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Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again?
Over the last year the popularity of Bitcoin, and various other cryptocurrencies, rose dramatically. One factor that is sometimes overlooked, though, is the huge energy consumption that bitcoin mining - according to its current algorithmic structure - necessarily entails.
Digiconomist has done a good job tracking the approximate energy consumption of the Bitcoin blockchain. As of the writing of this question the annualized rate of energy consumption of Bitcoin is nearly 50 TWh/yr and a single bitcoin transaction requires an amount of energy that could power an average American home for over 3 weeks and emits over a third of a ton of CO2.
Digiconomist also projects further increases in energy consumption, which would have energy consumption doubling before 2019.
It is asked:Will Digiconomist's estimate of Bitcoin's energy consumption reach 100 TWh/yr prior to 2019?
This question resolves positive if the value reported by Digiconomist for 'Bitcoin's current estimated annual electricity consumption' is reported as over 100 TWh/yr for at least one day prior to January 1st 2019. There are daily updates, so this one should be quite easy to check.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.