covered Product or to Metaculus Data by any other automated means (including scraping the Metaculus website) remains prohibited.
5.3 Restrictions. In addition to the Acceptable Use Policy in the Terms, you may not, and may not permit or direct any agent or Host Platform to:
(a) use a Covered Product or Output to train, fine-tune, evaluate for the purpose of training, or otherwise develop any artificial intelligence or machine learning model, or to build a dataset for those purposes, without Metaculus's prior written permission (for clarity, submitting Output to a Host Platform in the ordinary course of using a Covered Product through that platform is permitted);
(b) use a Covered Product to systematically extract, reconstruct, or replicate Metaculus Data, or to build or contribute to a product or service that competes with Metaculus's forecasting platform or the Covered Products;
(c) resell, sublicense, rent, or provide a Covered Product, or offer Output on demand as a service to third parties, including by wrapping or white-labeling a Covered Product, without Metaculus's prior written permission (for clarity, including Output in reports, analyses, and other work product that you prepare for your clients or your organization is permitted under Section 7.2);
(d) attempt to extract, reverse engineer, or manipulate a Covered Product's system prompts, instructions, model configuration, or safeguards, or submit Input designed to cause a Covered Product to bypass its safeguards, act outside its intended function, or generate content that violates the Terms (including "prompt injection" or "jailbreak" techniques);
(e) circumvent rate limits, usage limits, or Credit requirements, or use multiple accounts or Credentials to do so;
(f) submit Input that contains personal data about others that you do not have the right to disclose, or protected health, financial account, government identifier, or other sensitive personal data, except as the product's documentation expressly permits;
(g) use a Covered Product in any manner that violates the usage policies or terms of the Host Platform through which you access it; or
(h) represent that Output is endorsed by Metaculus, is a Metaculus community forecast, or reflects the views of Metaculus or its community, or remove or alter any notice that Output is AI-generated.
5.4 Metaculus Data.Metaculus Data that a Covered Product surfaces or incorporates in Output remains Metaculus Content or other users' User Content, as applicable, and remains subject to the Terms. Your license under Section 7.2 to use Output does not expand your rights in Metaculus Data beyond those granted in the Terms, except that you may reproduce Metaculus Data to the extent it is incidentally embedded in Output that you are otherwise permitted to use.
6.1 Input is private by default. Unless and until you make it Shared Content, your Input (and the Output generated from it) is not User Content, will not be published or displayed to other users or the public (other than to people you choose to share it with under Section 6.6), will not be indexed or made searchable, and will not be used to generate or adjust Metaculus community forecasts or other Metaculus Data. Metaculus will treat unshared Input and Output as confidential information of yours, subject to Section 6.3, and will not be liable to you for any use or disclosure that Section 6.3 permits.
6.2 Your rights. As between you and Metaculus, you retain all rights you have in your Input. You represent that you have the right to submit your Input and that doing so does not violate any law or the rights of any person.
6.3 Limited license to Metaculus.You grant Metaculus and its service providers (including AI Providers and Host Platforms to the extent they process Input on Metaculus's behalf) a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free license to host, store, copy, transmit, process, and create derivative works of your Input and the resulting Output solely to the extent necessary to:
(a) operate the Covered Products and provide Output to you, including transmitting Input, together with relevant Metaculus Data and system instructions, to AI Providers, and including hosting and displaying Input and Output to the people you choose to share it with under Section 6.6;
(b) maintain the security and integrity of the Covered Products, detect and prevent abuse, fraud, and violations of this Supplement, and comply with law and enforce our rights;
(c) provide you with support that you request; and
(d) improve, evaluate, and develop the Covered Products and related Metaculus services, using Input and Output only in de-identified or aggregated form that does not identify you or your account and is not displayed publicly.
6.4 No training of third-party models. Metaculus does not permit AI Providers to use your Input or Output to train or improve their models, and uses AI Providers only under terms that prohibit such use and, for the model providers, limit their retention of Input and Output to the periods described in the AI Products Privacy Notice.
6.5 Human review. Metaculus personnel and contractors may access unshared Input and Output only as needed for the purposes in Section 6.3, and Metaculus limits such access to personnel who need it for those purposes and who are bound by confidentiality obligations.
6.6 Sharing and visibility.A Covered Product may let you share Input and Output with others without making it Shared Content, for example by sharing a link, by changing the visibility setting of a map (such as making it visible to other members of your workspace or to anyone on the internet), or by inviting collaborators to view or edit it. If you do so: (a) Metaculus may host and display that Input and Output to the people you have chosen, and may allow them to edit it where you permit editing, and the license in Section 6.3 extends to those purposes; (b) the content remains subject to this Section 6 and does not become User Content, and Section 6.1 continues to apply except as to the disclosure you have chosen; (c) anyone you share with may view, copy, and further share what you have shared, and Metaculus cannot recall copies they have made; (d) some sharing methods, such as links, may not be revocable other than by deleting the content, as the product's documentation describes; and (e) you are responsible for the people you share with and for having the right to share any Input that contains information about others. Content you make visible to anyone on the internet is public in fact even though it is not User Content, and the confidentiality commitment in Section 6.1 does not apply to it while it is so visible.
6.7 Sharing to Metaculus.If you elect to make Input or Output Shared Content, then, effective upon sharing, (a) the Shared Content becomes User Content and is licensed to Metaculus and other users under, and otherwise governed by, the "User Content and Activities" section of the Terms; (b) Section 6.1 no longer applies to it; and (c) you understand that Shared Content is public and may be viewed, copied, and used by anyone, and that removing it from your account or deleting your account may not remove copies that others have made. With respect to any Output included in Shared Content, your representation in the Terms that you "own the User Content" is modified to a representation that you have the right under Section 7 to publish that Output. Sharing does not affect the private status of any Input or Output that you did not share.
6.8 Deletion. You may delete unshared Input and Output from your account through your account settings where the product offers that feature, or by contacting support@metaculus.com. Deleted content will be removed from active systems within 30 days and from backups on our normal backup rotation, subject to retention for the purposes in Section 6.3(b) and as described in the AI Products Privacy Notice. Retention and deletion of Shared Content are governed by the Terms and the Privacy Policy.
6.9 Survival. Sections 6.1, 6.4, and 6.5 survive termination of your account to the extent Metaculus continues to hold your unshared Input or Output.
7.1 Ownership. As between you and Metaculus, and subject to Sections 5.4 and 7.3, Metaculus assigns to you all of its right, title, and interest, if any, in and to the Output generated in response to your Input, effective upon generation. You are responsible for the Output and for your use of it.
7.2 Permitted use.You may use, reproduce, modify, and distribute Output for any lawful purpose, including internal business use, commercial use, and inclusion in reports, analyses, and other work product that you prepare for your clients or your organization, subject to this Supplement. If you publish or distribute Output externally, you must not remove any indication that it was generated by a Covered Product or misrepresent its source, and you must comply with Section 5.3(h). Attribution such as "Built with Metaculus Radiant" is requested but not required.
7.3 Metaculus's retained rights.Because Output is generated by software and draws on Metaculus Data and AI Providers' models, you acknowledge that (a) Output is not unique to you, and a Covered Product may generate the same or similar Output for other users, and nothing in this Supplement restricts Metaculus from doing so or from using such other Output in any way; (b) Metaculus retains the license in Section 6.3 with respect to Output; and (c) Metaculus and its licensors retain all rights in the Covered Products, the models, prompts, and system instructions used to generate Output, and Metaculus Data.
7.4 Third-party content. Output may summarize, quote, or link to third-party content such as news reports and public data. Metaculus makes no representation that your use of such third-party content is permitted, and you are responsible for complying with any applicable third-party rights and licenses.
7.5 Output is not Metaculus Content or a community forecast. Output is not a Metaculus community forecast, a Metaculus Pro forecast, a question resolution, or a statement of Metaculus's views, and it is not scored or tracked on the Metaculus platform unless you make it Shared Content and Metaculus's platform rules so provide.
8.1 Probabilistic, machine-generated content. Output is generated by software, including large language models operated by AI Providers and simulations of the models you build, using Input, Metaculus Data, and other information available to the software. Artificial intelligence is probabilistic and experimental. Output may be inaccurate, incomplete, outdated, biased, internally inconsistent, or fabricated (including fabricated facts, sources, or reasoning), may differ across requests, and may not reflect the current Metaculus community forecast or the actual likelihood of any event.
8.2 Not advice. Output is provided for informational purposes only. It is not, and should not be relied on as, financial, investment, trading, legal, tax, medical, insurance, safety, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, wager on, or otherwise act with respect to any security, contract, market position, or event. Metaculus is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, commodity trading advisor, or gaming operator, does not operate a prediction market, and does not accept or facilitate wagers. Using a Covered Product does not create any advisory, fiduciary, or other special relationship between you and Metaculus.
8.3 Your responsibility. You are solely responsible for evaluating Output, for any decision or action you take in reliance on it, and for any consequences. You should independently verify Output and consult qualified professionals before acting on it. You must not use Output as the sole basis for any decision that could result in death, personal injury, or significant financial, property, environmental, or legal harm, and you must not use a Covered Product in connection with any activity where failure or inaccuracy of the Output could lead to death or personal injury.
8.4 WITHOUT LIMITING THE "DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES" AND "LIMITATIONS OF LIABILITY; WAIVER" SECTIONS OF THE TERMS, WHICH APPLY TO THE COVERED PRODUCTS AND TO ALL INPUT, OUTPUT, AND METACULUS DATA, THE COVERED PRODUCTS AND ALL OUTPUT ARE PROVIDED "AS IS," "AS AVAILABLE," AND "WITH ALL FAULTS," WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, AND THE METACULUS PARTIES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION AS TO THE ACCURACY, CALIBRATION, RELIABILITY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR USEFULNESS OF ANY OUTPUT OR ANY FORECAST, PROBABILITY, OR REASONING IT CONTAINS, AND AS TO THE CONTINUED AVAILABILITY OF ANY COVERED PRODUCT DURING OR AFTER THE EARLY ACCESS OR BETA PERIOD. YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE LIMITATIONS OF LIABILITY IN THE TERMS, INCLUDING THE CAP ON THE METACULUS PARTIES' TOTAL LIABILITY, APPLY TO ANY CLAIM ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO A COVERED PRODUCT, INPUT, OR OUTPUT, AND THAT AMOUNTS PAID FOR CREDITS ARE THE ONLY AMOUNTS "PAID BY YOU TO METACULUS" FOR PURPOSES OF THAT CAP.
9.1 Free tier. Metaculus may offer some or all of a Covered Product free of charge, including through granted Credits or periodic Credit allowances, subject to usage limits. Metaculus may change or discontinue free access, or convert any feature to a paid feature, at any time on notice posted to the Service or sent to you.
9.2 Credits. Metaculus may grant, and may in the future sell, Credits for use of a Covered Product. Credits are consumed at the rates shown in the product at the time of use. Metaculus may change rates and the Credit cost of any feature prospectively on notice; changes do not affect Credits already consumed. Credits are not money, have no cash value, are not redeemable for cash, may not be transferred, sold, or shared, and may be used only by the account that purchased or received them.
9.3 Expiration. Granted or promotional Credits, including periodic allowances, expire as stated when granted (for example, at the end of the allowance period) or, if no period is stated, ninety (90) days after grant. If Metaculus offers Credits for purchase, purchased Credits expire twelve (12) months after purchase unless Metaculus states otherwise at the time of purchase. Expired Credits are forfeited without refund. All Credits are forfeited on termination of your account for breach of the Terms or this Supplement.
9.4 Payment (if Credits are offered for purchase).If Metaculus offers Credits for purchase, you must be at least 18 years old to purchase them, and you agree to pay all fees for Credits you purchase, plus applicable taxes. Payments are processed by a third-party payment processor, and are subject to the processor's terms and privacy policy. You authorize Metaculus and its processor to charge your payment method for the amounts you approve at checkout. Metaculus does not receive or store your full payment card number.
9.5 No refunds. Except as required by applicable law or as expressly stated by Metaculus at the time of purchase, all purchases of Credits are final and non-refundable, including for unused or expired Credits and Credits consumed by Output that you consider unsatisfactory. If Metaculus permanently discontinues a Covered Product, Metaculus will, at its option, refund the purchase price of unused purchased Credits or provide notice and a reasonable period to use them.
9.6 Chargebacks and disputes. If you dispute a charge with your payment provider, Metaculus may suspend your access to the Covered Product and your Credits pending resolution. You agree to contact Metaculus at support@metaculus.com before initiating a chargeback.
9.7 Consumers outside the United States. If you are a consumer in a jurisdiction that grants you a statutory right to cancel a purchase of digital content or services, you acknowledge and agree that the Covered Product is made available to you, and you begin consuming Credits, immediately upon purchase, and you consent to immediate performance and acknowledge that you may lose your cancellation right once performance begins, to the extent permitted by law.
10.1 Host Platform terms govern the Host Platform.When you access a Covered Product through a Host Platform, your use of the Host Platform is governed by the Host Platform provider's own terms, usage policies, and privacy policy, not by this Supplement. Metaculus does not control Host Platforms, is not a party to your agreement with them, and is not responsible for their availability, conduct, security, data practices, or handling of your Input or Output. The "Third Party Links, Content and Applications" section of the Terms applies to Host Platforms.
10.2 Data flows.You understand that Input you submit through a Host Platform passes through, and may be stored and processed by, the Host Platform provider before it reaches Metaculus, and that Output returned to a Host Platform will be processed by that provider and may be retained, displayed, or used by it under its own policies. Metaculus is responsible only for Input and Output while in Metaculus's systems and those of its service providers, as described in the AI Products Privacy Notice.
10.3 Host Platform policies. You must comply with the usage policies of any Host Platform through which you access a Covered Product, and Metaculus may suspend or restrict access through a Host Platform if required by the Host Platform provider or to comply with those policies.
10.4 Availability.Metaculus may add, change, or discontinue support for any Host Platform at any time. A Host Platform provider may also remove or restrict a Covered Product without Metaculus's consent.
11.1 Metaculus may suspend, limit, or terminate your access to a Covered Product, revoke Credentials, or impose usage limits at any time, with or without notice, including for actual or suspected violation of this Supplement, unusual or abusive usage patterns, security concerns, non-payment, or as required by law or a Host Platform. The "Account Registration & Termination" and "Account Cancellation" sections of the Terms apply.
11.2 On termination of your access to a Covered Product, your license under Section 5.1 ends and unused Credits are forfeited, except as Section 9.5 provides. Sections 5.3, 5.4, 6 (as provided in Section 6.9), 7, 8, 9, and 11 through 13 survive termination.
11.3 Metaculus may modify this Supplement in accordance with the "Changes" section of the Terms. Changes to the "Legal Disputes" section of the Terms are governed by the procedures in that section.
The "Legal Disputes" section of the Terms, including its binding arbitration agreement, class action waiver, governing law (California), and forum provisions, applies to any dispute arising out of or relating to a Covered Product, this Supplement, Input, Output, or Credits. Please read it carefully.
Questions about a Covered Product or this Supplement, including billing questions and deletion requests, may be sent to Metaculus, Inc., 1112 Montana Ave. Ste. 464, Santa Monica, CA 90403, or by email to support@metaculus.com. Privacy inquiries may be sent to legal@metaculus.com.