Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=5880
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Yeah, then you might want to stop reading right now. Consider yourself warned, normie. \nYou might be wondering, who or what is Q or QAnon? The answer varies significantly depending upon who you [ask](https://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/newscms/2018_33/2529156/180813-qanon-trump-rally-wilkes-barre-njs-1027_a29496ea9831fdfae4c20d06540223aa.fit-2000w.jpg)\nAsk a supporter of QAnon and they will tell you that Q is a high ranking military official who is leaking clues about what is really going on in the world. By following these breadcrumbs, which normies miss because they only follow the MSM (mainstream media), you can discover a set of alarming facts about the world. Donald Trump is working with George Mueller in order to take down Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton, and other liberals who are part of an [international child sex trafficking ring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon). The Deep State is going after Donald Trump, trying to take down his presidency, but he won’t let this coup occur. Their rallying cry is “The storm is coming” a reference to [Trump's cryptic claim](http://time.com/4971738/donald-trump-calm-before-the-storm-military-white-house/). All that you need to do is [‘Trust the Plan’](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/8/1/17253444/qanon-trump-conspiracy-theory-reddit) because Donald Trump is going to fight this evil group of liberal elites. #WWG1WGA “Where We Go One, We Go All”.\n\nAsk someone who isn’t a member of QAnon and they will tell you that this is the newest iteration in the long list of American conspiracy theories. Think the Da Vinci Code meets your paranoid uncle that lives in his prepper shelter. This movement began on internet discussion boards and spread like wildfire to popular sites like Youtube and Reddit. Ultimately it made its way into the real world at the Trump Rally on July 31, 2018 in Tampa, FL. You can readily see that QAnon supporters were out in full force (you can tell by their [fly gear](https://www.amazon.com/Anon-Patriotic-Flag-Where-Qanon/dp/B07DX9CD52/ref=pd_lpo_vtph_193_bs_img_1?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=75RJHVVY9CA2KE3JDVRF&dpID=41dV8q-f-8L&preST=_SX342_QL70_&dpSrc=detail)) \n\nNow that you know something about QAnon, let’s move on to the question. This [NBC news article](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/how-three-conspiracy-theorists-took-q-sparked-qanon-n900531) posits that Tracy Diaz, Christina Urso, and Coleman Rogers are responsible for the spreading of QAnon. \n>In November 2017, a small-time YouTube video creator (_Tracy Diaz_) and two moderators of the 4chan website (_Christina Urso and Coleman Rogers_), one of the most extreme message boards on the internet, banded together and plucked out of obscurity an anonymous and cryptic post from the many conspiracy theories that populated the website's message board. From: [How three conspiracy theorists took 'Q' and sparked Qanon](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/how-three-conspiracy-theorists-took-q-sparked-qanon-n900531) (_names added_)\n\nWho is Coleman Rogers and why would anyone think that he is part of QAnon? \n>A review of Rogers’ Facebook page shows he had been active in internet politics and a staunch supporter of Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign, self-identifying as part of the “meme war” — the creation and dissemination of images and internet-style commentary that internet agitators on the chans and Reddit credit with Trump’s win. Rogers often posted memes about “liberal tears” as well as the ludicrous claims that Democrats murdered children and worshipped Satan — details similar to those that would eventually form the Qanon theory. (ibid)\n\nSo he has a history of spreading absurd lies on the interwebs. What else? \n>Within a month (_of being kicked off Reddit_), Rogers, 31, and his wife, Christina Urso, 29, had launched the Patriots’ Soapbox, a round-the-clock livestreamed YouTube channel for Qanon study and discussion. The channel is, in effect, a broadcast of a Discord chatroom with constant audio commentary from a rotating cast of volunteers and moderators with sporadic appearances by Rogers and Urso. In April, Urso registered Patriots’ Soapbox LLC in Virginia. Rogers and Urso use their channel to call for donations that are accepted through PayPal, cryptocurrencies or mail.”( _parenthetical added_ ibid)\n\nPerhaps they are merely profiting off of this cultural phenomenon. However, some believe that Rogers really is Q.\n>Some YouTube channels, like one named Unirock, are mostly dedicated to poring over Patriots’ Soapbox livestreams and dissecting purported slip-ups. One archived livestream appears to show Rogers logging into the 8chan account of “Q.”The Patriots’ Soapbox feed quickly cuts out after the login attempt. “Sorry, leg cramp,” Rogers says, before the feed reappears seconds later. (ibid)\n\n*** Resolution criteria: Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q by September 16th? ***\n\nMaybe we’ll get lucky and [Anonymous](https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/anonymous-qanon-donald-trump-latest-truth-identity-hacking-a8481511.html) will do the dirty work for us and unmask the real Q. Otherwise this could be difficult to resolve. If Rogers has been perpetuating the myth of Q in order to make money then he wouldn't be terribly likely to be forthright about it. Given that difficulty, this question will use consensus forming to create its own answer on whether Rogers is indeed Q (individually, or as a member of a team). Note that the close date will follow the September 16th revelation deadline by two weeks so that we have sufficient time for the community to build a consensus and thus adjudicate. \n\n- If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 90%, then the question resolves positive.\n\n- If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 10%, then the question resolves negative.\n\n- If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 10% and ≤ 90%, then the question author (Ben, the Arbiter of Truth) shall decide resolution. \n\nIt is important to note that by asking the question concerning the identity of Q, we are missing the [point](https://twitter.com/D3M0_Anon/status/1026464797133422593).\n>The funniest thing about those who try to discredit Q.. They focus on whether Q is real or not, instead of the information being provided. NO ONE cares who Q is. WE care about the TRUTH. Factual evidence. 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T02:14:00.883673Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1367, "title": "Will OpenAI Five win the majority of its DotA 2 matches at The International?", "created_at": "2018-08-16T17:33:46.131463Z", "open_time": "2018-08-17T07:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-17T11:56:44.647688Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-17T11:56:44.647688Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-24T15:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-24T15:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-08-24T15:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-20T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-20T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game [DotA 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2). \n\nOn August 5th, [OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark-results/), and now, fresh off their victory, they're [headed to the big show](https://openai.com/the-international/): [The International](http://www.dota2.com/international/overview/), with its $20 million dollar purse. \n\nDetails on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, however, so this question will have to remain fairly general.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will OpenAI's system win more games than it loses at The International?*** \n\nThe question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1367, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1534737162.156383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1534737162.156383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8074430609196419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049957670217226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11855578058059343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3061620984667782, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.429368094000161, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.4019573924169173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11393380704619725, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0325062424487754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2750046227565049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09480739749388378, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 1.4927256853898254, 0.8468350581457018, 0.3337872932516758, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8606480514669324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5376013253893581 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.645276726312437, "coverage": 0.9962275535882121, "baseline_score": -142.5148795615244, "spot_peer_score": 54.56623825107409, "peer_archived_score": 13.645276726312437, "baseline_archived_score": -142.5148795615244, "spot_peer_archived_score": 54.56623825107409 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1534737162.172956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1534737162.172956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4609601137333549, 0.5390398862666451 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game [DotA 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2). \n\nOn August 5th, [OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark-results/), and now, fresh off their victory, they're [headed to the big show](https://openai.com/the-international/): [The International](http://www.dota2.com/international/overview/), with its $20 million dollar purse. \n\nDetails on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, however, so this question will have to remain fairly general." }, { "id": 1383, "title": "Short-fuse question: Will OpenAI Five win the *first* of its DotA 2 matches at The International?", "short_title": "OpenAI Five first DotA 2 match", "url_title": "OpenAI Five first DotA 2 match", "slug": "openai-five-first-dota-2-match", "author_id": 8, "author_username": "Anthony", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-16T17:33:46.131463Z", 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2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T02:14:00.883673Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1383, "title": "Short-fuse question: Will OpenAI Five win the *first* of its DotA 2 matches at The International?", "created_at": "2018-08-16T17:33:46.131463Z", "open_time": "2018-08-21T16:02:13.733000Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-21T23:04:03.702089Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-21T23:04:03.702089Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-08-23T03:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-08-23T03:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-08-23T03:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-22T23:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-22T23:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, 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These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game [DotA 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2). \n\nOn August 5th, [OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark-results/), and now, fresh off their victory, they're [headed to the big show](https://openai.com/the-international/): [The International](http://www.dota2.com/international/overview/), with its $20 million dollar purse. \n\nDetails on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, but it appears a match will be played Wednesday Aug. 22.", "resolution_criteria": "***Will OpenAI's system win the first game it plays at The International?*** \n\nThe question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. Closes retroactively 10 minutes prior to start of the first match.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1534995688.026865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1534995688.026865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6533338289815876 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.4693194472745804, 0.8614515034171684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36374709463819416, 0.2672778586436126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3853915778427911, 0.42818515432916227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.573672119114876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0720092140769162, 0.21127762784985343, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609704774759386, 1.2674990878959105 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.109469900781303, "coverage": 0.9516596383903386, "baseline_score": -116.32008340284206, "spot_peer_score": 76.58164652849399, "peer_archived_score": 19.109469900781303, "baseline_archived_score": -116.32008340284206, "spot_peer_archived_score": 76.58164652849399 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1534965954.59074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1534965954.59074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4898607795531891, 0.5101392204468109 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game [DotA 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dota_2). \n\nOn August 5th, [OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players](https://blog.openai.com/openai-five-benchmark-results/), and now, fresh off their victory, they're [headed to the big show](https://openai.com/the-international/): [The International](http://www.dota2.com/international/overview/), with its $20 million dollar purse. \n\nDetails on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, but it appears a match will be played Wednesday Aug. 22." }, { "id": 1365, "title": "Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-8-september-2018-will-the-uk-request-an-extension-to-article-50-for-leaving-the-eu", "author_id": 104439, "author_username": "IARPA Question Bot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-15T19:30:40.279106Z", "published_at": "2018-08-18T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.757621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-18T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T21:11:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-18T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1365, "title": "Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?", "created_at": "2018-08-15T19:30:40.279106Z", "open_time": "2018-08-18T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-18T22:10:10.584134Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-18T22:10:10.584134Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-08T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-08T21:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-07T18:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html).*\n\nThe United Kingdom (UK) is scheduled to withdraw from the European Union (EU) on 29 March 2019, a date that was set when Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29 March 2017. This question will resolve as \"yes\" if the UK requests an extension to the Article 50 deadline to delay the UK's exit from the EU. (<a href=\"https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39143978\"target=\"_blank\">BBC Brexit</a>; <a href= \"https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/26/eight-months-to-brexit-what-happens-next\"target=\"_blank\">The Guardian Brexit</a>)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1365, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1536341012.279084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1536341012.279084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.051102019616371834 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.538976655806808, 0.3358639927376932, 0.0625760055549752, 0.9527807163471547, 1.0238413887202158, 0.0, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21805122481294378, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1741298993175201, 0.0, 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{ "id": 1362, "title": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "created_at": "2018-08-14T15:08:20.004622Z", "open_time": "2018-09-01T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-09-01T15:58:23.478220Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-09-01T15:58:23.478220Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-31T23:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-31T23:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In light of continued rumblings that Trump could, in fact, [take a face-to-face meeting with Robert Mueller](https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/06/politics/donald-trump-rudy-giuliani-robert-mueller/index.html), let's reissue the [previous version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/633/will-donald-trump-submit-to-questioning-under-oath-to-special-council-muellers-investigation-of-russian-interference-in-the-us-presidential-election/) with a new deadline.\n\nFor now, let's see if his legal team can convince him to put it off through the end of the year. And additionally, let's stipulate that the interview (or whatever it ends up being called) need not be under oath, and it is not necessary for Trump to verbally answer questions on any one topic, e.g. obstruction. And as with the last version of this prediction, \"the interview need not be broadcast or publicly accessible, but it should be in-person (not for example written responses to questions) and interrogatory (i.e. not a single statement made verbally under oath, nor just answers with no followups to questions that are known to Trump+team in advance.)\n\nResolution will be negative if Trump testifies before a grand jury before being interviewed by one Mueller's team.\"\n\nResolves positive if Trump sits with Mueller for questioning before 12/31/2018.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1362, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1537351339.971863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1537351339.971863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], 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Given that the first launch of the Dragon V2 (SpaceX's first human rated vehicle) is slated for a first crewed flight in April 2019 (as of the writing of this question) and that flight schedules are only extremely rarely moved forward, that question will almost certainly resolve negatively.\n\nYet, it is unclear whether further launch delays will push the date of the first crewed test-flight even further into the future, perhaps even beyond 2019.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2020 at 00:00 UTC?</strong>\n\nShould the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. 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Funding secured.\" \n\nIn the days since, there has been no followup information about what funding has been secured. 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Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \n\nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \n\nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763713572.356667, "end_time": 1764419817.871989, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763713572.356667, "end_time": 1764419817.871989, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12056678003802619 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.6747029002804723, 1.7764034572224077, 0.2990786581517114, 0.7977753661144689, 0.0, 2.3714866343957848, 0.7609965899777439, 0.43782470350779906, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0861734962045344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5935735468969371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36269734845126494, 0.1130426062565061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05662137545538541, 0.3769320081740729, 0.0, 0.01851424336049953, 0.17626588926028144, 0.0, 0.2643811210176859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7204354028798327, 0.0, 1.0044090642414873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1260496594601625, 0.18691676533295776, 0.18328559947510098, 0.0, 0.20027086012739792, 0.0918418384539099, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.10487932907659522, 0.0, 0.07256240399382982, 0.10781321990609702, 0.051194937221626276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0361372874092818, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.005819522702150025, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004280041816184154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03010603556612766, 0.015028924156914286 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287235.719131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287235.719131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9812819641263536, 0.018718035873646365 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 25, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 326, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \n\nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \n\nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans." }, { "id": 1347, "title": "Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-significant-increase-in-worldwide-search-interest-in-the-term-power-outage-reported-by-google-trends-between-24-august-2018-and-7-september-2018", "author_id": 104439, "author_username": "IARPA Question Bot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-08T19:30:22.318020Z", "published_at": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.768619Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-08-23T18:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-23T18:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-10T13:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-10T13:31:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2964, "type": "question_series", "name": "IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-03-30T07:00:00Z", "close_date": "2018-09-08T18:01:32Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.635650Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:49.489209Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 1347, "title": "Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?", "created_at": "2018-08-08T19:30:22.318020Z", "open_time": "2018-08-11T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-12T23:59:03.834504Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-12T23:59:03.834504Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-10T13:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-10T13:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-10T13:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-08-23T18:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-08-23T18:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This question was generated from the [IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge](https://www.iarpa.gov/challenges/gfchallenge.html).*\n\nGoogle Trends tracks how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest value for the given region and period of interest. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term during the period of interest. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term. This question will resolve as ‘yes’ if Google Trends shows a 50-point or greater increase of interest in the search term from one day to the next during the period of interest. To access the relevant data, from <a href= \"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore\"target=\"_blank\">Google Trends</a>:\n- Enter the search term of interest (as a ‘Search term’ not a ‘Topic’);\n- Make sure 'Worldwide' is selected for the geographic area; \n- Use the drop-down field to enter a ‘Custom time range’ corresponding to the period of interest;\n- Click the down arrow in the top right of the 'Interest over time' chart to download the data to a CSV file. \nThis question will be resolved at the end of the period of interest.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1347, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1535030464.644299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1535030464.644299, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 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"Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-go-private-prior-to-2020", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-08T14:55:08.079160Z", "published_at": "2018-08-09T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.598489Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-09T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T15:25:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-09T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 172, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32606, "name": "2018-2019 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_2019_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1345, "title": "Will Tesla go private prior to 2020?", "created_at": "2018-08-08T14:55:08.079160Z", "open_time": "2018-08-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-09T14:24:26.031829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-09T14:24:26.031829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-12-31T15:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-12-31T15:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On August 7th 2018, Elon Musk sent out a series of Tweets stating that he was contemplating taking Tesla private. Musk tweeted, 'Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.' He later tweeted, '… Will be way smoother & less disruptive as a private company. Ends negative propaganda from shorts.' Tesla has been battling significant short selling for months and Musk has been known to feud with short sellers on Twitter.\n\nMusk's Twitter announcement has been widely debated already, with many people expressing skepticism about whether Musk is really intending to take Tesla private. Nevertheless, Tesla's stock surged 10.99% after the Tweets. (Musk's Tweets have been known to move the stock price, but this must be a new record!)\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will Tesla be a private company at some point prior to 2020?</strong>\n\nThe question resolved positive if, on some day prior to January 1st 2020, Tesla is no longer listed on any public stock exchange. Resolution is by credible media report. Should the resolution triggering report be released while the question is still open, the question shall close retroactively one week prior to the time of the release of the report.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1345, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1546221142.23631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1546221142.23631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.16007854867565194 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.068313784354771, 1.3390908709077776, 0.11442684806096, 0.7735712758030354, 1.0561123989714358, 0.6983407358090807, 0.5560786034062944, 1.4301952383158316, 0.0, 2.640842817102774, 1.0185534940143872, 1.0918614233167614, 0.0, 0.09969363695252417, 2.165062937775953, 0.005641399446662172, 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Two currently open questions concern the future relationship of the UK and the EU:\n\n* [Brexit Negotiations completed by March 2019](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/436/brexit-negotiations-completed-by-march-2019/) asks whether a Brexit deal will be signed and ratified by March 2019.\n* [Will the UK actually leave the EU](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1301/will-the-uk-actually-leave-the-eu/) asks if Brexit will happen at all.\n\nIf no further agreement is reached, the UK will leave the EU by default on 29 March 2019, two years after triggering Article 50. (Importantly, even an extension of this deadline would require an explicit agreement.) This possibility of a \"no-deal\" Brexit is being discussed with increasing concern, as it would have a radical impact on the economy and many aspects of public life (from free movement to food and medicine supply).\n\nThis question asks: **Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on schedule ([March 29 2019 at 23:00 UK time](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887)) It resolves negatively if any deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents this (including an agreement to extend the deadline, or to abandon Brexit entirely). 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[updated version]", "created_at": "2018-08-07T21:10:15.933085Z", "open_time": "2019-03-21T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2019-03-22T00:30:00.893701Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2019-03-22T00:30:00.893701Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-03-31T18:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-03-31T18:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-03-31T18:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2019-03-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2019-03-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*This is a duplicate question of [Will there be a \"no-deal\" Brexit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1336/will-there-be-a-no-deal-brexit/) intended to offer updated predictions on the question of a no-deal Brexit. To avoid the double-giving of points for the same question, this question will resolve ambiguous with an added 1/2 chance. Hence, in expectation, this question is worth only half the amount of points of a non-duplicated question.*\n\n----\n\n**Will the UK leave the EU without reaching any agreement?**\n\nThis question resolves positively if a no-deal Brexit occurs on schedule ([March 29 2019 at 23:00 UK time](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887)) It resolves negatively if Brexit is delayed, or if a deal between the UK and the EU is reached that prevents the UK's leaving before, or on March 29. Otherwise, it resolves ambiguous.\n\nThis question also resolves ambiguous if [@dailyrandomnums](https://twitter.com/dailyrandomnums?lang=en) tweets a random dice roll that ends on a 1-3 (inclusive) on March 30th.\n\n*Related question: [Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2667/will-the-uk-leave-the-eu-without-a-deal-by-april-12th/)*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 2662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1553727272.139495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1553727272.139495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.12093340706097158 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.36920058953463, 0.9578133826121326, 0.522478330967627, 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"question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T00:12:38.521719Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1335, "title": "Will a \"Deepfake\" video about a national U.S. political candidate running for office in 2018 get 2M+ views?", "created_at": "2018-08-07T13:17:03.258022Z", "open_time": "2018-08-09T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-09T21:37:59.799034Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-09T21:37:59.799034Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2019-03-09T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2019-03-09T15:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2019-03-09T15:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We live in wild times. Last year, the Metaculus community [debated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/204/a-is-in-the-i-of-the-beholder-1-wait-is-this-video-for-real/) whether we'd witness \"a wide-scale hoax be created using video-alteration technology to put words in a famous figure's mouth.\"\n\nUnsurprisingly, we were ahead of the game.\n\n2018 has already witnessed massive progress in the [field of AI](https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-says-it-wont-allow-its-artificial-intelligence-in-military-weapons-1528398091), and comedian Jordan Peele recently posted [this fake](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ54GDm1eL0) (but impressively real-seeming) video of President Obama addressing the nation about the dangers of fake political views. The fake Obama signed off by warning Americans to \"stay woke, b****es!\"", "resolution_criteria": "In light of all this, Tim Hwang, director of MIT's Media Lab, [posed a bet](https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/robotics/artificial-intelligence/experts-bet-on-first-deepfakes-political-scandal) among colleagues in the field: \"[will] someone... create a so-called Deepfake video about a political candidate that receives more than 2 million views before getting debunked by the end of 2018?\"\n\n> The bet has attracted more than a dozen experts from both technology and social science backgrounds, with Hwang acting as the bookie. Many involved in the wager seem to fall into the “no” camp think Deepfake videos will not make a huge splash during the campaign season for the 2018 U.S. midterm elections. But more agree that the technology could become more problematic by the next U.S. presidential election in 2020. \n\nThe boffins may be skeptical, but what do you think? \n\n*** Will a Deepfake video, qualifying per Hwang's criteria, throw the electorate for a loop during the midterm elections? ***\n\nResolution will be decides by the resolution of Hwang's bet, resolving positive if [per the article](https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/robotics/artificial-intelligence/experts-bet-on-first-deepfakes-political-scandal) Manhattans are consumed, negative if tropical tiki drinks are, and ambiguous if the bet is not settled by March 2019. (Just in case of delay or the obstacles in consumption of drinks, a credible media report that the bet is settled will also do.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1541019851.808571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1541019851.808571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1983161451302231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11034076491995458, 0.02951742757107075, 0.30340764848359014, 0.13533528323661267, 1.7137305895831032, 1.2732549441810863, 0.0, 0.47058026059072494, 0.0, 1.0937379680487165, 0.3915107710373727, 0.026921361684113475, 0.16448341487323453, 0.05226582054453029, 1.398755555656175, 0.9603874324765652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.927035140919694, 0.028071441713923298, 0.0, 0.7541212514821088, 0.6365881256219981, 1.1502920146077305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013439135885649942, 0.0, 0.14304257545453014, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.07983060350162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8230021134079578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00794377983935923, 0.0, 0.02022207425341368, 0.0, 0.3455057246259332, 0.21943807023132875, 0.04204359994762325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039993336954830906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035325657047716695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1010847436907371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001739341494305002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003942665013892356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007892627007367302 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 38.905051133532275, "coverage": 0.9985158345465283, "baseline_score": 63.191112328192176, "spot_peer_score": -0.1842838586465519, "peer_archived_score": 38.905051133532275, "baseline_archived_score": 63.191112328192176, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.1842838586465519 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1540997057.89074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1540997057.89074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8945537831477506, 0.10544621685224938 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 141, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We live in wild times. Last year, the Metaculus community [debated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/204/a-is-in-the-i-of-the-beholder-1-wait-is-this-video-for-real/) whether we'd witness \"a wide-scale hoax be created using video-alteration technology to put words in a famous figure's mouth.\"\n\nUnsurprisingly, we were ahead of the game.\n\n2018 has already witnessed massive progress in the [field of AI](https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-says-it-wont-allow-its-artificial-intelligence-in-military-weapons-1528398091), and comedian Jordan Peele recently posted [this fake](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQ54GDm1eL0) (but impressively real-seeming) video of President Obama addressing the nation about the dangers of fake political views. The fake Obama signed off by warning Americans to \"stay woke, b****es!\"" }, { "id": 1333, "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-jr-be-charged-with-a-crime-by-christmas-day-2018", "author_id": 105927, "author_username": "chipman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-07T02:18:10.480068Z", "published_at": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.388741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-11-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-25T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-25T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1333, "title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Christmas Day 2018?", "created_at": "2018-08-07T02:18:10.480068Z", "open_time": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-11T05:08:55.043755Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-11T05:08:55.043755Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-12-25T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-12-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-12-25T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-11-29T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-11-29T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "**update to: [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/599/will-donald-trump-jr-be-charge-with-a-crime-by-presidents-day-2018/)**\n\nDominos continue to fall in Mueller's investigation of involvement of Russia in the 2016 presidential election.\n\nAs of question writing, Papadopoulos was charged, pled guilty, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. Paul Manafort has been charged but pled innocent. Michael Flynn has pled guilty to a single charge of lying to the FBI, and is apparently cooperating with the FBI. On July 16, a Russian gun rights advocate with ties to the NRA, Maria Butina, was charged with crimes of conspiracy. A witness claimed that Butina met with Trump Jr. in mid-2016.\n\nThere is widespread sentiment that these relatively \"light\" charges were filed primarily to acquire cooperation, as well as leave charges on the table that could be brought at a state level in the event of a presidential pardon.\n\nWhat happens next?\n\nJared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr. have been at the center of campaign operations from the start, privy to many of the meetings and events that are under investigation. Kushner skated [through to Tax Day](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/580/will-jared-kushner-be-charged-with-a-crime-by-thanksgiving/) and Trump Jr. made it past [Father's Day](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/599/will-donald-trump-jr-be-charge-with-a-crime-by-presidents-day-2018/) without a scratch, but Paul Manafort, of course, [was not quite so lucky.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/515/will-paul-manafort-be-charged-with-a-crime-by-halloween/) And things are getting a [little weird](https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/27/politics/mueller-trump-jr-airport-gate/index.html) in Trumpland. So, we ask:\n\n**Will Donald Trump, Jr. be charged with a crime by December 25, 2018?**\n\nAs for other questions in this series, resolution is positive if credible media report indicates that Donald Trump, Jr. has been formally charged prior to the date in question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1543471155.6326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1543471155.6326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17820801975447054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.066200424903375, 0.28207862108697745, 1.1226132096681436, 0.05371000463145658, 1.1838873985806009, 0.027478470015746236, 0.3313962470800575, 0.7640110247842163, 0.22965059634544455, 0.8864330943487279, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 1332, "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "short_title": "Malaria mortality reduction by 90%?", "url_title": "Malaria mortality reduction by 90%?", "slug": "malaria-mortality-reduction-by-90", "author_id": 106688, "author_username": "Obtainer_Of_Goods", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-06T15:55:54.586603Z", "published_at": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T18:58:41.385473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 269, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15854, "name": "Top Questions", "slug": "top-50", "emoji": "✨🔝", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1332, "title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?", "created_at": "2018-08-06T15:55:54.586603Z", "open_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-14T15:20:29.845000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-14T15:20:29.845000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the [2017 WHO Malaria report](http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/259492/9789241565523-eng.pdf?sequence=1), the WHO defines various goals for reduction of malaria burden worldwide. One of which is a 90% reduction, or more, in worldwide malaria mortality by 2030, compared with 2015 levels. (see p. 43 for current numbers, and trendlines. The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)", "resolution_criteria": "The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. 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The \"global\" value is the relevant one here.)" }, { "id": 1329, "title": "Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-latest-ebola-outbreak-be-stopped-before-it-claims-a-hundred-lives", "author_id": 103733, "author_username": "jzima", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2018-08-05T16:45:00.762289Z", "published_at": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.495858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2018-09-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-05T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:08:00Z", "open_time": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32599, "name": "2018 Leaderboard", "slug": "2018_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1329, "title": "Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?", "created_at": "2018-08-05T16:45:00.762289Z", "open_time": "2018-08-10T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-10T17:57:55.084093Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-10T17:57:55.084093Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2018-09-24T17:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2018-09-24T17:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2018-09-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2018-09-05T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was previously asked <a href='https://www.metaculus.com/questions/900/will-the-current-ebola-outbreak-be-contained-to-under-50-cases/'>whether the Ebola outbreak that began in early May 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a> would be contained to under 50 cases. That question resolved negative, but the outbreak has now ended.\n\nRegrettably, <a href=' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kivu_Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo_Ebola_virus_outbreak'>another Ebola outbreak began on August 1st 2018 in the Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo</a>. As of the writing of this question the outbreak has already claimed 33 lives. People have noted that this outbreak will be harder to fight, as it is taking place in a war zone.\n\nIt is asked:<strong>Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 100 lives?</strong>\n\nResolution is by credible media report. 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "It was <a href=' https://www.metaculus.com/questions/652/will-bitcoins-energy-consumption-double-again/'>previously asked</a> whether Bitcoin's energy consumption (as estimated by <a href='https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption'>digiconomist</a>) would exceed 100 TWh/yr before 2018 is up.\n\nWhile that question hasn't resolved yet, one can see that energy consumption is no longer going up as rapidly as it used to. If energy consumption should miss the 100 TWh/yr target, it might be interesting to know by how much.\n\nTherefore, it is asked:<strong>Will <a href='https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption'>Bitcoin's estimated energy consumption</a> fail to reach a value of at least 80 TWh/yr on some day within 2018?</strong>\n\nShould the digiconomist site stop operating or significantly change its methodology within 2018 the question shall resolve ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1535938961.692175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1535938961.692175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4074667013635906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 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"artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 1321, "title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?", "created_at": "2018-08-01T13:53:26.311757Z", "open_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2018-08-05T23:27:18.126126Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2018-08-05T23:27:18.126126Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, 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He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to <a href=' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity'>technological singularity</a>, which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found <a href='https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil'>here</a>.\n\n<strong>Will Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?</strong>\n\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\n\n<li>If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative.</li>\n\n<li> If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. </li>\n\nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363743.728601, "end_time": 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null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Although we're still several months away from official candidate announcements, let's put our politics brains in and think about who might be yelling at Donald Trump on a stage in 2019. \n\nSo far, the only major candidate to have declared candidacy for the Democratic party nomination is John Delaney, a Congressman from Maryland. That's no surprise, since in the run-up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton announced her candidacy on April 12, 2015. Donald Trump formally began his campaign two months later, on June 16. Bernie Sanders announced his candidacy on the 29th of April. \n\nStill, it's a fair bet that many of the big names will be in the running early on, including Kirsten Gillibrand, Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, and perhaps even wild cards such as Oprah Winfrey, Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson, and Joe Biden. But few potential nominees are generating as many headlines right now as Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, who for the purposes of this question, are the frontrunners for the nomination.\n\n**Will one of Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 presidential election?**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1583203898.588541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1583203898.588541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 247, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5306563475468627 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12489650190959753, 0.003131136396226416, 7.186902402522751e-06, 0.0026898370205257886, 0.22853802541804402, 2.9689086922319836e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On June 27, Justice Anthony Kennedy announced that he would retire from the Supreme Court, giving President Trump his 2nd SCOTUS nomination in as many years. On July 9, Brett Kavanaugh was announced as Trump's nominee for the vacated seat. Before he can hear a single argument, however, he must be confirmed by the Senate in a simple majority vote. \n\nBy law, SCOTUS reconvenes in early October, allowing at least three full months for the process to conclude. Kavanaugh has already provided thousands of pages of documents [for review.] (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/21/kavanaugh-supreme-court-questionnaire-senate-judiciary-735551)\n\nOver the last 42 years, excluding nominees like Merrick Garland who did not receive a vote, the confirmation of a Court nominee has taken an [average of 67 days](https://www.nbcnews.com/card/how-long-does-it-take-confirm-supreme-court-judge-n735771) Kavanaugh faces the lowest public approval figures of any nominee in more than a decade and considerable opposition from Democratic leaders.\n\n**Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before November 6, 2018? Kavanaugh need not be the confirmed Justice for question to resolve as positive.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 1318, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1535499805.773347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1535499805.773347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6808209773023027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7912793091199047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596432114486756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008335175629822337, 0.4008021578256057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.15848797594754765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5499123981425624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04961809028037504, 0.0344326025214608, 0.0, 0.0007129919161079304, 0.031301113244932864, 0.4274130675954733, 0.013550184787389273, 0.38968791369466316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015001888581824569, 0.020975031716262728, 0.25154229098625835, 1.077498116635496, 0.0, 1.1936825211518451, 0.0, 0.9437171652598805, 1.0761484718592405, 0.1746733991801891, 1.019997399411905, 0.0, 0.08934446028684764, 0.0, 0.3082206783863093, 2.79288059100575, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.4515328417238911, 0.0, 0.10465042170671407, 0.3876872998258092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2347694085184629, 0.0, 0.002007702400494954, 0.045388810230191125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004778496854644452, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.500452638692538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1711016801415064 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.56686755329145, "coverage": 0.9917177841107295, "baseline_score": 48.218883375116086, "spot_peer_score": 2.1598051898202466, "peer_archived_score": 11.56686755329145, "baseline_archived_score": 48.218883375116086, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1598051898202466 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1535490775.91536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1535490775.91536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45594334596715413, 0.5440566540328459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 136, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
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